1. Peabody Research Institute Vanderbilt University
The Moderating Effect of Neighborhood Disadvantage on Preschool Effectiveness: Evidence from Tennessee
F. Alvin Pearman, II
Peabody Research Institute
Vanderbilt University
March 2, 2017
SREE 2017 Annual Meeting

2. Motivation
The experimental evidence for the long-term positive effects of preschool exposure comes from a small set of interventions implemented in confined geographical areas.
States looking to expand access to prekindergarten for large segments of their child population will need to accommodate children living in varying types of neighborhoods
Little is known about whether children’s residential environments matter for how children engage and respond to preschool interventions.

3. Why might neighborhoods matter for Pre-K effects?
What is the counterfactual condition?
Neighborhood environments vary in terms of…
Opportunity structures (Aber, Morris, & Raver 2012)
Stress inducements (Hostinar & Gunner 2013; Schaefer-McDaniel, & Ramsey 2010)
Information networks (Aber, Morris, & Raver 2012)
Behavioral patterns (Van Ewijk & Sleegers 2010)
Environmental contaminants (Zhang et al. 2013)
Opportunity structure: lower quality schools as well as fewer health care clinics and fewer libraries
Exposure to violence, housing instability, unemployment, and weakened family units (Hostinar & Gunner 2013; Brooks-Gunn, Johnson, & Leventhal 2010; Dunn, Schaefer-McDaniel, & Ramsey 2010)

4. Neighborhood Disadvantage (see Sampson, Sharkey, & Raudenbush & 2008; Wodtke 2016)
Principal component derived from 6 neighborhood characteristics:
Poverty
Unemployment
Welfare receipt
Female-headed households
Education (percent of residents age 25 or older without a high school diploma),
Occupational structure (percent of residents age 25 or older in managerial or professional occupations)
Subsequent analyses divide neighborhood disadvantage into quintiles based on the TN distribution of the composite disadvantage index. All variables gathered from ACS.

8. SAME GRAPH ISSUES

9. Research Question
Do the effects of attending Pre-K on children’s 3rd grade achievement vary by the amount of disadvantage in children’s home neighborhood at baseline?

10. Sample Full TNVPK Sample
84% of full sample provided valid street addresses at baseline that could be geocoded (n = 2521).
362 children missing valid TCAP scores in 3rd Grade.
Final analytic sample: 2,159.

11. Analytic Method: 2-Stage Least Squares
First stage(s): Regress treatment-on-treated indicator (TOT) and the interaction between TOT and neighborhood disadvantage (ND), respectively, on intent-to-treat indicator (ITT) and an interaction between ITT and ND.
Second stage: Predicted values from the first-stage equation(s) are then used in place of the original endogenous measures of TOT and TOT/ND interaction in the second stage equation to predict children’s 3rd grade achievement.
The IV estimates mitigate bias and produce consistent estimates of whether the effects of attending Pre-K on children’s 3rd grade achievement vary by neighborhood disadvantage.

12. Analytic Method: 2-Stage Least Squares
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑎: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑏: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 2: 𝑦 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 × 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝐾 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 4 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖

13. Analytic Method: 2-Stage Least Squares
First stage equations.
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑎: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑏: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 2: 𝑦 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 × 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝐾 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 4 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖

14. Analytic Method: 2-Stage Least Squares
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑎: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑏: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 2: 𝑦 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 × 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝐾 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 4 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖
Second stage equation.

15. Analytic Method: 2-Stage Least Squares
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑎: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑏: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 2: 𝑦 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 × 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝐾 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 4 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖
Child i’s 3rd grade math or reading score, respectively, standardized to have a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1.

16. Analytic Method: 2-Stage Least Squares
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑎: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑏: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 2: 𝑦 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 × 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝐾 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 4 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖
The effect of attending Pre-K on children’s achievement if children lived in the least disadvantaged neighborhoods. (This variable is instrumented.)

17. Analytic Method: 2-Stage Least Squares
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑎: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑏: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 2: 𝑦 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 × 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝐾 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 4 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖
The effect of living in a more disadvantaged neighborhood compared to a less disadvantaged neighborhood on children’s 3rd grade achievement if children did not attend Pre-K.

18. Analytic Method: 2-Stage Least Squares
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑎: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑏: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 2: 𝑦 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 × 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝐾 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 4 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖
The incremental effect of Pre-K associated with living in a more- compared to a less-disadvantaged neighborhood. (This interaction is instrumented).

19. Analytic Method: 2-Stage Least Squares
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑎: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑏: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 2: 𝑦 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 × 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝐾 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 4 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖
Vector of controls variables that include gender, race, English language background, age, immigrant status, cohort, urbanicity, and the percentage of residents who are black and Hispanic, respectively.

20. Analytic Method: 2-Stage Least Squares
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑎: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑏: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 2: 𝑦 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 × 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝐾 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 4 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖
Randomization pool fixed effect

21. Analytic Method: 2-Stage Least Squares
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑎: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1𝑏: 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝐼𝑇𝑇 𝑖 ×𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 2: 𝑦 𝑖 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 × 𝑇𝑂𝑇 𝑖 + 𝛽 2 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 3 × 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝐾 𝑖 × 𝑁ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑑𝐷𝑠𝑣𝑡𝑔 𝑖 + 𝛽 4 ×𝜃+𝛾+ 𝜀 𝑖
Standard error clustered at neighborhood level

22. TCAP-Reading

23. TCAP-Reading
Attending PreK and living in the least disadvantaged neighborhoods in TN produces a strong negative effect on children’s third-grade reading achievement.

24. TCAP-Reading
Neighborhood disadvantage has a depressive effect on children’s achievement in the absence of PreK.

25. TCAP-Reading
The effect of PreK on children’s 3rd grade reading achievement becomes less negative as neighborhood disadvantage increases.

26. TCAP-Reading
The effect of attending PreK is over 1 Standard Deviation higher for children living in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods in TN compared to the least disadvantaged.

27. Results: TCAP-Math

28. Results: TCAP-Math
Attending PreK and living in the least disadvantaged neighborhoods in TN produces a strong negative effect on children’s third-grade math achievement.

29. Results: TCAP-Math
This study finds mixed evidence that exposure to a disadvantaged neighborhood in the absence of PreK affects children’s 3rd grade math achievement.

30. Results: TCAP-Math
This study finds limited evidence that the effect of PreK on children’s 3rd grade math achievement varied by neighborhood disadvantage.

31. What about a continuous measure of neighborhood disadvantage?

32. What about a continuous measure of neighborhood disadvantage?

33. What about a continuous measure of neighborhood disadvantage?
In terms of 3rd grade reading achievement, children living in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods benefitted the most from attending Pre-K.

34. What about a continuous measure of neighborhood disadvantage?

35. What about a continuous measure of neighborhood disadvantage?
This study finds no evidence that neighborhood disadvantage moderates the effects of Pre-K on math achievement.

36. How does the TNVPK sample compare to poor children across TN in terms of exposure to disadvantaged neighborhoods?

37. Returning to the Research Question...
Do the effects of attending Pre-K on children’s 3rd grade achievement vary by the amount of disadvantage in the children’s home neighborhood at baseline?
Answer: Yes for reading. Mostly no for math.

38. Conclusions
Low-income children living in the least disadvantaged neighborhoods in TN experienced negative effects from Pre-K exposure on 3rd grade math and reading.
The effect of attending PreK on low-income children’s third grade reading achievement is over 1 SD higher for children living in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods compared to the least.
Fewer highly-disadvantaged neighborhoods were represented in the sample than would otherwise have been expected had the sample been randomly drawn from the population of low-income children in Tennessee who were of preschool age.

39. Potential Policy Implications
Increase the representation of children from highly-disadvantaged neighborhoods in preschool classrooms.
Concentrate Pre-K classrooms in highly-disadvantaged neighborhoods to attract children who would presumably benefit most.
Create better access channels for children living in highly-disadvantaged neighborhoods to attend preschool in other neighborhoods.
Targeting advertising & recruitment
Transportation hubs
Enrollment “Caps & Floors”

40. Thank you.