1. An Impact Analysis of Electrifying Florida’s Public Buses
Alicia
AER Group, Tallahassee FL
Buddy Atkins, Vesselka McAlarney,
Alicia Queen

2. Project Scope
Proterra Inc. contracted AER Group to perform an impact analysis of converting Florida public buses from diesel to electric
Direct cost savings
Indirect benefits

3. Electric Bus Alternative
The Proterra EcoRide
Equivalent lifespan of a diesel bus (12 years)
Improved fuel efficiency
Simplified motor
FastFill™ Charging Station
Discuss the charging system

4. Methodology Impact Analysis Cost Comparison Additional Benefits
Initial Investment
Cost
Comparison
Annual Expenditures
Impact
Analysis
Increased
Economic Activity
Additional
Benefits
Reduced
Externalities

5. Methodology Impact Analysis Cost Comparison Additional Benefits
Initial Investment
Cost
Comparison
Purchase Price
Facility Upgrades
Annual Expenditures
Impact
Analysis
Increased
Economic Activity
Additional
Benefits
Reduced
Externalities

6. Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Diesel
$790,000
$480,000
Alicia
Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook, 2012

7. Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Diesel
$310,000 AQ
Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook, 2012

8. Federal Grants Cover at least 80% of Initial Investment for Electric and DieselAQ
Tallahassee’s StarMetro received 100% federal funding for electric buses in 2011
Source: US Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration, NTD

9. Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Diesel, but Offset by Federal Grants
AQ end
$62,000
Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook 2012

10. Reduced Externalities
Methodology
Initial Investment
Cost
Comparison
Annual Expenditures
Impact
Analysis
Maintenance
Fuel Cost
Increased
Economic Activity
Vesselka
Additional
Benefits
Reduced Externalities

11. Electric Bus Has a Simpler Mechanical System
Engine
Engine Oil
Engine Components
Gearbox
Traction Motor
Belts
Alternator VM
Fuel Systems
Exhaust Systems
Retarder
Battery
Diesel
vs.
Electric
Proterra Inc., 2013

12. Lifetime Maintenance Costs for an Electric Bus Are Less than DieselVC
US National Transit Database,

13. Lifetime Maintenance Costs for an Electric Bus Are Less than Diesel
$112,000 VC
US National Transit Database,

14. Electricity and Diesel Price Projections Needed to Estimate Fuel Costs to 2035VC
In order to estimate the total lifetime costs for a bus, we need price projections to estimate the annual expenditures on fuel.
Source: US Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook, 2013

15. Source: US Energy Information Administration
Apply National Diesel Price Projections to Florida without Modification VC
Source: US Energy Information Administration

16. Source: US Energy Information Administration
Apply National Diesel Price Projections to Florida without Modification VC
Florida Projection
Source: US Energy Information Administration

17. Electricity Prices Vary Due To Numerous Utilities Throughout Florida
Source: Florida Public Service Commission, Facts and Figures 2013

18. Buses Concentrated in Densely Populated AreasVC
Source: Florida Department of Transportation

19. Apply National Electricity Price Projections to Florida, Reduced by 12%VC
Source: EIA, FMEA

20. Apply National Electricity Price Projections to Florida, Reduced by 12%VC
Source: EIA, FMEA

21. Electric Buses Are 5x More Fuel Efficient than Diesel
VC – “for our study, we have chosen 21 mpg as this is most relevant for buses in FL…” be sure to be familiar with the Penn state study
Source: Penn State Bus Testing and Research Center, NTD

22. Lifetime Fuel Expenditures for Electric $450K less than DieselVC
$445,000
Source: Penn State, NTD

23. Total Lifetime Cost for Electric Bus Lower than Diesel
BUDDY
Source: NTD, APTA, Proterra Inc., Penn State, EIA

24. Total Lifetime Cost for Electric Bus Lower than Diesel
$464,000
BUDDY
Source: NTD, APTA, Proterra Inc., Penn State, EIA

25. Conversion Plan – Purchase 200 Electric Buses Each Year
Full Conversion
BUDDY
To convert 2,400 over 12 years, we need to convert 200 per year

26. Annual Total Cost of Diesel Fleet and Conversion
Initial Investment
Total Cost Difference
Battery Purchase
Increased Fuel Efficiency
Initial downward from increased efficiency in system Further downward is due to same NPV and assumption issues as diesel
Full Conversion

27. Despite Initial Loss, Total Cost of Electric Fleet is $120M Less Per Year
Full Conversion
Recoupment
$120 million
Initial Deficit

28. Electric Fleet Continues to Generate Savings with Constant Federal Grants
Reference
$85 M
Constant Grants
BUDDY – can you figure out when the break even is for the no grants case?

29. Electricity and Diesel Prices Stay Constant Until 2035VC
In order to estimate the total lifetime costs for a bus, we need price projections to estimate the annual expenditures on fuel.
Source: US Energy Information Administration

30. Electricity and Diesel Prices Stay Constant Until 2035VC
In order to estimate the total lifetime costs for a bus, we need price projections to estimate the annual expenditures on fuel.
Source: US Energy Information Administration

31. Electric Fleet Continues to Generate Savings with Constant Fuel Prices
Reference
Constant Fuel Prices
$80 M
BUDDY – circle the date of the break for constant fuel prices

32. Reduced Externalities
Methodology
Initial Investment
Cost
Comparison
Annual Expenditures
Impact
Analysis
Increased
Economic Activity
Buddy
Additional
Benefits
Reduced Externalities

33. Reduced Externalities
Methodology
Initial Investment
Cost
Comparison
Annual Expenditures
Impact
Analysis
Increased
Economic Activity
Buddy
Additional
Benefits
Reduced Externalities

34. Electrifying Public Bus System May Create New Jobs
Converting to electric bus system
New power plant to meet demand by electric buses
Government diverts cost savings to other sectors
Stimulate local economy
Jobs
Personal income growth AQ

35. Additional Electricity Demand May Require a New Power Plant in Florida
Current supply and demand of electricity is in equilibrium
Charging electric buses at peak times will create unplanned demand for electricity
A new electricity plant of 85 MW may be needed
New plant may be needed because the demand for electricity by 2400 buses will push utilities over their current capacity.
Large utilities, such as those in urbanized areas where buses tend to be concentrated, are required to keep a reserve ratio of 20% (vesselka how can I explain this better? we need to tie this to show how if the utililities do not expand enough by 2025 to meet the electricity demand from 2400 buses they will eat into their reserves so even at 1% of total demand, that may be enough to necessitate a new plant of 85 MW)
Source: Florida Public Service Commission

36. Estimates produced using a regional economic model by REMI, Inc.
If a New 85 MW Electric Plant Is Built, It Will Stimulate the Florida Economy
Category
Estimate
Construction Spending
$110 million
Operating Cost
$2.5 million/year
Annual Sales
$50 million/year
New Jobs (direct & indirect)
100 permanent jobs
Personal Income Increase
$20 million AQ
If a new power plant is built, this will stimulate the Florida economy by creating jobs and increasing personal income. To model these economic effects, we used a regional economic model by REMI and we found that…
Estimates produced using a regional economic model by REMI, Inc.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Florida Public Service Commission

37. Estimates produced using a regional economic model by REMI, Inc.
Local Governments Can Divert Transit Cost Savings of $120M to Other Services
If cost savings are spent on education:
Category
Estimate
Annual Cost Savings
$120 million
New Jobs (direct & indirect)
500 permanent jobs
Personal Income Increase
$40 million AQ
In addition to stimulating the economy through electric plant expansion, converting the buses to electric could stimulate the economy if the government diverts the transit cost savings to ther government services. We modeled the effect of this increase in government spending if it were on education using the regional model and found that…
Estimates produced using a regional economic model by REMI, Inc.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, FMEA, FDOT, Proterra Inc.

38. Electrifying Public Bus System Could Reduce Negative Externalities
Since 2001, “clean diesel” has helped reduce air pollutants
CO2 emissions have not been reduced
Will conversion aid in the reduction of CO2? AQ
Source: USF Center for Urban Transportation Research (2009), US EPA

39. 40 metric tons of CO2 per bus annually
CO2 from Electric Buses Comes from Production of Electricity at Power Plants AQ
1.23 lbs of CO2 per kWh
40 metric tons of CO2 per bus annually
Source: Public Utilities Commission; EIA

40. CO2 Emissions Are Significantly Lower for Electric Buses
CO2 emissions are 75% lower for an electric bus! AQ
Total CO2 emissions from power plants in FL (2011): 115 m metric tons
Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission

41. Electrifying Transit Will Continually Reduce CO2 Emissions
At full conversion, 300k tons of CO2 can be saved
Update the numbers
Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission

42. Electrifying Could Reduce Externality Cost by as Much as $7M Annually
Use price to quantify the negative externality cost from CO2 emissions
American Power Act (2010) would have established a cap-and-trade program for GHG emissions
EIA estimates that externality price could range from $10 to $25/metric ton of CO2
Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission

43. Conclusion VC
Impact of Electrifying Florida’s Public Buses

44. Reduced Externalities
Methodology
Initial Investment
Cost
Comparison
Annual Expenditures
Impact
Analysis
Increased
Economic Activity AQ
Additional
Benefits
Reduced Externalities

45. Florida Would Benefit from Electrifying the Public Bus System
At full conversion:
Annual cost savings of $120M
Creation of up to 600 jobs
Reduced externality effect by $7M
It makes economic sense for Florida to adopt an electric bus system VC

46. Vesselka drops the mic and kisses baby in audience (Dougie)