1. The role of VET in reducing early leaving from education and training
Barcelona, 13 May 2016
Irene Psifidou
Expert

2. So far, European statistics have only allowed for a quantification of the overall phenomenon:
The EU average rate of early leavers from education and training in 2014 was 11.1%, translated into 4.4 million young people who have left education and training before completing upper secondary education.
What type of education/training programme have they left? Why? How many of them return to education? How many chose vocational education and training as a second chance option? And how many graduate eventually?
So far, we are not in a position to fully answer to these questions.
Also we do not know whether is George or Mary who are early leavers. And why is important to know so? Certainly not for gossiping, but knowing students' trajectories allows to intervene timely and effectively.

3. Cedefop Research approach
Understanding the problem
Looking at solutions that work
Re-constructing the ‘theory’
Reviewing Evaluations
What is supporting transfer
Who are ELET and where do they come from?
Factors leading to ELET
What are the characteristics of measures that have proved to be effective?
Linking the factors and measures’ characteristics (why does it work?)
Are the right things being measured to understand whether a policy is effective?
How is learning from evidence and evidence-based practice supported?

4. Methodology Factors associated with early leaving
Phase I
Factors associated with early leaving
Phase II
Policies and measures to tackle early leaving
755 interviews
National-level interviews (ministry, research centres, statistical offices, PES, chambers…); and
On-site interviews (school heads, teachers, learners, local authorities…)
In Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal and UK
44 measures selected for in-depth analysis
Quantitative analysis: Adult Education Survey (AES); Programme for International Assessment of Adult Competences (PIAAC); national data (FR, NL).

5. What did we find? Experiencing dropout ≠ early leaving:
58% of ELET are ‘non-starters’ – 42% have experienced a drop-out event
1/3 of people with drop-out experience achieve upper-secondary qualification
Most of them achieve VET qualifications
Still, the majority of those who drop out at one point remain early leavers
What we managed to find out from the secondary analysis of the available international data (Eurostat’s labour force and adult education surveys and OECD’s PIAAC) is that:
Experiencing dropout is not identical to early leaving from education and training:
58% of early leavers are actually non starters, they have never made the transition to the next level of education
and 42% are drop outs: started a programme and discontinued it or failed the final examination.
Over a third of young people who started a programme but did not complete it, did achieve an upper-secondary qualification. And what it is important to note is that most of them achieve VET qualifications.
However early leaving is a persistent problem as the majority of those who drop out (2/3) at one point remain early leavers…
Icons: Freepik

6. VET: part of the problem
Often higher rates of early leaving in VET than in general education
Rates differ between types of VET (school-based vs. work-based), sectors and professions
Most frequently in policy discourse, VET appears as part of the problem, as contributing to raising the rates of early leaving. This was a generalisation made on the basis of some data from some countries. The project confirms this as from the analysis, VET does appear to result in higher share of ELET than general education, e.g. in AT, BE, DK, NL, FR.
However, there are also important exceptions where some VET pathways have a particularly low share of ELET (AT – VET colleges, which offer higher level of VET).
Within countries, there are differences in ELET rates between types of VET programmes, sectors and professions.
Often Work-based learning tracks present lower rates of ELET than school based tracks BUT NOT ALWAYS: In FR, NL and BE-Flemish higher rates of EL in apprenticeships rather than school-based tracks.
In Austria, within the apprenticeship track, the so called ‘supra-company apprenticeships’ face significantly higher level of early leaving than regular apprenticeships (32.1% of those enrolled end up as early leavers)
 Different rates between and within countries are associated with several factors which intervene and lead a person to abandon VET. There is an extensive literature on the individual reasons and the profiles of early leavers, but very little on the specificities of VET and the labour market which may explain higher rates of early leaving in VET
From the interviews conducted within this project, the most frequently mentioned VET related factors were linked to young person’s orientation towards a VET programme. A wrong orientation maybe either a choice that does not that much associated mismatching their abilities with the VET programme, but rather as a negative choice, impeded by the parents for example.
The second most important factor is their previous experience of education – in particular low academic performance, having experienced failure in the past, but also gaps in the area of basic skills which make pursuit of education at upper-secondary level more difficult.
As for labour market specific factors, the most frequently cited factor was the insufficient availability of apprenticeship placements. Young people who are interested in pursuing VET but do not secure an apprenticeship are more likely to be oriented towards a type of VET which does not correspond to their aspirations. Furthermore, in some systems the inability to find an apprenticeship means that they cannot pursue the training any further. Apprenticeships also have limitations in supporting integration and inclusion (e.g. migrants are underrepresented in apprenticeships).
Contrary to what is believed so far, Cedefop analysis shows that:
-Early tracking is not associated with EL despite the negative effects explored by several previous studies (in some cases early tracking such us in Germany prevents EL)
-Differentiation-number of VET programmes available does not affect the rate of EL, it is the flexibility of the VET systems rather than the range of offerings that is in fact related to tackling EL
-Employment outcomes of VET graduates, as well as labour market regulation and EL rates found to have low significance to show influence.

7. VET is part and parcel of the solution
VET helps prevent EL
The majority of those at risk of EL who shift to VET  graduate
High participation in VET  low drop out rates
High incidence of apprenticeships  lower rates of early leaving
The majority of drop outs qualify through VET
While the project helped to better understand why VET suffers from higher rates of early leaving, it also brought new evidence on its positive role.
VET proved to have both a preventive and remedial role to the problem:
VET can act as a safety net for those who start in general education and switch to VET programmes, the overwhelming majority gain their upper secondary qualification. (BE-Fr, FR, NL)
High participation in vocational education and training are associated with low numbers of early leavers: eight out of the ten EU Member States with high enrolment rates in VET ( more than 65%) have low early leaving rates (below the EU target). LU, SI, CZ, NL, SK, HR, FI, AT, BE. The exception is Romania.
Apprenticeships may have a positive effect on reducing early leaving: countries with a high incidence of apprenticeships tend to have lower numbers of early leavers (DK, DE, CH, AT). However, this depends on: availability of placements; readiness to work and relationships in the workplace.
VET’s remedial role is linked to its potential to reengage early leavers back into education and training and keep them until they qualify (evidence from PIAAC, and microdata in FR and the NL). 
VET can remedy EL

8. What role for policy?

9. What works…and what not?
Systematic and conclusive evaluations of VET policies
Conditions for policy learning and mainstreaming
Emphasise the positive role of VET
VET in national strategies addressing ELET
VET in EU policy initiatives and thematic working groups
Out of more than 300 VET policies mapped across Europe only 44 have collected some evidence on success.
None could show the ultimate effect of the policy on retention and qualification attainment. Very few successful local practices are mainstreamed at national level
There is a need to promote an evaluation culture to informing policies, putting in place funding arrangements, and helping build the necessary capacities.
The report identifies the existing gaps in policy impact evaluations and proposes a framework for policy evaluation that could be linked to ESF allocations. It also discusses the conditions that need to be in place for mainstreaming successful projects.
Few countries only have comprehensive strategies to address EL (AT, BE-FL, NL) ,and some are now being developed. Whereas there is a significant number of measures that indicate that VET is indeed playing a role in the early leaving arena across EU countries, its integration into national strategies is not always the case.

10. Data, data and…more data!
Improve the EU indicator to measure:
Orientation of the ISCED 3 qualification attained
Experience of dropping out
Level and orientation of programme
Current status
Improve national data infrastructure:
Strengthen coherence and quality of different databases and sub systems
Targeted policy making
Feedback to local authorities
Simple indicators to understand, interpret and use
‘Real time’ information for timely action
There is a need to improve the EU indicator measuring early leaving from education and training. The questions asked in the labour force survey need to be adjusted to enable more detailed analysis and nuanced understanding of the origin of early leavers is necessary in order to support decision-making.
Highest level of qualification attained (by ISCED levels) – as currently measured in the LFS
Orientation of the ISCED 3 qualification attained (general or vocational)
This would clarify the role of VET in retaining young people at risk of ELET in education and training.
Experience of dropping out, level and orientation of programme from which the person dropped out.
Current status – not attending any formal education and training.
At national level: There is a need for a stronger policy focus on developing comprehensive national data collection and monitoring systems on early leaving from education and training and address the existing limitations in the EU countries to be able to monitor early leaving from VET at national level.

11. VET empowers people to say… YES to education!
Despite the remaining issues that need to be addressed, there are many good practices and enough evidence to conclude that YES: VET may empower people to remain or re-engage to education and training.
What is important to remember is that early leavers or people at risk of early leaving have a face and a voice, faces and voices are not the same, they should be identified on time and attended carefully and individually.