1. CIS-Working Group on Climate Change and Water 20
CIS-Working Group on Climate Change and Water 20. November Adapting to Climate Change - preliminary messages from the CAIWA Conference and the NeWater project Dr. Sabine Möllenkamp Prof. Dr. Claudia Pahl-Wostl Institute of Environmental Systems Research University of Osnabrück / Germany

2. Managing Extremes and Uncertainties
Technical Precautions
“Acceptable” risk threshold
Extremes (un-adapted) x1
Drought Risk
Flood Risk
Frequency
Normal
Variability
The figure shows a distribution of variability of a climate variable (e.g. precipitation). Natural buffering capacity of enviornmental and social systems is increased by technical precautions.
Regarding risks it is assumed to be able to quantify risk by as the product of likelhood and damage. This is a problem when tails of the distributions become increasingly uncertain as expected to happen due to climate change.
Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)

3. Adapt to climate change – adaptive and integrated water resources management
Adaptive management is a systematic process for improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of implemented management strategies
By doing so it explicitly recognizes uncertainty and complexity

4. Key messages from CAIWA
Connecting policies and sectors
Better connection of WFD implementation with other policies at all levels
avoid contradicting incentives in different sectors, in particular agriculture, transport, energy, spatial planning (early co-ordination between ministries etc.)
Stronger link between restoration of good ecological status (in particular changes in structure) and flood protection (from purely technical measures to “more room for the river”)
Communicating and co-ordinating between scales
Transparently communicate between scales of water management (esp. regional and local levels)

5. Managing extremes
Management of droughts and floods – initiatives on different levels with stakeholder involvement
Harmonisation of human and nature water needs under water scarcity (e.g. E-flows as a management and communication tool; holistic approaches)
Enhancing dialogue
Mechanisms needed for better connection of technical discourse with political dialogue at multiple scales
Implementation of „adaptation platforms“ on river basin scale to reconsider measures and potential effects based on new insights (includes operational level, stakeholders and scientists)

6. Dealing with uncertainties
Explicitly acknowledge uncertainties arising from climate change – scenario planning and robust action
Prepare to deal with uncertainties (uncertainties increase with cc)
Transparently communicate climate change and (related) uncertainties
Active involvement of stakeholders in order to deal with uncertainties (rather than consultation)
Decisions need to be taken under uncertainty - science will not eliminate uncertainty
Perception of uncertainty: high quality is not low uncertainty

7. Messages from the Science-Policy Day
Incentive structures needed in science and practice in order to enhance dialogue
Need for new instruments eg: identification of research needs in policy-science dialogues; case studies in research projects; communities of practice in river basins (science, policy (administration, politics), stakeholders); PR in research institutes, inclusion of co-operation with science in work assignments; train people to bridge: learn both languages
Need to consider ability to give advice; ability to take advice; ability to use advice in policy making

8. Procedural consequences for the RBMP
Cyclical character of WFD implementation offers good opportunities to include adaptation and build upon new insights in research and policy
Integrate climate change as early as possible, preferably in the first plan
Check each element of the RBMP and make it climate proof: consider dynamics - no static river systems. Adaptation should be an integral element, eg also in public participation

9. Consequences for the RBMP
Check for enough flexibilty in the plan
Allow for and promote experimentation and evaluation: promote learning cycles
Evaluate decisions by the costs of reversing them
Develop an enabling framework for autonomous adaptation

10. Thank you for your attention