1. Complex World Event
8 April 2015
EUROPEAN COMMISSION

2. SESAR in a global environment
JOINT UNDERTAKING

3. Standardization ICAO ICAO EUROCAE RTCA ISO OGC SESAR / EUROPE NextGen
ANC
ICAO
ICAO
ICAO WORKING GROUPS
EUROCAE RTCA
ISO
OGC
SESAR /
EUROPE
NextGen
CPs

4. TBO Trajectory Based Operations (TBO)
“Coordinate changes/constraints on a trajectory worldwide”
TBO
Trajectory Synchronization
Constraint management
&
Constraint adherence
Multi Actor
Framework
Balancing predictability versus flexibility

5. Trajectory Based Operations
As traffic increases
More and more flights
Are subject to multiple limiting factors
That may originate from various ATM components
Time (to fly) to predicted trajectory part
Arrival Management
Separation provision
Collision avoidance
Trajectory prediction
constraints
Inauguration Ceremony

6. The layered planning approach
Flows instead of trajectories
Dynamic DCB
Enhanced FUA
Milestone planning
Complexity
Management
Time uncertainty some minutes
Required granulaity and reliability of the
Trajectory Prediction for ATM function
Tactical Planning
Accurate
Executive Control
Safety
Nets
Required time-horizon
of trajectory prediction
1 sec
2 mins
1 day
10 secs
16 mins
3 hours
Predictability required from ATM function perspective
Flexibility required from AU perspective

7. [per operational stakeholder]
Involves many actors
Data visualization
4D trajectories
Uncertainty
Combine with MET, AIM, Flow
What IF scenario’s
Global actors
leading
Flight crew
Flight operations centre
Regional actors
contributing
Air traffic control
[per operational stakeholder]
Level of involvement
Local traffic manager & tactical planning
Network manager
none
1 sec
2 mins
1 day
Time-horizon of
the intended trajectory
10 secs
16 mins
3 hours

8. Impact on trajectory changes
How to deal with residual uncertainty?
Can Agent Based Modeling be used to support CDM?
small
medium
big
huge
Weather (2.2)
Turn around processes (2.3)
Variations in cockpit procedures (2.4)
Navigational inaccuracy (2.5)
Impact on trajectory changes
[probability x magnitude]
ATM intervention (2.6)
1 sec
2 mins
Time-horizon between uncertainty cause and actual impact on flight
10 secs
16 mins
3 hours
Take-off

9. Making a plan, managing changes
Glue between these ATM components
synchronizing the view of the trajectory
between different actors
ensuring consistency between constraints
that originate from the various ATM components
Stability and consistency
of the combination of the solutions
efficiently converging coordination process
to find this stable and consistent combination
Resilience management
Inauguration Ceremony

10. How to access confidential information?
Integrating the airline perspective
How to access confidential information?
Airline network
ATM network
Optimization theory
Need for an independent view
What are the interdependencies?
What is optimal in the sum of the networks?
How to find/agree the optimum?
How to implement it?

11. How far can we push the conflict horizon?
When unpredictability grows to the order of magnitude of the applicable separation criteria there is no point in further de-conflicting individual trajectories.
Manage
Uncertainty
conflict horizon
ATC clearance
Time (to fly) to predicted trajectory part
Trajectory prediction =
Coordinated trajectory intention

12. Hypothesis
Continuous corrections of the multi-aircraft system in its entirety are required to keep the system stable and safe.
This does not by definition lead to a conflict between predictability and flexibility.
For most purposes the only relevant element of predictability is milestone planning with tolerance levels tailored to a specific ATM function.
Changes are within Tolerance
Change can be compensated by AC
Need to re-plan trajectories
Constraint 2
(for separation or planning purposes)
Aircraft intent
EPP
Constraint 1
(for separation or planning purposes)
Alternative trajectories that would have complied with constraints

13. Optimize interval ensuring fluctuations to average out
Milestone planning
Congested runway
Departure time
Though the final RTA window does not match the originally planned trajectory, it does serve its purpose for arrival management
Arrival time
Time
Initial RTA tolerance
Destination
Optimize interval ensuring fluctuations to average out
Compliant
trajectories
Congested sector
Final fine-tuned
RTA tolerance
Planned
trajectory
Flight distance
Optimise moment to fine tune target time at Fix: Not too early, not too late
Origin

14. High level guidance
Need a mechanism that ensure consistency between constraints
Promote increased predictability whilst retaining a level of flexibility that allows operators to fly as closely as possible to their business need.
The tolerance range of any constraint should be commensurate with the ATM function it serves
The timing for setting a constraint should be delayed as late as possible commensurate with the ATM function it serves.

15. Example: Trajectory prediction
Data Science
Who needs what
For what purpose
With what accuracy
What update rate?
Inauguration Ceremony

16. Example: Trajectory prediction
Data Science
Who needs what
For what purpose
With what accuracy
What update rate?
Inauguration Ceremony

17. TRAJECTORY COORDINATOR
TBO needs SWIM, SWIM needs trust
YEARS
6 MONTHS
DAYS
HOURS
MINUTES
ATM PLANNING PHASES
LONG TERM
MID TERM
EXECUTION
TRAJECTORY STATUS
PRE-NEGOTIATION
NEGOTIATION
AGREED INTENT
FINE TUNING
TRAJECTORY COORDINATOR
AIRSPACE USER
NETWORK MANAGEMENT
ATC
Easy access to information
Multiple ATM stakeholders
Offer and consume ATM information from each other
Easy to connect
Provider and consumers build on Trust
All involved parties can be trusted (authorized entities only)
Exchange mechanism can be trusted (secured, reliable, on-time)
No abuse of information (adequate access control)
Cost reduction in ATM evolution
Cost proportional to required performance level
Future changes shall be faster and cheaper
New security mechanisms

18. Resilience Engineering
Security Framework
More information exchanges between stakeholders
Despite protective cyber security measure
Need to be resilient against an attack
How to design a system of systems that is resilient against a cyber attack?
This requires design principles for resilience engineering
Resilience Engineering

19. Exploratory research >> IR
Deployment Phase
SESAR I
Industrial Research
SESAR 2020
Exploratory Research
Definition phase
Create European ATM Master Plan
SESAR I
Exploratory Research
SESAR 2020
Industrial Research

20. For more information on TBO see: