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Process View & Strategy Part 3

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Presentation on theme: "Process View & Strategy Part 3"— Presentation transcript:

1 Process View & Strategy Part 3
Process View & Strategy Part 3. Performance Measures NPV-IRR Based on the Book: Managing Business Process Flow.

2 Compute Your Average Composition of marks in one of your courses is as follows: Internet Games, 10 %; Weekly Quizzes, 30%; Midterm Exam, 20%; Final Exam, 40%. Suppose at the end of the semester, your grades are as follows: Internet Games; 80, Weekly Quizzes; 90, Midterm Exam; 90, Final Exam; 70. Compute your overall average grade at the end of the semester. 0.1(80)+0.3(90)+0.2(90)+0.4(70)= = 81 2. Suppose you have not taken the final exam yet. We have been asked to report your current grade in the scale of A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, or F. Compute your numerical average grade before taking the final on the scale of 1 to 100. This numerical grade will be used to identify your letter grade.

3 What you Need in Final 0.1(80)+0.3(90)+0.2(90)= =53 53 out of 60 not out of 100 Your grade = 53/0.6 = Alternatively 0.1/0.6 =, 0.3/0.6 = 0.5, 0.2/0.6 = (80)+0.5(90) (90)= = What do you need to get in the final exam to secure an overall grade of B+ in the course (an overall average of 86 or more) X ≥ X ≥ X ≥ 33 X ≥ 33/0.4 X ≥ 82.5

4 Alternatively 0. 6(88. 33) + 0. 4X ≥ 86 0. 4X ≥ 86-53 0
Alternatively 0.6(88.33) + 0.4X ≥ X ≥ X ≥ 33 X ≥ 33/0.4 X ≥ 82.5

5 Future Value (FV) $100, put it in a bank. Interest rate = 10%. How much after 1 year. P = F? F1 = (100) = 100(1+0.1) How much after 2 years? F2= 100(1+0.1) + 0.1(100(1+0.1)) = F2= 100(1+0.1) (1+0.1) = 100(1.1)2 How much after 3 years? F3 = 100(1.1) [100(1.1)2] = F3 = 100(1.1)2 [1+0.1] = 100(1.1)2 [1.1] = 100(1.1)3 How much after N years F = 100(1.1)N

6 Future Value (FV); Present Value (PV)
P: The initial vale MARR: Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return F= P(1+MARR)N P = F/(1+MARR)N P = F/(1+r)N r = the minimum acceptable rate of return =FV(r, N,PMT,PV,0 EOY) = =PV(r, N,PMT,FV,0 EOY) =

7 Present Value Index Table
=FV(r,N, PMT, PV,0) = FV(10%,3,0,100,0) = =PV(r,N, PMT, FV,0) = PV(10%,3,0,133.1,0) =

8 Back to the PBP Example The initial investment of a project at the end of year 0 is 10 million dollars. Depreciation is computed using straight-line method with accounting life of five years and zero salvage value. Net income before tax and depreciation is 3 million dollars per year. The tax rate is 40%. Compute net income after tax in Year 1. Compute net cash inflow in Year 1. At the end of year 7 we sell everything for 5 million dollars. Compute NPV and IRR. Net Income Before Tax and Depreciation 3 Depreciation Income Before Tax 1 Tax Net Income After Tax Cash Flow of Depreciation 2 Net cash flow per year This is true for the first 5 yeas.

9 Future Value (FV); Present Value (PV)
But after year 5 we do not have depreciation. Therefore, the two million dollars depreciation is not a cost anymore. Our revenue will increases by 2- 0.4(2) = 1.2 million dollars. Net income after tax = =1.8 Net Income Before Tax and Depreciation 3 Depreciation Income Before Tax 3 Tax (3) =1.2 Net Income After Tax in Year Net Income After Tax in Year (5) = 4.8

10 Net Present Value (NPV)
I0 = the initial investment Ft = the net cash flow in period t r = the required rate of return Important note: NPV function in excel assumes that the first cash flow is at the end of year 1.

11 Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
The discount rate (r) that causes the NPV to be equal to zero The higher the IRR, the better In Excel “=IRR(Series,Guess)” Compare IRR with MARR Here it is not important where the first payment is – end of year 1 or end of year 0. The NPV for IRR is 0 everywhere.

12 Your Mortgage; PMT and PPMT
100,000 loan 4% interest rate 30 years fixed Your monthly payment =PMT(monthly rate,#of months,pv,[fv], [type]) =PMT(0.04/12, 30*12, ) =PPMT(0.04/12, 1, 30*12, ) =PPMT(0.04/12, 61, 30*12, ) =PPMT(0.04/12, 121, 30*12, ) CUMIPMT(4%/12,12*30,100000,1,12*30,0) =CUMPRINC(4%/12,12*30,100000,1,12*30,0)

13 Practice: Net Income vs. Net Cash Inflow
The initial investment of a project at the end of year 0 is 10 million dollars. Depreciation is computed using straight-line method with accounting life of 4 years and accounting salvage value of 0. Total revenue is 6 million dollars per year. All expenses, excluding depreciation and tax are 2 million dollars per year. Useful life of the project (which differs from accounting life) is 7 years. At the end of the useful life the project is sold for 2 million dollars. Tax rate of operating income as well as capital gain is 30%. Compute profit per year during the accounting life of the project. Revenue Operating Expenses 2 Net Income Before Tax and Depreciation 4 Depreciation Income Before Tax Tax (1.5) = 0.45 Net Income After Tax (years 1-4)

14 Practice: Net Income vs. Net Cash Inflow
Compute net cash inflow during the accounting life of the project. Net Income After Tax Depreciation Net Cash Inflow (years 1-4) Compute net cash inflow per year after accounting life is over and before the last year of the useful life of the project. Net Income After Tax Depreciation added to the profit 2.5 Tax on the additional profit due to end of depreciation (0.3)(2.5) = 0.75 Net income added = 1.75 Total Net Income = 2.8 Net Cash Inflow (years 5-6)

15 I Am Sure It Was Easy to Grasp By a CSUN Student
If it was not easy to grasp, you may look at it from a different perspective Revenue Operating Expenses 2 Net Income Before Tax and Depreciation 4 Tax (4) = 1.2 Net Income After Tax (years 1-4) Compute net cash inflow in the last year of the useful life of the project. Net Income After Tax Project Sold Capital Gain Tax (2) = 0.6 Net Capital Gain Net Cash inflow = 4.2

16 Practice: Net Income vs. Net Cash Inflow
What is the net cash flow of the project during its useful life. Compute NPV under 10% MARR and IRR.

17 Practice: Net Income vs. Net Cash Inflow
An investment at the end of year 0 has a depreciation life of 4 years and salvage value of 0. Depreciation is computed using straight line method and is 2.5 million dollars per year. Useful life of the project (which differs from accounting life) is 7 years. Other revenues and costs of the investment remain the same over the useful life of the investment. At the end of year 7, all the assets are sold for 2 million dollars. Tax rate of operating income as well as capital gain is 30%. The net income after depreciation and tax at the end of year 1 is 1.05 million dollars. Compute the net cash flow in year 1. = It will remain the same in years 1-4 Compute the net cash flow in year 5. – 0.3(2.5) = 2.8 (2.5) = 2.8 Compute the net cash flow in year 7 (2) = (2) = = 4.2


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