Combatant Design and Fleet Mix Assessment and Optimisation using BAEFASIP Dstl/CP103098 Chris Brett, Dstl, UK Dr Malcolm Courts, BAE Systems Maritime,

Combatant Design and Fleet Mix Assessment and Optimisation using BAEFASIP
Dstl/CP103098 Chris Brett, Dstl, UK Dr Malcolm Courts, BAE Systems Maritime, UK OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

2 Contents 1) Introduction 2) Functional Analysis and BAEFASIP 3) Combatant Trade Space Exploration and Optimisation 4) Fleet Mix Trade Space Exploration and Optimisation 5) Utilisation of Models in Decision Process 6) Conclusions OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

1.1) Introduction OFFICIAL
3 1.1) Introduction In order to make Cost Effectiveness trade off decisions as early as possible in the concept stages of a project The following activities are required: Concept synthesis:- to generate viable solutions quickly to the point that reasonable cost estimates can be made Operational analysis:- to assess the military value of the solutions Multi criteria decision analysis:- to make sense of the large amount of data generated by 1 and 2. OFFICIAL OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

Cost Effectiveness Trade Space
4 1.2) Introduction Cost Effectiveness Trade Space Budget limit Affordability gap Technology limit Ambition Capability gap Total Benefit (Military Effectiveness) Do nothing Current capability Total Cost (Through Life Cost) OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

Additional layers can be added as required
2.1) Functional Analysis and BAEFASIP Functional Analysis of System Implementation Parameters Equipments with properties for cost and effectiveness data Functions Equipment to function mapping with operators Primarily Customer Requirements based view Capabilities Operations Function to operation mapping with operators Mappings and appropriate operators created for each property Primarily Engineering Solution based view Additional layers can be added as required OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

6 2.2) Functional Analysis and BAEFASIP Functional Analysis of System Implementation Parameters Calculates Multiple Properties of system through model data tree layers and links Allows Variety of Relationships between properties of different data tree elements and layers, reflecting engineering dependency, redundancy etc. Generates New Properties from existing Allows Selection of Subsets of any data tree items for evaluation and sensitivity analyses Allows Choices of data items to be set up within data tree structures Allows Pareto Front Multi Variable Optimisation to optimise selection of choice options and selected model property and link values in complex trade spaces Allows Constraints to be imposed on solutions Allows Rules to be applied to choice combinations and property/link values, reflecting real world practicalities and engineering constraints Can find optimum solutions that are robust to Variations in property values Configurable by the user to deal with wide range of model structures OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

3.1) Combatant Trade Space Exploration and Optimisation
7 3.1) Combatant Trade Space Exploration and Optimisation Intended for assessment of alternative surface combatant platform and combat system unit combinations Multi layer model to provide discrimination and improve understanding of how capabilities are delivered by alternative system configurations Operations High level capabilities Functions Equipment (Platforms and Payloads) Systems assessed against multiple capability based operational requirements Platform and equipment selections can be optimised against specified criteria Engineering practicality of potential solutions assured by use of rules and property calculations controlling nos. of types of equipment selected and space etc. used on platform OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

Equipment dependencies, redundancies, etc. defined by data structures, linkages, effectiveness calculation operators and rules on choice selections Functions Capabilities Operations Equipment options Effectiveness Benefit Performance Costs Assess and compare defined solutions Generate optimum equipment/platform combinations OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

Functions Capabilities Operations Equipment options Effectiveness Effectiveness scores calculated for each Operation and overall Additional constraints defined e.g. Critical Capability scores may be defined for some Operations Certain types of Equipment may be considered critical for some Operations 4 dimension optimisation Total costs Minimise Total benefits Maximise No. of operations achievable Maximise Systems compatible (internal driver) Maximise OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

10 3.4) Combatant Trade Space Exploration and Optimisation Model Considers Alternative Equipment units inherent ability to perform Functions Alternative Equipment platform performance levels contribution to Functions Equipment unit demands on platform and platform capacities for demands Rules on which Equipment unit can be fitted to which Equipment platform Consideration of Equipment platform constraints when selecting multiple Equipment units Function contributions to Capabilities Critical levels of Function benefit scores required for particular Capabilities Capability contributions to Operations Critical levels of Capability benefit scores required for particular Operations Critical Equipment units required for particular Operations Costs of Equipment units and platforms OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

PARETO FRONT X, Y, Z DISPLAY OF OPTIMUM HULL AND EQUIPMENT COMBINATIONS COSTS & BENEFITS Different platform types with varied equipment fits No. Ops possible Benefit Total Cost OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

HEAT MAP DISPLAY OF ALL EQUIPMENT CHOICES PLOTTED AGAINST TOTAL COST Option No. Scroll over all Equipment options Total Cost Vertical lines are optimum system solutions OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

SYSTEM COMPOSITION DISPLAY OF ALL EQUIPMENT CHOICES PLOTTED AGAINST TOTAL COST No. of Operations Scroll over all Equipment options Zoomed to high capability solutions only Option No. Threads through options are optimum system solutions OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

4.1) Fleet Mix Trade Space Exploration and Optimisation
18 4.1) Fleet Mix Trade Space Exploration and Optimisation Intended for assessment of alternative fleet mixes of different ship types Fleets assessed against multiple operational requirements and concurrencies Multi layer model to provide discrimination and improve understanding of how capabilities delivered by alternative fleet mixes Concurrencies Operations Ship types Fleet mixes assessed and optimised against range of capabilities required for operations Operation and overall force structure coherency assured by use of rules and property calculations OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

Operation Capability requirements, criticalities, etc. defined by data structures, linkages, effectiveness calculation operators and rules on ship to operation allocation Capabilities Operations Concurrencies Ship options Effectiveness Numbers & Costs Benefit Assess and compare defined ship allocations Generate theoretical optimum ship allocations and resulting fleet mixes OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

Operations Concurrencies Ship options Costs Effectiveness Overall benefit scores calculated from capabilities for all Operations Total no. of Ships required for worse case concurrency identified Ships or Facilities required to support fleet identified Total costs calculated 5 dimension optimisation Total costs (NRE & UPC) Minimise Total benefits Maximise No. of concurrencies Maximise Total manning (TLC driver) Minimise Number of classes (TLC driver) Minimise OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

21 4.4) Fleet Mix Trade Space Exploration and Optimisation Model considers Ship inherent capabilities & capacity for deploying facilities e.g. USVs etc. Numbers of Ships with capabilities required by Operations Numbers of Ships with capabilities above critical level required by Operations Numbers of Ship deployed facilities required by Operations Critical total capability benefit scores for particular Operations Rules tying one type of Ship to others required within an Operation (i.e. support ship per no. of other ships etc.) Operations required by each Concurrency Critical Operation benefit scores for particular Concurrencies Relative importance of Concurrencies Force generation factors for different Ship types Manning and associated generation factors for each Ship type Costs, both Unit Production Cost (UPC) and Non-Recurring Expenditure (NRE) Limits of numbers of a Ship type across fleet (e.g. T45 and T26) Additional items required to support fleet depending on numbers of Ships required (e.g. dockyards, etc.) & their costs/manning OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

HEAT MAP DISPLAY OF NUMBERS OF EACH SHIP TYPE ALLOCATED TO EACH OPERATION No. of ships of type No. ships of type x allocated to Operation y Total Cost Vertical lines are optimum fleet mixes OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

SYSTEM COMPOSITION DISPLAY OF NUMBERS OF EACH SHIP TYPE ALLOCATED TO EACH OPERATION Benefit no. No. ships of type x allocated to Operation y No. of ships of type Threads through options are optimum fleet mixes OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

5.1) Utilisation of Models in Decision Process
Both models have been developed to support decision making for the Maritime domain. An earlier version of the Fleet Mix model was used to inform preparations for SDSR15 Combatant Assessment has been developed to direct the research programme in terms of future system development and platform design Fleet Mix Assessment has been developed to support the Royal Navy in terms of shaping their force mix assessments OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

Combatant Assessment Force Structure analysis identified real world operational functions and capabilities required from surface platforms Low level operational analysis provided equipment effectiveness against the various functions and capabilities Combatant assessment then provides an assessment of system requirements for platform designs, with a view to maximise benefit across different operations OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 05/12/2018 5.3) Utilisation of Models in Decision Process Combatant Assessment determines the ideal platform content for each operation Platform Design Operational activities from existing Force Structure analysis Equipment Effectiveness Force Structure analysis used to determine the operational requirement for the element of the force that is being assessed. In this case the Surface Ship flotilla Scenario assessments used to determine the functions and capabilities required in each operation Low level assessments used to determine effectiveness of equipment for each function and capability OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Fleet Mix Assessment Force Structure analysis identified real world operations and the concurrency demands Same operations as the Combatant Assessment Platform designs can be brought through from the Combatant Assessment process Multiple fleet mixes generated across the platform designs In 2015, fleet mixes were generated and passed back into the Force Structure analysis to help inform RN decisions prior to SDSR2015 OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

Fleet Mix assessment determines optimum fleet mixes across a broad range of platform types Operational demand from surface flotilla Platform design Fleet Mix OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed
05/12/2018 35 6.1) Conclusions Modelling of complex systems is possible using functional analysis combining the Top Down requirements based view with the Bottom Up constrained engineering synthesis view Properties can be used to model system parameters such as cost, measures of performance and measures of effectiveness together with appropriate calculation algorithms It is possible to establish demonstrable system optimum solutions in an extremely large, complex and discontinuous trade space using Genetic Algorithms modified to enforce rules on allowable option interactions OFFICIAL 05 December 2018 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Combatant Design and Fleet Mix Assessment and Optimisation using BAEFASIP Dstl/CP103098 Chris Brett, Dstl, UK Dr Malcolm Courts, BAE Systems Maritime,

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Combatant Design and Fleet Mix Assessment and Optimisation using BAEFASIP Dstl/CP103098 Chris Brett, Dstl, UK Dr Malcolm Courts, BAE Systems Maritime,

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Presentation on theme: "Combatant Design and Fleet Mix Assessment and Optimisation using BAEFASIP Dstl/CP103098 Chris Brett, Dstl, UK Dr Malcolm Courts, BAE Systems Maritime,"— Presentation transcript:

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