1. Bush/Rumsfeld Defense Priorities/Objectives A Mandate For Change
Bush Priorities
Develop the capabilities to defend against missiles, terrorism, and threats against space assets and information systems
Create the military of the new century by taking advantage of new possibilities offered by the ongoing Technological Revolution
Rumsfeld objectives for deterring and defending against new threats
Modernize US C3I capabilities
Modern C3I infrastructure is the foundation upon which military power rests and is fundamental to the transformation of US military forces. We must also strengthen our intelligence capabilities and space capabilities and protect those assaults against various forms of attack
Transform US Defense establishment --- by swiftly introducing new weapon systems.
Technology as enabler for transformation to address new threats

2. Some Concepts Associated With Transformation
Asymmetric uncertain threats and new demanding missions
Flexibility to dominate over spectrum of operations
Agile dispersed forces networked by C4ISR to enable new warfighting concepts
Network centric warfare and effects based outcome
Rapid decisive operations enabled by Joint Adaptive C2
Information Superiority and Decision Dominance
Tailorable assured survivable system-of-system information infrastructure
Global information Grid
Reengineered force structure, organization, doctrine, ---
Mission capability packages
Assimilation of within-reach technology while preparing for long-term less understood problems
Exploration, innovation and adaptation
Potential for fundamental changes on unprecedented scale

3. OSD Analysis Framework
Blue Battlespace Entities
Shared Awareness
Red Entities
C2 Command Concept
Suppliers
Perceptions
Intent
ROEs
Organization
Doctrine
Combat Adjudicator
Degree of
Synchronization
(Includes IO)
Shooters
Decision Behavior
Perceptions
Perceptions
Operational Outcome
Mission MOEs
Shared Information
Information Dissemination / Management
Quality of Information
Analysis
Sensors
Quality of
observations
Ground Truth

4. Modeling and Simulation for C4ISR Assessment
DoD Goal: Integrated framework for examining & understanding the casual relationship between C4ISR system performance and combat outcome (PBD 07OC)
DoD Challenge: Modeling C2 in a manner that facilitates assessment of C4ISR contribution to combat outcome
DoD Approach: Establish R&D program for modeling critical aspects of C2
Focus on modeling for C2 decision-making
Task DISA and others
DISA Strategy: Practical, Multi-Pronged Approach
Develop a five year R&D plan to improve modeling of C2 decision-making
Define and evolve initial M/S research and analysis capability
Explore approaches for modeling C2 Decision Making in the analysis of C4ISR issues of interest to DISA customers
In conjunction with with JFCOM focus experimentation to develop needed data

5. Objectives of Workshop
Improve Models for C2 Decision Making
Practical strategy
Use full C4ISR assessment capability
Credible insights regarding impact
Target opportunities for improvement
Better models for near term
Areas to focus sustained research

6. Scope and Focus of Workshop
Combat operations and scenarios
Small scale contingencies/major theater war
Analyses using the JWARS Campaign Model
Evaluation of operations plan
Assessment of C2 concepts/system mixes
Decisions in the context of the IS value chain
Quality of information (QOI), decision, combat outcome
QOI, shared awareness, collaboration, synchronization, outcome
Multi-level modeling and experimentation
Improved representation of decision making in JWARS
Improved modeling of decision-making in supporting tools
Data for key modeling parameters and variables

7. Echelon of Decision-Making
Format for Workshop
Briefings to set the stage
Operational domain oriented working groups
Operational scenarios/vignettes
Campaign
Echelon of Decision-Making
Strategic
Operational
Tactical
Korea
SWA
Disrupt by Fire
Precision Strike
Dominant Maneuver
Columbia Lebanon
Kosovo
Take the Hill
What decisions / decision elements can / should be modeled?
How might they be modeled?

8. Setting The Stage The Operational View Dr. Hayes
JWARS Capabilities LTC McIntyre
DMSO Developments LTC Bjorkman
Impact of C4ISR Dr. Hiniker
Organizational Models Dr. Serfaty
Cognitive Models Dr. Leedham

9. Modeling C2 Decision-Making Processes
Summer Workshop
July 2001
Dave Signori
RAND
Dick Hayes
EBR