1. PENGOLAHAN DAN PENYAJIAN
Oleh:
I Gusti Bagus Rai Utama, SE., MMA., MA.

2. Skala Pengukuran dan Alat Analisis
Mode
Median
Mean
Nominal
Yes No
Ordinal
Interval
Rasio

3. Purpose of Regression and Correlation Analysis
Regression Analysis is Used Primarily for Prediction
A statistical model used to predict the values of a dependent or response variable based on values of at least one independent or explanatory variable
Correlation Analysis is Used to Measure Strength of the Association Between Numerical Variables

4. The Scatter Diagram
Plot of all (Xi , Yi) pairs

5. Types of Regression Models
Positive Linear Relationship
Relationship NOT Linear
Negative Linear Relationship
No Relationship

6. Simple Linear Regression Model
Relationship Between Variables Is a Linear Function
The Straight Line that Best Fit the Data
Y intercept
Random Error
Dependent (Response) Variable
Independent (Explanatory) Variable
Slope

7. Population Linear Regression ModelY Y = b + b X + e
Observed Value i 1 i i e
= Random Error i m = b + b X 1 i YX X
Observed Value

8. Sample Linear Regression ModelÙ Ù Yi
= Predicted Value of Y for observation i Xi
= Value of X for observation i b0
= Sample Y - intercept used as estimate of the population b0 b1
= Sample Slope used as estimate of the population b1

9. Simple Linear Regression Equation: Example
Annual Store Square Sales Feet ($000)
, ,681
, ,395
, ,653
, ,543
, ,318
, ,563
, ,760
You wish to examine the relationship between the square footage of produce stores and its annual sales. Sample data for 7 stores were obtained. Find the equation of the straight line that fits the data best

10. Scatter Diagram Example
Excel Output

11. Equation for the Best Straight LineÙ
From Excel Printout:

12. Graph of the Best Straight Line
Yi = Xi Ù

13. Interpreting the ResultsÙ
Yi = Xi
The slope of means for each increase of one unit in X, the Y is estimated to increase 1.487units.
For each increase of 1 square foot in the size of the store, the model predicts that the expected annual sales are estimated to increase by $1487.

14. Measures of Variation: The Sum of Squares
SST = Total Sum of Squares
measures the variation of the Yi values around their mean Y _
SSR = Regression Sum of Squares
explained variation attributable to the relationship between X and Y
SSE = Error Sum of Squares
variation attributable to factors other than the relationship between X and Y

15. Measures of Variation: The Sum of SquaresY Ù
SSE =å(Yi - Yi )2 _ Ù
Yi = b0 + b1Xi
SST = å(Yi - Y)2 _ Ù
SSR = å(Yi - Y)2 _ Y X Xi

16. Measures of Variation The Sum of Squares: Example
Excel Output for Produce Stores
SSR
SSE
SST

17. The Coefficient of Determination
SSR regression sum of squares
r2 = =
SST total sum of squares
Measures the proportion of variation that is explained by the independent variable X in the regression model

18. Coefficients of Determination (r2) and Correlation (r)Y
r = +1
r2 = 1, Y
r = -1 ^ Y = b + b X i 1 i ^ Y = b + b X i 1 i X X
r2 = .8, Y
r = +0.9 Y
r2 = 0,
r = 0 ^ ^ Y = b + b X Y = b + b X i 1 i i 1 i X X

19. Standard Error of EstimateÙ =
The standard deviation of the variation of observations around the regression line

20. Measures of Variation: Example Excel Output for Produce Stores
Syx
r2 = .94
94% of the variation in annual sales can be explained by the variability in the size of the store as measured by square footage

21. Linear Regression Assumptions
For Linear Models
1. Normality
Y Values Are Normally Distributed For Each X
Probability Distribution of Error is Normal
2. Homoscedasticity (Constant Variance)
3. Independence of Errors

22. Variation of Errors Around the Regression Line
y values are normally distributed around the regression line.
For each x value, the “spread” or variance around the regression line is the same.
f(e) Y X2 X1 X
Regression Line

23. Residual Analysis Purposes Graphical Analysis of Residuals
Examine Linearity
Evaluate violations of assumptions
Graphical Analysis of Residuals
Plot residuals Vs. Xi values
Difference between actual Yi & predicted Yi
Studentized residuals:
Allows consideration for the magnitude of the residuals Ù

24. Residual Analysis for Linearityü
Not Linear
Linear e e X X

25. Residual Analysis for Homoscedasticityü
Heteroscedasticity
Homoscedasticity SR SR X X
Using Standardized Residuals

26. Residual Analysis: Computer Output Example
Produce Stores
Excel Output

27. The Durbin-Watson Statistic
Used when data is collected over time to detect autocorrelation (Residuals in one time period are related to residuals in another period)
Measures Violation of independence assumption
Should be close to 2.
If not, examine the model for autocorrelation.

28. Residual Analysis for Independenceü
Not Independent
Independent SR SR X X

29. Inferences about the Slope: t Test
t Test for a Population Slope Is a Linear Relationship Between X & Y ?
Null and Alternative Hypotheses
H0: b1 = 0 (No Linear Relationship) H1: b1 ¹ 0 (Linear Relationship)
Test Statistic:
Where
and df = n - 2

30. Example: Produce Stores
Data for 7 Stores:
Regression Model Obtained:
Annual Store Square Sales Feet ($000)
, ,681
, ,395
, ,653
, ,543
, ,318
, ,563
, ,760 Ù
Yi = Xi
The slope of this model is
Is there a linear relationship between the square footage of a store and its annual sales?

31. Inferences about the Slope: t Test Example
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
H0: b1 = 0
H1: b1 ¹ 0
a = .05
df = = 5
Critical Value(s):
From Excel Printout
Reject H0
Reject
Reject
.025
.025
There is evidence of a relationship. t
2.5706

32. Inferences about the Slope: Confidence Interval Example
Confidence Interval Estimate of the Slope
b1± tn-2
Excel Printout for Produce Stores
At 95% level of Confidence The confidence Interval for the slope is (1.062, 1.911). Does not include 0.
Conclusion: There is a significant linear relationship between annual sales and the size of the store.

33. Estimation of Predicted Values
Confidence Interval Estimate for mXY
The Mean of Y given a particular Xi
Size of interval vary according to distance away from mean, X.
Standard error of the estimate
t value from table with df=n-2

34. Estimation of Predicted Values
Confidence Interval Estimate for Individual Response Yi at a Particular Xi
Addition of this 1 increased width of interval from that for the mean Y

35. Interval Estimates for Different Values of X
Confidence Interval for the mean of Y
Confidence Interval for a individual Yi Y Ù
Yi = b0 + b1Xi _ X X
A Given X

36. Example: Produce Stores
Data for 7 Stores:
Annual Store Square Sales Feet ($000)
, ,681
, ,395
, ,653
, ,543
, ,318
, ,563
, ,760
Predict the annual sales for a store with 2000 square feet.
Regression Model Obtained: Ù
Yi = Xi

37. Estimation of Predicted Values: Example
Confidence Interval Estimate for Individual Y
Find the 95% confidence interval for the average annual sales for stores of 2,000 square feet Ù
Predicted Sales Yi = Xi = ($000)
tn-2 = t5 =
X =
SYX =
= ±
Confidence interval for mean Y

38. Estimation of Predicted Values: Example
Confidence Interval Estimate for mXY
Find the 95% confidence interval for annual sales of one particular stores of 2,000 square feet Ù
Predicted Sales Yi = Xi = ($000)
tn-2 = t5 =
X =
SYX =
= ±
Confidence interval for individual Y

39. Correlation: Measuring the Strength of Association
Answer ‘How Strong Is the Linear Relationship Between 2 Variables?’
Coefficient of Correlation Used
Population correlation coefficient denoted r (‘Rho’)
Values range from -1 to +1
Measures degree of association
Is the Square Root of the Coefficient of Determination

40. Test of Coefficient of Correlation
Tests If There Is a Linear Relationship Between 2 Numerical Variables
Same Conclusion as Testing Population Slope b1
Hypotheses
H0: r = 0 (No Correlation)
H1: r ¹ 0 (Correlation)