1. Update on seasonal forecast system based on SL-AV model at Hydrometcentre of Russia. Decadal prediction plans.
M.A. Tolstykh (2,1)
and
D.B.Kiktev (1), R.B. Zaripov (1), E.N.Kruglova (1), I.A.Kulikova (1)
Hydrometcentre of Russia (1);
Institute of Numerical Matematics Russian Academy of Sciences (2)
2015

2. Plan Seasonal forecast system at HMCR
Plans for running decadal forecasts at INM RAS

3. Seasonal version of SL-AV model
Semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian vorticity-divergence dynamical core of own development (Tolstykh 2010), mostly ALADIN/LACE parameterizations.
Current version: Resolution 1.4x1.125 degrees lon/lat, 28 levels. Described in (Tolstykh et al, Izvestia RAN, Ser. PhA&O, 2010) with updates in (Tolstykh et al Izvestia RAN, 2014)
Verification of seasonal forecasts (also for MGO (St.Petersbourg) forecasts)

4. Running forecasts
d0-63: 1.1x1.4 L28 once a week, 20 member ensemble initialized on 00Z every Wednesday forced py persisted SST anomalies (mean for 2 weeks) from NCEP (Reynolds SST OI v2). Perturbation from a breeding cycle. Re-forecast suite with 10 members spanning 30 years ( ) run in real-time.
m0-4: Forecast suite is the same as d0-63, but forecast lead time is 4 months. Runs on the last Wednesday of a month. Re-forecast suite with 10 members spanning 30 years ( ) 00Z and 12Z of each month (24-28 for February).
Input to APCC, WMO LC LRF multi-model ensemble. Forecasts are also available at North Eurasia Climate Centre site (neacc.meteoinfo.ru)

5. Scores and forecasts at NEACC site
Skill scores: ROC_A - ROC Score Above Normal ROC_N - ROC Score Near Normal ROC_B - ROC Score Below Normal RO - sign consistency coefficient ACC - anomaly correlation coefficient RMSE - root mean square error
Some plots from WMO LC are also available

6. Activities since 16th session
NEACC site (forecasts, diagnostics – scores, indices,…)
Implementing CHFP and S2S output standards.
New snow albedo parameterization in SL-AV, cloudiness retuning.
Moving from NCEP2 to ERA Interim data for hindcasts.
Too fast transition to new technology -> serious bug in operational seasonal forecasts in January
Corrected by the end of February

7. Comparison of hindcasts errors for 2011 and 2014 versions
Comparison of hindcasts errors for 2011 and 2014 versions. RMSE averaged over 4 seasons and 28 years ( ), for H500(dam) , MSLP (hPa), T850, Т2м, H200 (dam) with respect to reanalysis . S20 - (90 - 20 S), N20 – (20-90 N), TR – (20S-20N).
Изменения за все 4 сезона. Изменения для зимнего периода в Т2м – положительны

8. New version of the model
More accurate SW and LW radiation parameterization(CLIRAD SW + RRTM LW).
ALARO-0 microphysics
Increased horizontal resolution (0.72°x0.9° lat-lon)
Promising preliminary results (especially in dynamics), poor precip so far, tuning is underway

9. Plans for decadal forecasts at INM RAS
INMCM5 with improvements
- higher model top, better stratosphere resolution,
- new cloudiness and condensation parameterizations,
- aerosols description.
Two resolutions considered:
`Optimistic’: Atm. 2˚x1.5˚L73, Oc. 0.5˚x0.25˚L40 (twice higher ocean horizontal resolution than in CMIP5)
Atm. 2˚x1.5˚L21, Oc. 1˚x0.5˚L40
Depends on computer resources availability

10. Thank you for attention!