1. Confidence and Causality
Niels van Miltenburg

2. Presentation Outline

3. Presentation Outline
Introduce von Wright’s ideas with the help of an example of an experiment

4. Presentation Outline
Introduce von Wright’s ideas with the help of an example of an experiment
Distinguish between von Wright’s “strong” and “weak” positions

5. Presentation Outline
Introduce von Wright’s ideas with the help of an example of an experiment
Distinguish between von Wright’s “strong” and “weak” positions
Argue that the “weak” position is the most interesting position

6. Magnifying Glass Example

7. Magnifying Glass Example
Does the intervention need to be a human action?

8. Magnifying Glass Example
Does the intervention need to be a human action?
Von Wright: “Yes”

9. Magnifying Glass Example
Does the intervention need to be a human action?
Von Wright: “Yes”
What makes action so special?

10. Magnifying Glass Example
Does the intervention need to be a human action?
Von Wright: “Yes”
What makes action so special?
Von Wright: There is a conceptual connection between the concepts of causation and action

11. Counterfactual Element in Action

12. Counterfactual Element in Action
Certain changes in nature would not have occurred had we not produced them

13. Counterfactual Element in Action
Certain changes in nature would not have occurred had we not produced them
We can only act because we are confident that the world remains fairly stable

14. Strong vs Weak

15. Strong vs Weak
Strong: ‘p causes q’ means that we could produce q by bringing about p

16. Strong vs Weak
Strong: ‘p causes q’ means that we could produce q by bringing about p
Weak: We distinguish between causal relations and accidental regularities by using the notion of action, which is conceptually connected with the notion of causation

17. “Causalaria”

18. “Causalaria”

19. “Causalaria”

20. “Causalaria”

21. “Causalaria” A B

22. Hume
Given the fact that we can only observe regularly succeeding events, why do we see them as causally linked?

23. Confidence and Knowledge

24. Confidence and Knowledge
Confidence is intrinsic to our actions and constitutes our ability to act

25. Confidence and Knowledge
Confidence is intrinsic to our actions and constitutes our ability to act
Analogy with Anscombe’s ‘knowledge without observation’

26. Thanks for Listening