1. The Economic Effects of Brexit: A Challenge for the System Dynamics Community.
Brian Dangerfield
Dept of Management
University of Bristol

3. BACKGROUND
The 2008 financial crisis took the economics profession by surprise
There were a minority who subsequently claimed to have foreseen the events & their consequences
In the Brexit case we don’t have to foresee the event itself but we do need to consider the economic
consequences…
It’s a shock on a par with the 2008 financial crisis (possibly more severe) and the consequences of that
crisis are arguably still being felt
Given most analysts would claim that you can’t consider the economic consequences without the aid
of a model it seems opportune for the SD community to respond by creating models which purport to
project the economic effects over, say, the next 10 years

4. THE CHALLENGE
Prepare and document an SD model projecting the consequences of Brexit on the UK economy; team can consist of
any number of persons
Likely horizon is 10 years ( ); model would depict the main economic variables such as GDP; inflation;
interest rates; unemployment; government debt; consumer spending etc. Model can embrace fewer or more of these
macro variables; it can be set at industry level if preferred, but no lower
We have 2017 data to examine the immediate effects; most important here is the fall in the £
Models to encompass a maximum of ~100 variables (rates; levels; aux). Parameters are extra
Can use any SD (or indeed wider) modelling software which produces graphs covering the next 10 years
Can submit up to TWO models (to cover any dilemmas you may have)
Regard this NOT as a competition but as a challenge which illustrates the utility of SD for economic modelling

5. THE ROLE OF THE UK CHAPTER
The UK Chapter would receive any submissions by, say, 31st March 2018 and would effectively date-stamp
their receipt
The information in these slides + submission instructions will appear on the Chapter website
Periodically the Chapter might rehearse the progress of the projections in the various models at events such as this,
with a final overall review in 2029

6. QUESTIONS ? COMMENTS?
If you have any thoughts subsequent to this meeting then please send them to me
by end-September