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Chapter 10 International

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1 Chapter 10 International
Monetary System

2 International Business 4e
Chapter Preview List the benefits of stable and predictable exchange rates Discuss the law-of-one-price principle Describe purchasing power parity and the factors that affect exchange rates Explain how the gold standard functioned Discuss the experience with Bretton Woods Describe today’s international monetary system © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

3 Currency Values and Business
Exchange rates affect activities of both domestic and international firms Devaluation Revaluation export prices lowers raises import prices lowers raises © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

4 Major World Currencies
© Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

5 Strong Currency: Curse or Cure?
Export strategies in the face of a strong currency Get lean by shaving production costs Reward customers for paying a higher price Diversify into more currency-proof sectors Follow global demand to maintain sales Freezing prices can generate new sales © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

6 Stability and Predictability
Stable exchange rates Predictable exchange rates Improve accuracy of financial planning Reduce surprises of unexpected rate changes © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

7 International Business 4e
Value of U.S. Dollar © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

8 Law of One Price Identical item must have
an identical price in all countries when expressed in a common currency Big MacCurrencies Undervalued or overvalued Limited use in business decisions Fairly good rate predictor © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

9 International Business 4e
Big Mac Index © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

10 Purchasing Power Parity
Relative ability of two nations’ currencies to buy the same “basket” of goods in those two nations Considers price levels in adjusting relative currency values Purchasing power of a currency is eroded by inflation © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

11 Inflation: Key Factors
Monetary policy directly affects interest rates and money supply Fiscal policy indirectly affects taxes and spending High employment raises wages, which are embodied in consumer prices High rates lower borrowing and spending, which lowers inflation Exchange rates adjust to maintain PPP Money supply Employment Interest rates Adjustment © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

12 International Business 4e
Interest Rates Fisher Effect Nominal Interest Rate = Real Interest Rate + Inflation Rate International Fisher Effect Difference in nominal interest rates supported by two nations’ currencies will cause an equal but opposite change in their spot exchange rates © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

13 International Business 4e
Evaluating PPP Added costs Trade barriers Business confidence, psychology © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

14 Forecasting Exchange Rates
Efficient (inefficient) market views Prices reflect (don’t reflect) all public information Forecasting techniques Fundamental analysis Technical analysis © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

15 Gold Standard International monetary system that linked
nations’ currencies to specific values of gold Restricted monetary policies Reduced exchange-rate risk Corrected trade imbalances Ended by “competitive devaluation” In place from 1700s to 1939 © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

16 Bretton Woods Agreement
International monetary system based on value of U.S. dollar (1944 to 1973) Built-in flexibility Fixed exchange rates World Bank and IMF Ended by weak U.S. dollar © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

17 Jamaica Agreement Formalized the system of floating exchange rates
as the new international monetary system (1976) Managed float system Currencies float with government intervention Free float system Currencies float without government intervention © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

18 European monetary system
The System Today Managed float system Pegged exchange rates Currency board European monetary system © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

19 Recent Financial Crises
Developing nations’ debt crisis Mexico Southeast Asia Russia Argentina © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e

20 International Business 4e
Chapter Review List the benefits of stable and predictable exchange rates Discuss the law-of-one-price principle Describe purchasing power parity and the factors that affect exchange rates Explain how the gold standard functioned Discuss the experience with Bretton Woods Describe today’s international monetary system © Prentice Hall, 2008 International Business 4e


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