1. LDC graduation and development goals
Rolf Traeger
Chief, LDC Section
UNCTAD
Assessing the progress of LDCs towards SDGs
Short courses for Permanent Missions in Geneva
13 April 2018

2. This presentation
Graduation as a development goal
History and prospects of graduation
Impact of graduation on LDC-specific development goals

3. 1. Graduation as a development goal
IPoA (2011) For the 1st time, graduation as a development goals para.28: “aim of enabling half the number of least developed countries to meet the criteria for graduation by 2020”

4. 1. Graduation as a development goal
Graduation Issue discussed in: What has been the track record of graduation?

5. The history of graduation
2. History and prospects of graduation
The history of graduation
1970s
1980s
1990s ⇨ Botswana (1994)
2000s ⇨ Cabo Verde (2007)
2010s ⇨ Maldives (Maldives), Samoa
(2014), Equatorial Guinea (2017)

6. Prospects of graduation
2. History and prospects of graduation
Prospects of graduation
2021 – 2024 ⇨ Angola (2021)
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Kiribati
Lao PDR
Myanmar
Nepal
S Tome & Principe
Solomon Islands
Timor Leste
Tuvalu
11 countries !

7. 2. History and prospects of graduation
Consequences of these graduation cases Medium term ⇨ IPoA graduation target unlikely to be met Long term ⇨ Composition and characteristics of LDC group will change ⇨ What are the consequences of this?

8. Consequences of these graduation cases
2. History and prospects of graduation
Consequences of these graduation cases
The LDC group will shrink…
No. of LDCs: 47 ➘ ( 23%)
…but will still host significant population…
Population: 1,025 million in 2018
883 million in ( to 11 % world)

9. Consequences of these graduation cases … and become poorer
2. History and prospects of graduation
Consequences of these graduation cases … and become poorer
 46%
 26%

10. 3. Impact of graduation on LDC-specific development goals
Does the changing composition of the LDC group have an impact on (other) development goals?

11. 3. Impact of graduation on LDC-specific development goals
“Individual” targets
SDG 8.1 – at least 7% p.a. growth
SDG 9.2 – double industry share in GDP
 No impact of graduation on remaining LDCs

12. 3. Impact of graduation on LDC-specific development goals
“Collective” targets
SDG – double LDCs’ share of global exports by 2020
LDC-49’s share: 1.05% (2011)  target: 2.1%
But since then 2 countries have graduated

13. 3. Impact of graduation on LDC-specific development goals
“Collective” targets
Options
Keep as goal doubling the share of the smaller group
LDC-47’s share: 0.97% (2011)  target: 1.94%
Target unlikely to be met by 2020 ⇨ Establish new date
LDC-36’s share: 0.47% (2011)  target: 0.94%

14. 3. Impact of graduation on LDC-specific development goals
“ Collective ” targets
SDG 17.2 – “Developed countries to implement fully their official development assistance commitments, including the commitment by many developed countries to achieve the target of 0.7 per cent of gross national income for official development assistance (ODA/GNI) to developing countries and 0.15 to 0.20 per cent of ODA/GNI to least developed countries; ODA providers are encouraged to consider setting a target to provide at least 0.20 per cent of ODA/GNI to least developed countries”

15. 3. Impact of graduation on LDC-specific development goals
“Collective” targets
Target not met so far, except for 5 countries (2017)
BUT remaining LDCs are even more in need of ODA than graduated countries
Options
Keep same quantitative targets independently of changing composition of LDC group
Focus on higher target (20% of donor GNI)
Raise ODA target to LDCs to half of total ODA

16. Thank you