1. Making Statistics Talk 1 - Effective reporting of statistical results PPT1
CONTRACTOR IS ACTING UNDER A FRAMEWORK CONTRACT CONCLUDED WITH THE COMMISSION

2. Course overview Principles for writing a statistical report
Identifying and conveying the key message
Using graphics to convey a statistical message
Introduction to Eurostat’s ‘Flexible dashboard’ tool and other similar tools

3. Principles for writing a statistical report
Write for the audience
Comprehensive coverage of data developments
Refer to a body of knowledge and established frameworks
The borderline between explanation and analysis

4. Statistics explained An encyclopaedia on European Union statistics;
A portal to further information for occasional and for regular users;
A statistical glossary.
Wiki structure designed for collaborative writing
Statistical articles are proposed by an expert in a given field, but can then be reviewed easily by his/her colleague or supervisor. They can be revised by different persons under different angles, for example by a statistical expert on content, by a native English speaker on language, by a technical person on layout and presentation, and by a reviser on coherence or political correctness.
Source: Statistics Explained – a user-friendly and low-cost dissemination system, Ulrich Wieland, Eurostat

5. Statistics Explained - objectives
Initial purpose is to provide full information to users about Eurostat’s data and metadata
data overview, metadata and non-technical explanations - static
Increasing use is to provide a primary statistics dissemination medium
current information that requires more frequent update - dynamic
this objective can more easily be met with less frequent statistics series
Statistics Explained is an online publishing system about EU statistics which uses MediaWiki technology and resembles Wikipedia. It is a wiki-based system that presents statistical articles which together form an encyclopaedia of European statistics, completed by a glossary of the statistical concepts and terms used. In addition, numerous links are provided to the latest data and metadata and to further information, making Statistics Explained a portal for regular and occasional users alike.
Less frequent statistics series are here meant annual or less.

6. Statistics explained structure
Static VS. Dynamic: the term 'Static' is meant in the sense of a static database table, i.e. updated not on a regular basis.
Summary paragraph - dynamic
Main statistical findings - dynamic
Data sources and availability - static
Context - static
Further Eurostat information – direct links - static
External links - static
Main statistical findings highlight the most important statistical results, both through text and through graphs and tables.
Data sources and availability briefly describes how the data were obtained (for example, by which survey) as well as potential limitations and problems.
Context discusses reasons behind the data collection and the uses that may be made of the data; it may refer to the legal basis, the policy context, the importance for politics, business or the society as a whole.
Further Eurostat information provides direct links to more detailed or more recent information on the Eurostat website including freshest data, publications, or detailed methodological information.
External links to related information from other institutions and organisations.
Hint: Suggest trainees to find a statistics explained page that has this structure and follow the comments while looking at it.

7. Statistics explained audience
Expert & non-expert users - occasional and regular visitors
As with most other statistics publications
Readers may not have specialist knowledge in
Subject matter being covered
Statistics

8. Write for your audience
Data sources and availability describes the structural characteristics of the statistics
This is static information; it should not need to be edited very often
Be accurate in description of concepts
(the experts are reading)
Explain technical terms to non-experts
Referring to the glossaries

9. Mini-exercise – accuracy in writing
Rephrase this statement:
“An increase in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy is called inflation; it is usually measured by consumer price indices or retail price indices.” 
From Statistics Explained - Consumer prices - inflation and comparative price levels
An increase in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy is called inflation. One of the important inflation statistics is the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the prices of goods and services acquired, used or paid for by households.  
What was wrong with this statement?
The statement ‘It is usually measured by’ suggests that this concept can safely be adopted as the correct measure of inflation. However, in some situations, other statistics such as GDP deflator, are more appropriate.

10. Data sources and availability 1
What is being measured?
Refer to EU and UN manuals / regulations
How measured - classification (nomenclature) and disaggregations
Structure can be illustrated by graphic of weights structure
Coverage of the main data series
Include recent changes
Data sources and frequency

11. Data sources and availability 2
Explain relationship to other series,
For example where survey and administrative data both exist
Convey inherent variability and/or uncertainty of data, where appropriate
Especially in relation to disaggregation
Database metadata pages are source
Major methodological explanations can be written on specific pages
Inherent variability – when the change between two consecutive data releases typically show large variations, especially at disaggregated levels. Example: external trade.

12. Data sources and availability 3
Illustrate classification structure
Weights of the main components of the euro area HICP – 2014
Arguments for / against showing full COICOP12?
In favour – provides full information about consumption structure
Against: - pie-charts with >5 items are difficult to grasp visually

13. Exercise 1
Draft two paragraphs of Data sources and availability for HICP or another statistics series of your choice (10 minutes)
10 minutes discussion

14. Context Reasons behind the data collection
Uses of the data; legal basis
Policy context: politics, business, society
Historical evolution of the data
Long-term geographical structure
Cross-refer to other data series where potential exists for inappropriate demands for data
Can refer to commercial data sources
E.g. private business surveys
Where potential exists for inappropriate demands for data: example – geographical disaggregation of national accounts. Data sources often do not exist; compilation costs are high and interpretation can be difficult. Regional production and employment data provide alternative sources for demands for regional activity measures.

15. Exercise 2
Draft two paragraphs for the Context for HICP or another statistics series of your choice (10 minutes)
10 minutes discussion

16. Summary paragraph
One or two paragraphs to summarise the static pages - data sources and availability / context
Approximately 40 first words of latest posts appear on the Statistics Explained Main Page

17. Links Links provided within Eurostat website and to external websites
Links need to be organised and explained
E.G. Link to Inflation in the euro area
Static panel

18. Main statistical findings
Comments on most recent data – dynamic
Dates need to be identifiable – file history
Cover data developments comprehensively
Explain the data changes without analysing external causes
Check the analysis – base period, disaggregation
Explain clearly
Dates need to be identifiable:
Release date for statistics under discussion
Reference date for these statistics
Update date for ‘Findings’ – since the page could potentially be altered after first release

19. Coverage of data developments
Aggregate changes (EU & Eurozone):
from previous period
from year before / other historical base date
From trend (to be considered later)
Member State comparisons
as above
highlight range of outcomes and trend changes
Why might analysis from historical base date be misleading?

20. Example of data developments: HICP
geo\time
2013M03
2013M04
2013M05
2013M06
2013M07
2013M08
2013M09
2013M10
2013M11
2013M12
2014M01
M02e
M/M-1
EU (28 countries)
0.9
0.1
-0.4
0.4
-0.1
0.3
-0.9
Euro area (18 countries)
1.2
-0.5
0.5
-1.1
M/M-12
1.9
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.3 1
1.1
0.7
0.8
Percentage change - 12 months average
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1 2
1.8
HICP all items 2014M1
Link to HICP - all items
CPI Consumer Price Index
HICP Harmonised index of consumer prices
Why might month / month-1 data be misleading?
Why might month / month-12 data be misleading?

21. HICP ‘Core inflation’ to 2014M1
geo\time
2013M03
2013M04
2013M05
2013M06
2013M07
2013M08
2013M09
2013M10
2013M11
2013M12
2014M01
M02e
M/M-1
EU (28 countries)
0.2
0.0
-0.6
0.6
0.1
-1.4
Euro area (18 countries)
-0.9
0.7
0.3
-1.7
M/M-12
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.3
0.9
1.0
1.2
1.1
0.8
Percentage change - 12 months average
1.4
HICP ‘Overall index excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’ 2014M1
Link to HICP - all items
TOT_X_NRG_FOOD Overall index excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco

23. Financial Times 28/02/2014 Eurozone inflation firm at 0.8% in February
By Claire Jones in Frankfurt and Guy Dinmore in Rome
Eurozone inflation has held firm ahead of next week’s crucial European Central Bank policy meeting, slightly easing pressure on the ECB to tackle falling inflation…
Eurostat, the EU’s statistics bureau, reported on Friday that inflation remained stable at 0.8 per cent in February… Core inflation, which excludes more volatile items such as food and energy prices, rose to 1 per cent, surprising economists, who had expected it to remain at 0.8 per cent.

24. Comments
Distinction press release / commentary: increase in ‘core inflation’
Look at this again under disaggregation
Both look at annual data, not monthly data, which shows a different path
Why is annual data the focus of attention?
Why might annual data be misleading?
What is the risk in imposing a trend on monthly data?

26. Financial Times – Martin Wolf
The spectre of Eurozone deflation, March 11, 2014
The European Central Bank is failing to hit its own target for price stability. … But the ECB has been far less successful in securing price stability… Its aim is to achieve inflation “below, but close to, 2 per cent over the medium term”. Yet in the year to February 2014, headline inflation was 0.8 per cent. This is hardly close to 2 per cent…. Deflation is absent: only three countries have negative inflation and only a fifth of items in the consumer price index have fallen in price. 

27. Avoid contentious analysis
Do not refer to external data or other causes
Martin Wolf again:
… This low inflation has, as is to be expected, coincided with weak demand. In the fourth quarter of last year, eurozone real demand was 5 per cent below levels in the first quarter of In Spain, real demand fell 16 per cent. In Italy, it fell 12 per cent. Even in Germany, real demand stagnated from the second quarter of 2011: this is no locomotive. The failure to offset this has made recovery of crisis-hit economies more difficult, lowered investment and created long-term unemployment. 
He can do this, statisticians cannot

28. Disaggregated analysis
Examine top level disaggregation for range of outcomes
Look at contribution of each component to aggregate result
Small components may have higher variability than large components
And may be able to be safely ignored
Do the same for geographical or alternative classification

29. HICP, Euro-18, m/m changes 0.1 -0.5 0.5 -0.1 0.4 -1.1 0.6 -0.4 0.7 0.9
COICOP/TIME
EU-28
Euro-18
2013M05
2013M06
2013M07
2013M08
2013M09
2013M10
2013M11
2013M12
2014M01
All-items HICP
0.1
-0.5
0.5
-0.1
0.4
-1.1
Food & non-alcohl bevergs
158.21
157.13
0.6
-0.4
0.7
Alcoholic bevrgs, tobcco …
45.57
40.44
0.9
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.8
Clothing & footwear
62.12
63.36
-1.2
-13.8
14.5
2.0
-0.2
-0.9
-15.2
Hsing, watr, electrc, gas, othr fuels
158.58
163.19
Furnishings, etc
63.43
65.97
-0.8
-0.7
Health
41.99
43.64
Transport
148.51
152.21
1.0
Communications
31.46
30.58
-0.3
Recreation and culture
100.50
94.78
1.9
-1.8
1.5
-2.5
Education
12.41
10.47
-0.6
Restaurants and hotels
89.83
91.38
Misc. goods & services
87.38
86.85
What is striking about this data?
What is the consequence for aggregate inflation if the high magnitude data are a mistake?

30. Inflation m/m-1 for Member States
GEO/TIME
2013M05
2013M06
2013M07
2013M08
2013M09
2013M10
2013M11
2013M12
2014M01
EU 28
0.1
0.0
-0.4
0.4
-0.1
0.3
-0.9
Euro 18
-0.5
0.5
-1.1
Belgium
-1.3
1.6
-0.2
-1.9
Bulgaria
-0.3
0.2
Czech Republic
Denmark
Germany
-0.7
Estonia
0.6
Ireland
-0.6
Greece
-1.6
-1.7
2.5
0.8
Spain
-1.8
France
Croatia
Italy
1.8
-2.1
Cyprus
Latvia
-1.0
0.7
Lithuania
Luxembourg
1.4
Hungary
-0.8
Malta
1.1
-2.2
-1.5
Netherlands
Austria
1.0
Poland
Portugal
-1.4
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sweden
-1.2
United Kingdom
Graph in next session

31. Volatility and accuracy
Provide sampling errors for survey-based statistics or explain why this is not done.
Accuracy measures, such as flash estimate accuracy should be statistically based
Maybe R2 ?
Possible data issues to be treated diplomatically
‘a large but potentially reversible change in the price of clothing and footwear’

32. Summary of analysis Aggregate data changes are more important
Examine data over a reasonable period
Period to period changes may be ephemeral
Check that the base period data is not an outlier
Examine data trends in different ways
Use moving averages, fit different trend lines
Look at disaggregated data changes, sceptically
By classification, top level ; geographically
Comprehensive coverage of changes

33. Readability Writing should be clear to non-specialists
Technical, statistical terms should be explained in text or in footnotes
If necessary, in a specialised panel or (if noting else possible) its own page
Refer to Eurostat’s style guides
Use reading ease indicators as guide

34. Reading ease indicators in Microsoft Word
File / Options / Proofing
 Show readability statistics / OK
Reading level should be about university year 1
e.g. Flesch reading ease >30
e.g. Flesch-Kincaid grade level <=14
Alternative reading ease indicators exist
Wikipedia in its article describes issues well
Current statistics explained page ’Inflation in the Euro area’ scores Flesh 24.6 Flesch-Kinkaid 15.6

35. Manage your pages!
Maintaining the coherent organisation of wiki pages is important
The organising principle of Statistics Explained is that the technical unit is in charge of their pages
The main identification of pages by Categories is not heirarchical and therefore can be duplicated
The hierarchical Statistical themes page is currently incomplete
Was not in original wiki plan
See the following links:
Inflation in the euro area
Consumer prices
Annual inflation and ist main component
Each page is 'owned' by the statistical unit responsible for the topic. In case of cooperation between units on a subject, a responsible unit is identified after consultation.
Please refer to Wieland presentation:
Numerous overlapping pages exist in Wikipedia – maintaining a coherent structure is very difficult

36. Thank you
CONTRACTOR IS ACTING UNDER A FRAMEWORK CONTRACT CONCLUDED WITH THE COMMISSION