1. Age based demographics of US Physicians
Peter A. Boal, B.S.
Associate Director
UC San Diego PACE Program

2. AMA Physician Masterfile Data
Includes current and historical data for physicians in the US about:
specialties, sex, age, board cert status, state and country of practice, and major professional activity
1/3 of all physicians surveyed each year
Major professional activity (MPA) classifications:
Patient Care
Office Based Practice Hospital-Based Practice
Other Professional Activity (Nonpatient Care)
Administration Research
Teaching Other Activities

3. AMA Physician Masterfile Data
Physicians who are retired, semi-retired, working part-time (less than 20 hours per week), temporarily not in practice are classified as Inactive
Limitations of MPA data
self-designated
Lag time for updating as long as 4 years
Only survey 1/3 of all docs every 3 yrs

4. 2011 Major Professional Activity Data
MPA N
Mean Age
Percent
Administration
14,585
63.2
1.37
Hospital-Based Practice*
86,738
53.7
8.17
Residents (all years)
110,783
32.2
10.44
Inactive
131,071
76.9
12.35
Locum Tenens
1364
58.6
0.13
Medical Teaching
10,518
59.7
0.99
Not Classified
75,290
39.7
7.1
Office-Based Practice*
611,693
52.3
57.65
Other
4,806
61.0
0.45
Research
14,1176
60.8
1.34
*Active Practice

5. Masterfile Data Past &Present
1985
Number in active practice = 476,683
Mean age = not known
% 65 or older = 9.4 (n = 44,808)
2005
Number in active practice = 672,531
Mean age = 50.0 (SD = 11.4)
% 65 or older = 11.7 (n=78,340)
2011
Number in active practice = 697,340
Mean age = 52.5 (SD = 11.4)
% 65 or older = (n=105,464)

6. Age Distribution of Active Physicians from 1985 – 2011 (AMA Masterfile Data)
1985
2005
2011
Age Group*
Number
Percent
<35
127,193
26.8
45,262
6.7
22,974
3.3
35-44
142,889
29.8
192,469
28.7
170,215
24.4
45-54
92,108
19.1
214,453
31.9
210,610
30.2
55-64
71,110
14.8
141,131 21
188,077
27.0
65+
43,383
9.4
78,340
11.6
105,464
15.1
TOTALS
476,683
100
671,655
697,340
*Missing age data: n=876 (2005), n=1091 (2011)
No D.O. data included in this group. Estimated number of active
D.O.s in 1984 = 11,514

8. Differences in Opinion
AMA Physician Masterfile estimates of active physicians differs from US Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS)
CPS data estimates more young physicians entering the workforce and fewer older physicians remaining active
Staiger et al, JAMA. 2009;302(15):

9. Figure 1. Trends in CPS and Masterfile Data Estimates of the Number of Active Physicians Between 1979 and 2008, in Total and by 10-Year Age Groups.
CPS indicates US Census Bureau Current Population Survey; Masterfile, American Medical Association Physician Masterfile. Each data point represents the number of physicians who were active (working ≥20 hours per week) in a given year, based on data from the Masterfile and CPS. The Masterfile data are based on a census and have no sampling errors. Standard errors on the CPS data estimates for a single year are 4% to 5% for all ages, 13% to 24% for ages ≥65 years, and 8% to 13% for all other age categories. Active physicians includes both medical and osteopathic physicians.
Staiger, D. O. et al. JAMA 2009;302:
Copyright restrictions may apply.

10. Differences in Estimates Continued
Projected of number of active physicians in 2020 varies significantly between CPS and AMA Masterfile
CPS estimates 957,000 active physicians
65+ = 86,130 (9%)
55+ = 277,530 (29%)
AMA = 1,050,000
65+ = 189,000 (18%)
55+ = 409,500 (39%)

11. Figure 3. Percentage of Active Physicians in Various Age Groups Based on 2020 Projections Derived From the CPS and Masterfile Data
CPS indicates US Census Bureau Current Population Survey; Masterfile, American Medical Association Physician Masterfile.
Staiger, D. O. et al. JAMA 2009;302:
Copyright restrictions may apply.

12. Americans are Aging Too
In 2010, 13% of Americans were 65+
In 2020, 16.1% of Americans will be 65+
Current life expectancy at birth = 78.1

13. Bottom Line
Physician population aged significantly over the past 25 years
Estimates of physician aging over the next decade vary significantly
More data is needed to make accurate predictions of the future number of physicians in practice
Americans are aging and the number of people over 65 will continue to grow significantly over the next 10 years