1. Quarterly GDP at t+30 days for EU and euro area
WG 'European Statistical Data Support' Luxembourg, 21 April Hans Wouters - Eurostat
WG ESDS - 21/4/16

2. Content Background Why introduce GDP t+30 estimates?
Results GDP t+30 project
Quality criteria
Test estimations
Communication
WG ESDS - 21/4/16

3. 1. Background (1)
22-23 May 2013: Eurostat National Accounts Working Group decided to establish GDP t+30 TF
Purpose: assess feasibility of producing GDP flash estimates at t+30 days for EA and EU
Start of work June 2013, finalisation by end-2015
WG ESDS - 21/4/16

4. 1. Background (2)
Participation: BG, CZ, DE, FI, FR, HU, IT, LT, LV, NL, PL, PT, RO, SI, UK, CH, ECB (+ ESTAT and CE staff)
Organised and chaired by ESTAT
2 meetings per year
Support of a contractor – Cambridge Econometrics
WG ESDS - 21/4/16

5. 2. Why introduce GDP t+30 estimates?
Development in official statistics
User needs
Key users – European Commission, European Central Banks
Policy making
Monitoring economic situation
Forecasting
Other users
Logical next step after GDP t+45 estimates
Fits in release pattern Principal European Economic Indicators
Releases at 30 – 60 – 90 days
WG ESDS - 21/4/16

6. 3. Results GDP t+30 project (1)
Sharing country experiences and best practices with national GDP t+30 estimations
Development of guidance document on (national) methods and estimation techniques
Guidance for non-experienced Member States
Development of quality acceptance criteria
For assessment test results
WG ESDS - 21/4/16

7. 3. Results GDP t+30 project (2)
Preparation of test estimates
Development of estimation methodology for the EA/EU GDP t+30 estimates
Use in test and regular GDP t+30 estimates
Development of a communication plan
WG ESDS - 21/4/16

8. 4. Quality acceptance criteria (1)
Purpose
Assessment of test estimates
Quality criteria
Unbiased GDP t+30 estimate
Average revision between and ppt
Max 67% revision in the same direction
WG ESDS - 21/4/16

9. 4. Quality acceptance criteria (2)
Quality criteria (continued)
Limited average absolute revision
Max 0.10 ppt at t+45
Max 0.13 ppt at t+60
Sufficient coverage
70% GDP for 2015 test quarters
Availability communication plan
WG ESDS - 21/4/16

10. 5. Test estimations (1) Purpose
To assess expected quality of future GDP t+30 estimates
Test quarters
Real time estimations for 2014Q1-2015Q4
Retrospective estimations for 2012Q1-2013Q4
WG ESDS - 21/4/16

11. 5. Test estimations (2) Conclusions
Successfully passing all a priori quality criteria
Better than market forecasts at t+30 (tested for real-time quarters)
Smaller revisions than the published GDP t+30 for the US
But: revisions t+30  t+45 will be larger than revisions t+45  t+60
WG ESDS - 21/4/16

12. 6. Communication (1) Key messages
Introduction GDP t+30 on 29 April 2016, next publication dates: 29/7, 31/10
Name: preliminary GDP flash estimate
GDP t+45 estimates will remain
Trade-off between timeliness and accuracy
Country data will be kept confidential
Several background document will be made available
WG ESDS - 21/4/16

13. 6. Communication (2)
All details available for TF, NAWG and DMES during the whole project
Communication to main users about headlines after decision in December 2015
Centralised communication via Eurostat
WG ESDS - 21/4/16

14. 6. Communication (3)
Full information including background information available for all users at/after first release April '16
Methodogical working papers on:
Methods and techniques for national GDP t+30 estimations
Eurostat estimation procedure
Article in Eurona, other economic journals (?)
Presentations in meetings and conferences
F.e. IARIW in August 2016
Organisation webinar (?)
WG ESDS - 21/4/16

15. Quarterly GDP at t+30 days for EU and euro area
WG 'European Statistical Data Support' Luxembourg, 21 April Hans Wouters - Eurostat
WG ESDS - 21/4/16