1. Repeat migrations in Spain: an approximation to its determinants (Preliminary results)
Mónica Martí y Carmen Ródenas
Dpto. Análisis Económico Aplicado
Instituto Universitario de Desarrollo y Paz

2. To investigate the reasons which lead immigrants to carrying out repeat internal migrations in Spain
Aim:
To find out whether or not the facts support some of the different hypothesis about the reasons for this phenomenon
¿How?
By using a multinomial probit and a binary logit model to estimate the probability of repeat migrations for migrants

3. Outline: The causes for the repeat migrations
Data and used variables in the estimations
Brief description of the used econometric specifications
Results
Conclusions

4. 1. The causes for repeat migrations
Disappointment hypothesis
Process of optimization
Life cycle context (personal events)
Decisions not taken by the immigrant or his family
To getting administrative benefits
(false migrations)
Ejemplos

5. Migrations for migrants
2. The EVR microdata
Migrants and migrations, EVR
Migrations for migrants
Migrants %
Migrations 1
89,81
80,55 2
9,02
16,18 3
58.726
1,03
2,77 4
7.085
0,12
28.340
0,45 5
725
0,01
3.625
0,06 6 96
0,00
576 7 14 8
Total
100
In 2004, 25, 87% of movements are made by migrants who had already moved in 2003 or who would go on to move again in 2004 or 2005.

6. 32 months later
We are going to estimate the probability of repeat migrations for migrants
After a first migration, a migrant can:
Not move again
Do an onward move (ABC)
Do a return move (ABA)
Migrants who come from abroad
Migrants who come from the interior
Smaller sample
1/1/2003 36
31/12/2005
Time interval 33 18 4
Short observation period: bigger sample but unbalanced
Long observation period: smaller sample but balanced

7. Sample size (32 months) Total Not move again onward return
Comes from the interior
All
Spaniards
Foreigners
48,3%
50,2%
41,1%
25,2%
22,2%
37,3%
26,5%
27,7%
21,6%
Comes from abroad
All
Spaniards
Foreigners
54,6%
70,2%
53,0%
45,4%
29,8%
47,0% -
Total migrants
All
Spaniards ,86% Foreigners ,14%

8. Sex Interior Abroad Female Male All Not move again Return Onward 48,8
51,0
46,9
51,2
49,0
53,1
48,5
46,0
51,5
54,0
Spaniards
49,5
52,1
49,1
50,5
47,9
50,9
49,6
47,6
50,4
52,4
Foreigners
45,5
45,6
41,6
54,5
54,4
58,4
48,4
45,9
51,6
54,1

9. Age Interior 0-5 6-18 19-22 23-39 40-48 49 y + All Not move again
Return
Onward
6,9
8,7
7,0
10,6
11,5
9,6
4,0
7,4
5,6
47,0
46,4
57,5
12,6
10,8
11,0
18,9
15,2
9,3
Spaniards
7,5
9,7
8,9
11,9
10,3
3,9
5,4
44,9
43,8
54,7
12,2
10,0
20,8
16,9
10,7
Foreigners
4,1
3,6
2,6
9,8
7,8
4,9
6,1
56,9
59,5
64,3
14,5
13,7
13,4
6,6
5,8

10. Age Abroad 0-5 6-18 19-22 23-39 40-48 49 y + All Not move again Onward
4,7
4,3
14,6
11,1
7,4
10,3
44,4
56,1
11,3
17,6
7,1
Spaniards
6,1
9,7
8,5
10,4
5,6
38,4
41,9
12,0
31,3
20,5
Foreigners
4,5
3,9
15,5
7,8
10,7
45,3
57,0
15,7
6,2

11. Previous migration to the first one on record
Interior
Yes No
All
Not move again
Return
Onward
71,5
64,1
80,0
28,5
35,9
20,0
Spaniards
65,9
57,3
71,9
34,1
42,7
28,1
Foreigners
98,6
98,5
99,3
1,4
1,5
0,7

12. HDI of the origin country
IDH<0,5
0,75>IDH0,5
0,9>IDH0,75
IDH0,9
Foreigners come from the interior
Not move again
Return
Onward
3,6
3,4
4,8
21,3
25,0
28,0
61,9
66,7
60,9
13,1
4,9
6,3
Foreigners come from abroad
2,3
4,3
15,2
27,1
63,1
59,7
19,4
8,9

13. Type of the first movement
Interior
Intra-provincial
Inter-provincial
All
Not move again
Return
Onward
64,6
54,3
45,1
35,4
45,7
54,9
Spaniards
65,9
54,7
45,8
34,1
45,3
54,2
Foreigners
58,5
52,5
43,4
41,5
47,5
56,6

14. Island Interior Abroad No island All Not move again Return Onward 7,8
10,9
10,5
92,2
89,1
89,5
9,1 -
6,8
90,9
93,2
Spaniards
7,5
11,4
11,5
92,5
88,6
88,5
10,3
13,5
89,7
86,5
Foreigners
9,0
8,7
8,2
91,0
91,3
91,8
6,4
93,6

15. Municipality size (thousands of persons) Interior -10 10-20 20-50
50-100
+100
P.capital
All
Not move again
Return
Onward
29,3
27,6
25,3
13,3
13,6
15,7
16,1
16,5
10,7
11,5
11,7
8,3
9,2
22,7
23,2
23,7
Spaniards
31,3
29,2
27,0
13,5
14,0
15,5
16,0
16,6
10,1
11,3
7,4
6,9
7,6
22,0
23,0
23,5
Foreigners
19,0
19,1
21,3
11,9
12,0
12,8
16,2
13,4
12,4
12,5
15,0
13,2
26,6
24,5
24,1

16. Municipality size (thousands of persons) Abroad -10 10-20 20-50 50-100
+100
P.capital
All
Not move again
Return
15,6
19,9
10,6
11,3
15,3
15,1
12,1
11,8
10,2
11,2
36,2
30,7
Spaniards
19,4
10,3
11,5
13,0
14,7
10,4
12,0
7,3
9,1
39,5
32,8
Foreigners
12,3
35,7
30,6

17. Labour market dynamics
Socioeconomic Dimension
Province of the first destination (PCA)
Interior (mean)
Economic
Weight
Standard of living
Labour market dynamics
Productivity Growth
All
Not move again
Return
Onward
2,0
1,9
2,1
0,5
0,7
0,2
-0,1
Spaniards
1,7
0,4
0,6
0,1
Foreigners
2,6
2,4
1,0
0,9
0,3
-0,2

18. Labour market dynamics
Socioeconomic Dimension
Province of the first destination (PCA)
Abroad (mean)
Economic
Weight
Standard of living
Labour market dynamics
Productivity Growth
All
Not move again
Onward
2,6
2,5
1,0
0,4
0,3
-0,2
Spaniards
2,3
2,2
0,5
0,0
-0,1
Foreigners
2,9
2,7
0,9
0,6

19. 3.- Econometric specification
The statistic specification can be motivated as discrete-choice models in which a person maximizes her utility:
So, the probability of alternative j being chosen is:

20. Migrants who come from abroad (binary choice model)
We can fit a binary logit model, assuming that the error terms have a logistic distribution
(j= 0, 1); (i=1,…,n)
Migrants who come from the interior (multinomial choice model)
We can fit a multinomial probit model
Where  is the standard normal cdf, j= 0, 1, 2 ; i=1,…,n

21. Hausman-McFadden test of Independence of Irrelevant alternatives assumption (IIA)
Note: Hausman and McFadden indicate that a negative result is evidence that the IIA hypothesis has not been violated.

22. 4.-Results Binary logit model in terms: the relative risk ratios (RRR)
Multinomial probit model in terms: marginal effects
calculated as the change in the predicted probability when the independent variable changes from 0 to 1, in the case of binary variables, or from ½ σ below base to ½ σ above, in the case of continuous variables, holding other variables at their reference values (binary variables) or to their means (continuous variables).
Reference categories:
Sample from the interior: male, Spanish, from 23 to 39 years old, with a previous migration, first movement is intra-provincial whose destination is a municipality with less than hab., in a non island province. If he/she is a foreigner, HDI from 0,75 to 0,9.
Sample from abroad: foreigner, first destination in a province capital.

23.
Note: We only show the parameters with p-value ≤ 0,05. Moreover, the magnitudes of positive
and negative are compared by taking the inverse of the negative effect (-1/RRR).
Conclusion

24. ? ? ? ? ?
Conclusion