1. The Theory of Change
Carwyn Gravell, Julie Muir, Andy Logan, Andy Williams, Ian Barnett
9th May 2018

2. Forward today 410 employees – 34% with lived experience
Working in 18 prisons and 10 community hubs
16,000 service users across England
“I completed the programme in 2008 at HMP Send and was released in Since then, I’ve opened my own business and become a mother. Forward has given me more opportunities than I ever could have imagines and they are still here for me, still supporting me”. Former Forward client

3. Our Theory of Change Enablers
Belief in change - For anyone, whatever their past
Peer role models - Living proof that change is possible
Clear progression pathways - Incremental steps towards lasting change
Networks of support - Providing positive encouragement and affirmation

4. Drug & alcohol recovery
The problem
“I never thought it would be possible to change my ways of crime and addiction. But I now live free from drugs, alcohol and crime in a beautiful flat, with a full time job and a girlfriend. I feel so positive about my future”. Former Forward client
Reoffending costs the public £15 billion each year
55% of prisoners have committed crimes related to drug use
76% of ex-offenders with addiction problems re-offend within 1 year
Our reach & impact
65% reduction in the volume of crime
15,000 clients seen every year
18% lower re-offending rate

5. Health & wellbeing The problem Our reach & impact
“Because of the meditation and things I’ve learnt, like the breathing technique, helps in managing the negative thoughts and feelings”. Former Forward client
71% of prison clients present with mental health symptoms
Substance dependent offenders with depression are 9% more likely to re-offend
A prisoner commits suicide every 3 days
Our reach & impact
50%
reduction in severity of symptoms of depression
25%
reduction in severity of symptoms of anxiety
Range of new interventions delivered in prison including IAPT

6. Connections The problem Our reach & impact
“I can’t believe how much the family service has helped me. It’s given me the tools I need to stay strong, as well as to support my husband in his recovery”. Former Forward client
40% of prisoners say support from family would stop re-offending
Only 1 in 3 prisoners are supported to maintain family ties
88,000 children have a parent in prison.
Our reach & impact
Prisoners who receive family visits are 39% less likely to re-offend
We now support over 3,000 clients to improve their relationships

7. Employment services The problem Our achievements
“Being at Blue Sky helped my become more confident and made it easier to integrate back into society and support my growing family.” Former Forward client
Ex offenders and people in recovery are the two groups organisations are least likely to employ
15% of prisoners have never worked legally
75% of prisoners have no job on release
Our achievements
2,000 ex-offenders and people in recovery employed
43% move directly into permanent jobs
23% reduction in re-offending

8. Our achievements 2,000 ex-offenders and people in recovery employed
43% move directly into permanent jobs
23% reduction in re-offending

9. Our Theory of Change

10. Our Theory of Change

11. The Theory of Change
Expert Panel