1. ~100 yrs of global temperature trends predictions

2. Phenology is the study of periodic plant and animal life cycle events
and how these are influenced by
seasonal and interannual variation
in climate.
A central concept when studying the relationship between climate, phenology, and other life history traits is the match vs. mismatch of the climate–phenology response within different components of the ecological system.
A central concept when studying the relationship between climate, phenology, and other life history traits is the match vs. mismatch of the climate–phenology response within different components of the ecological system. (A) The environmental cues triggering onset of egg laying change in asynchrony to the environmental conditions prevailing when chicks are reared and when birds' energetic demands are the highest, as shown for Great tit (18). (B) The differential climate change between summer and winter ranges may lead to problems in the transition for migratory birds, such as the American robin (21).

3. Nesting (fill areas represent successful attempts)
Food
fledglings
predators

4. Nesting (fill areas represent successful attempts)
Food
fledglings
predators
Nestlings need the most food in the second half of the nestling phase
This requires parents have (1) built a nest, (2) laid, and (3) incubated the eggs
Great tit lays 9 eggs, incubates 9 days and chick peak demand is 10 days later…
start laying 32 days before the expected food peak
Late breeders almost always do poorly! So if food supply is advanced
Breeding BETTER be advanced

5. Pied
Flycatcher
Christiaan Both
Netherlands

6. But concentrating on food is too simple b/c multiple factors can shift

7. Budburst advanced (0.17 d/yr)
Caterpillars advanced (0.75 d/yr)
Birds advanced
( d/yr)
No change in
Predators

8. Correlations peak demand
and peak availability one
trophic level down
What do you notice?

9. But in other studies its not food
Climate- and resource-driven long-term changes in dormice populations negatively affect hole-nesting songbirds
P. Adam´ık & M. Kr´al
But in other studies its not food
whose phenology shifts, its predators
30 day earlier occupation!
Edible dormouse (Czech Republic)

10. Species differences
to global change is
probably the NORM

11. But its more complicated than a simple mismatch….
Warmer temps yield greater beech mast…
And more dormice….

12. The phenology mismatch hypothesis: are declines of migrant birds linked to uneven global climate change?

16. Pygoscelis adeliae
Pygoscelis
antarcticus

17. UN Food and Agriculture Organization [http://www. fao

23. National Snow and Ice Data Center [http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index

27. Adelie penguins have lived in the Western Antarctica for over 600 years.   

28. This photo is taken within the last ten years
This photo is taken within the last ten years.  The green line is a stark reminder that the number of breeding Adelie pairs has decreased from around 13,600 in 1981 to around 2,700 in 2011.

29. Too much precipitation leads breeding grounds
covered in snow, which melts