4. 4

5. Risk factors for instability
External Internal
Bad regional neighborhood
Geopolitical Competition
Organized crime and terrorist networks
Conflict financing systems
Climate change
Low GDP/capita
Economic decline
History of conflict
Natural resource dependency
Horizontal inequality
Demographic patterns
HIV/AIDS 5

6. Country capacity and resilience
Constraints on state power
Political institutions
Legal/economic institutions
Executive checks & balances
Social Contract
Leadership
Legitimacy
Expectations vs. delivery
State Capacity
Security
Macro-economic fundamentals
Public goods provision
Civil Society
Traditional/ religious/ interest groups 6

7. External stabilising factors
Security Guarantees
Bilateral
Multilateral
Political Relationships
Bilateral diplomatic ties
Regional organization
Economic Associations
Open external markets
High quality FDI
Remittances 7

11. GAO June 18, 2008 GAO-08-883T Testimony
Table 3: Defense Assessment of ANP Capabilities, as of April 2008 Police units
CM1Fully Capable
CM2Capable withCoalition Support
CM3 Partially Capable
CM4Not Capable
Unit Not Formed or Not Reportinga
Uniformed Police Districts (365) 6
296 57
Border Police Battalions (33) 33
Civil Order Police Battalions (20) 2 10
Counter Narcotics Police Units (15) 3
Number of ANP units (433)
12 (3%)
18 (4%)
334 (77%)
69 (16%)
GAO June 18, 2008
Testimony
Before the Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, House of Representatives
“AFGHANISTAN SECURITY” “U.S. Efforts to Develop Capable Afghan Police Forces Face Challenges and Need a Coordinated, Detailed Plan to Help Ensure Accountability”
Statement of Charles Michael Johnson, Jr., Director International Affairs and Trade
GAO T

12. Table 3: Defense Assessment of ANP Capabilities, as of April 2008 Police units
CM1Fully Capable
CM2Capable withCoalition Support
CM3 Partially Capable
CM4Not Capable
Unit Not Formed or Not Reportinga
Uniformed Police Districts (365)
Border Police Battalions (33)
Civil Order Police Battalions (20)
Counter Narcotics Police Units (15)
Number of ANP units (433) 18 16 22
317 61