Is the World Becoming a Riskier Place

Is the World Becoming a Riskier Place
Is the World Becoming a Riskier Place? Economic Overview and New York Insurance Market Outlook for 2012 & Beyond Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of New York Albany, NY January 30, 2012 Download at Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist Insurance Information Institute  110 William Street  New York, NY 10038 Tel:  Cell:  

What in the World Is Going On?
Is the World Becoming a Riskier Place? What Are the Implications for Insurance and Risk Management? 3

We Are Living in an Age of Elevated Global Economic Uncertainty
ECONOMIC & POLITICAL CONCERNS European Sovereign Debt, Bank & Currency Crises Global Economic Slowdown Echoes of the Financial Crisis & Financial Market Volatility Collapse of Major Financial Institutions U.S. Debt and Budget Crisis, S&P Downgrade & Tax Uncertainty Housing Crisis Persistently High Unemployment Inflation/Deflation Energy & Commodity Prices Volatility Political Upheaval in the Middle East (Arab Spring, Iran) Regulation & Regulatory Uncertainty New World Order: China’s Economic and Military Ascendency 2012 US Elections & Political Brinksmanship CATASTROPHIC LOSS Japan, New Zealand, Chile, Haiti Earthquakes Nuclear Fears (Japan, Germany, US) Floods (Thailand, US) U.S.: Tornadoes, Flooding, Wildfires, Hurricanes, Winter Storms Manmade Disasters (e.g., Deepwater Horizon) Cyber Attacks Resurgent Terrorism Risk (Bin Laden, Gadhafi, Kim Jong Il deaths) Are “Black Swans” everywhere or does it just seem that way? 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

P/C Insurance Industry Financial Overview
Profit Recovery Was Set Back in 2011 by High Catastrophe Loss & Other Factors 8

P/C Net Income After Taxes 1991–2011:Q3 ($ Millions)
P-C Industry 2011:Q3 profits were down 71% to $8.0B vs. 2010:Q3, due primarily to high catastrophe losses and as non-cat underwriting results deteriorated 2005 ROE*= 9.6% 2006 ROE = 12.7% 2007 ROE = 10.9% 2008 ROE = 0.1% 2009 ROE = 5.0% 2010 ROE = 5.6% 2011:Q3 ROAS1 = 1.9% * ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 3.0% ROAS for 2011:Q3, 7.5% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute

A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What It Once Was: Investment Impact on ROEs
A combined ratio of about 100 generated ~5.5% ROE in 2009/10, 10% in 2005 and 16% in 1979 Combined Ratio / ROE Combined Ratios Must Be Lower in Today’s Depressed Investment Environment to Generate Risk Appropriate ROEs * figures are return on average surplus and exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. 2011:Q3 combined ratio including M&FG insurers is 109.9, ROAS = 1.9%. Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO data.

History suggests next ROE peak will be in 2016-2017
Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 – 2011* ROE History suggests next ROE peak will be in 1977:19.0% 1987:17.3% 10 Years 2006:12.7% 1997:11.6% 10 Years 9 Years 2011:3.0%* 1975: 2.4% 1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2% *Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs are I.I.I. estimates figure is an estimate based on annualized ROAS through Q3 data. Note: Data for exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. For 2011:Q3 ROAS = 1.9% including M&FG. Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best.

Profitability and Growth in New York P/C Insurance Markets
Analysis by Line and Nearby State Comparisons 15

RNW All Lines: NY vs. U.S., 2000-2010 (Percent)
P/C Insurer profitability in NY is below that of the US overall from US: 7.1% NY: 3.7% Sources: NAIC. 16 16

RNW PP Auto: NY vs. U.S., 2000-2010 Average 2000-2010 US: 7.1%
Sources: NAIC. 17 17

Commercial Auto profitability in NY is generally below the US average
RNW Comm. Auto: NY vs. U.S., (Percent) Commercial Auto profitability in NY is generally below the US average Average US: 8.5% NY: 6.1% Sources: NAIC. 18 18

RNW Comm. Multi-Peril: NY vs. U.S., 2000-2010
(Percent) Average US: 8.2% NY: 4.8% Sources: NAIC. 19 19

RNW Homeowners: NY vs. U.S., 2000-2010

RNW Workers Comp: NY vs. U.S., 2000-2010

All Lines: 10-Year Average RNW NY & Nearby States
New York All Lines profitability is below the US and regional average Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute

Top Ten Most Expensive And Least Expensive States For Automobile Insurance, 2009 (1)
Rank Most expensive states Average expenditure Least Average expenditure 1 D.C. $1,128 North Dakota $510 2 New Jersey 1,101 South Dakota 521 3 Louisiana 1,099 Iowa 532 4 New York 1,057 Idaho 555 5 Delaware 1,021 Nebraska 559 6 Florida 1,006 Kansas 578 7 Rhode Island 969 Wisconsin 590 8 Nevada 944 Maine 598 9 Connecticut 952 North Carolina 610 10 Maryland 929 Indiana 620 New York ranked 4th in 2009, with an average expenditure for auto insurance of $1,057. Based on average automobile insurance expenditures. Source: © 2011 National Association of Insurance Commissioners.

Comm. Auto: 10-Year Average RNW NY & Nearby States
New York Commercial Auto profitability is below the US and regional average Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute

Comm. M-P: 10-Year Average RNW NY & Nearby States
New York Commercial Multi-Peril profitability is below the US and regional average Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute

Homeowners: 10-Year Average RNW NY & Nearby States
New York Homeowners profitability is above the US and regional average Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute

Workers Comp: 10-Year Average RNW NY & Nearby States
New York Workers Comp profitability is below the US average and regional average Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute

All Lines DWP Growth: NY vs. U.S., 2001-2010
(Percent) Source: SNL Financial. 30 30

Comm. Lines DWP Growth: NY vs. U.S., 2001-2010

Personal Lines DWP Growth: NY vs. U.S., 2001-2010

Private Passenger Auto DWP Growth: NY vs. U.S., 2001-2010

Homeowner’s MP DWP Growth: NY vs. U.S., 2001-2010

New York No-Fault Update
Fraud and Abuse Have Cost New Yorkers Nearly $1 Billion Since 2005 35

Average No-Fault Claim Severity, 2011:Q3*
MI, NJ, NY and FL currently are the largest states that have the most severe problems in their no-fault system NY has the 4th highest auto no-fault average claim cost (severity) in the US Several States Including NY Have Severe and Growing Problems With Rampant Fraud and Abuse in their No-Fault Systems. Claim Severities Are Up Sharply. *Average of the four quarters ending 2011:Q3. Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

Increase in No-Fault Claim Severity: Selected States, 2004-2011*
+48.6% +45.6% +36.6% +36.5% +38.4% The no-fault systems in MI, NJ, NY, FL, and MN are under stress due to rising fraud and abuse, which leads to higher premiums for honest drivers. *2011 figures are for the 4 quarters ending 2011:Q3. Sources: Insurance Information Institute research from ISO/PCI Fast Track data. 38 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 38

New York State No-Fault Claim Frequency and Severity, 1997–2011:Q3
Avg. Claim Severity is up 44% since 2004:Q4 though 2011:Q3 No-Fault Claim Severity Claim Frequency was up 27% in 2011:Q1 from 2008:Q3 Avg. Claim Severity Rose 63% in 5 years after 1997 Presbyterian Decision Claim Severity nearly reached a record high in 2010:Q2: $8,990 About 10% of No-Fault Claim Costs in 2011 Were Estimated to Be Attributable to Fraud and Abuse *2011 figure is based on data for the 4 quarters ending Q3:2011. Source: Insurance Information Institute calculations and research from ISO/PCI Fast Track data. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

NY’s no fault fraud tax burden soared by 241% between 2006 and 2009
New York’s No-Fault Fraud Tax: Estimated Aggregate Annual Cost, E ($ Millions)* The total fraud tax levied on New York vehicle owners exceeded more than $200 million in 2010 for the second straight year. NY’s no fault fraud tax burden soared by 241% between 2006 and 2009 The total fraud tax levied on New York vehicle owners will total and estimated $136 million in The figure fell due to a drop in average claim severity and a flattening in frequency No-Fault Fraud Is Costing Honest New York State Drivers Hundreds of Millions of Dollars *2011 figure is based on data for the 4 quarters ending Q2:2011, adjusted by I.I.I. for 2011:Q1 data anomaly. Source: Insurance Information Institute calculations and research from ISO/PCI Fast Track data. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C
New York’s No-Fault Fraud Tax: Estimated Cumulative Cost, E ($ Millions)* The cumulative no-fault fraud tax burden on New York vehicle owners exceeded $949 million from 2005 through 2011 Cumulative No-Fault Fraud Has Cost Honest New York State Drivers and Their Insurers Nearly $1 Billion Since 2005 *2011 figure is based on data for the 4 quarters ending Q2:2011, adjusted by I.I.I. for 2011:Q1 data anomaly. Source: Insurance Information Institute calculations and research from ISO/PCI Fast Track data. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

Global Catastrophe Loss Developments and Trends
2011 Will Rewrite Catastrophe Loss and Insurance History But Will Losses Turn the Market? 52 52

Global Catastrophe Loss Summary: 2011
2011 Was the Highest Loss Year on Record for Economic Losses Globally Extraordinary accumulation of severe natural catastrophe: Earthquakes, tsunami, floods and tornadoes are the primary causes of loss $380 Billion in Economic Losses Globally (New Record) New record, exceeding the previous record of $270B in 2005 $105 Billion in Insured Losses Globally 2011 losses were 2.5 times 2010 insured losses of $42B Second only to 2005 on an inflation adjusted basis (new record on a unadjusted basis) Over 5 times the 30-year average of $19B $72.8 Billion in Economic Losses in the US Represents a 129% increase over the $11.8 billion amount through the first half of 2010 $35.9 Billion in Insured Losses in the US Arising from 171 CAT Events Fifth highest year on record Represents 51% increase over the $23.8 billion total in 2010 Source: Munich Re; Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

Natural Loss Events, 2011 World Map
Winter Storm Joachim France, Switzerland, Germany, 15–17 Dec. Flash floods, floods Italy, France, Spain 4–9 Nov. Wildfires Canada, 14–22 May Severe storms, tornadoes USA, 20–27 May Earthquake Turkey 23 Oct. Hurricane Irene USA, Caribbean 22 Aug.–2 Sept. Earthquake, tsunami Japan, 11 March Floods USA, April–May Drought USA, Oct. 2010– ongoing Severe storms, tornadoes USA, 22–28 April Tropical Storm Washi Philippines, 16–18 Dec. Wildfires USA, April/Sept. Floods Pakistan Aug.–Sept. Cyclone Yasi Australia, 2–7 Feb. Floods, landslides Guatemala, El Salvador 11–19 Oct. Floods Thailand Aug.–Nov. Floods, flash floods Australia, Dec. 2010–Jan. 2011 Landslides, flash floods Brazil, 12/16 Jan. Earthquake New Zealand, 22 Feb. Number of Events: 820 Drought Somalia Oct. 2010–Sept. 2011 Earthquake New Zealand, 13 June Natural catastrophes Geophysical events (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Hydrological events (flood, mass movement) Selection of significant loss events (see table) Meteorological events (storm) Climatological events (extreme temperature, drought, wildfire) Source: MR NatCatSERVICE 54

Top 16 Most Costly World Insurance Losses, 1970-2011**
5 of the top 14 most expensive catastrophes in world history have occurred within the past 2 years (Insured Losses, 2011 Dollars, $ Billions) Taken as a single event, the Spring 2011 tornado and thunderstorm season would likely become the 5th costliest event in global insurance history *Average of range estimates of $35B - $40B as of 1/4/12; Privately insured losses only. **Figures do not include federally insured flood losses. Sources: Swiss Re sigma 1/2011; Munich Re; Insurance Information Institute research. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

U.S. Insured Catastrophe Loss Update
2011 Was One of the Most Expensive Years on Record 63

Top 14 Most Costly Disasters in U.S. History
(Insured Losses, 2011 Dollars, $ Billions) Taken as a single event, the Spring 2011 tornado and storm season are is the 4th costliest event in US insurance history Hurricane Irene became the 11th most expense hurricane in US history *Losses will actually be broken down into several “events” as determined by PCS. Includes losses for the period April 1 – June 30. Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

There were 117 natural disaster events in 2011
Natural Disasters in the United States, 1980 – 2011 Number of Events (Annual Totals 1980 – 2011) There were 117 natural disaster events in 2011 Number 37 8 51 2 Geophysical (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Meteorological (storm) Climatological (temperature extremes, drought, wildfire) Hydrological (flood, mass movement) Source: MR NatCatSERVICE 65

(Overall and Insured Losses)
Losses Due to Natural Disasters in the US, 1980–2011 (Overall & Insured Losses) (Overall and Insured Losses) (2011 Dollars, $ Billions) 2011 was the 5th most expensive year on record for insured catastrophe losses in the US. Approximately 50% of the overall cost of catastrophes in the US was covered by insurance in 2011 2011 Overall Losses: $72.8 Bill Insured Losses: $35.9 Bill Overall losses (in 2011 values) Insured losses (in 2011 values) Source: MR NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Munich Re 66

US Insured Catastrophe Losses
($ Billions, 2011 Dollars) $100 Billion CAT Year is Coming Eventually Record Tornado Losses Caused 2011 CAT Losses to Surge US CAT Losses in 2011 Were the 5th Highest in US History on An Inflation Adjusted Basis *PCS estimate through Sept. 30, 2011. Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars.) Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute. 68 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 68

2011’s Most Expensive Catastrophes, Insured Losses
Includes $1.65B in AL, mostly in the Tuscaloosa and Birmingham areas Includes approximately $2B in losses for May 22 Joplin tornado **Includes $700 million in flood losses insured through the National Flood Insurance Program. Source: PCS except as noted by “*” which are sourced to Munich Re; Insurance Information Institute.

Combined Ratio Points Associated with Catastrophe Losses: 1960 – 2011*
Avg. CAT Loss Component of the Combined Ratio by Decade 1960s: s: s: s: s: s: 6.70* Combined Ratio Points The Catastrophe Loss Component of Private Insurer Losses Has Increased Sharply in Recent Decades *Insurance Information Institute estimates for 2010 and 2011 based on A.M. Best data. Notes: Private carrier losses only. Excludes loss adjustment expenses and reinsurance reinstatement premiums. Figures are adjusted for losses ultimately paid by foreign insurers and reinsurers. Source: ISO; Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

U.S. Thunderstorm Loss Trends, 1980 – 2011
Thunderstorm losses in 2011 totaled a record $25.8 billion Hurricanes get all the headlines, but thunderstorms are consistent producers of large scale loss are the most expensive years on record. Average thunderstorm losses are up more than 5 fold since the early 1980s Source: Property Claims Service, MR NatCatSERVICE 72

U.S. Winter Storm Loss Trends, 1980 – 2011
Insured winter storm losses in 2011 totaled $2.0 billion. Average winter storm losses have nearly doubled since the early 1980s Source: Property Claims Service, MR NatCatSERVICE 73

U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses by Cause of Loss, 2011 ($ Millions)
Wildfires, $855 Flood , $535, (1.5%) Other, $1,000 Geological Events, $50, (0.1%) Hurricanes & Tropical Storms, $5,510 Winter Storms, $2,017 Thunderstorm/ Tornado losses were 2.5 times above the 30-year average 2011’s insured loss distribution was unusual with tornado and thunderstorm accounting for the vast majority of loss Thunderstorms (Incl. Tornadoes , $25,813 . Source: ISO’s Property Claim Services Unit, Munich Re; Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

2011: Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide
Most of the Country East of the Rockies Suffered Severe Weather in 2011, Impacting Most Insurers 78

Number of Federal Disaster Declarations, 1953-2011*
There have been 2,049 federal disaster declarations since The average number of declarations per year is 34 from , though that few haven’t been recorded since 1995. The number of federal disaster declarations set a new record in 2011, with 99, shattering 2010’s record 81 declarations. The Number of Federal Disaster Declarations Is Rising and Set a New Record in 2011 *Through December 31, 2011. Source: Federal Emergency Management Administration: ; Insurance Information Institute.

Federal Disasters Declarations by State, 1953 – 2011: Highest 25 States*
Over the past nearly 60 years, Texas has had the highest number of Federal Disaster Declarations *Through Dec. 31, 2011. Source: FEMA: Insurance Information Institute.

Federal Disasters Declarations by State, 1953 – 2011: Lowest 25 States*
Over the past nearly 60 years, Wyoming, Utah and Rhode Island had the fewest number of Federal Disaster Declarations *Through Dec. 31. Includes Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. Source: FEMA: Insurance Information Institute.

SPRING 2011 TORNADO & SEVERE STORM OUTBREAK
2011 Losses Are Putting Pressure on US P/C Insurance and Reinsurance Markets 82

Number of Tornadoes and Related Deaths, 1990 – 2011
Tornadoes claimed more than 550 lives in 2011, the most since 1925 There were 1,884 tornadoes recorded in the US in 2011 Insurers Expect to Pay at Least $2 Billion Each for the April 2011 Tornadoes in Alabama and a Similar Amount for the May Storms in Joplin Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Storm Prediction Center, National Weather Service. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

Location of Tornadoes in the US, 2011
1,894 tornadoes killed 552 people in 2011, including at least 340 on April 26 mostly in the Tuscaloosa area, and 130 in Joplin on May 22 Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; 85

Insurers Making a Difference in Impacted Communities
Destroyed home in Tuscaloosa. Insurers will pay some 165,000 claims totaling $2 billion in the Tuscaloosa/ Birmingham areas alone. Presentation of a check to Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox to the Tuscaloosa Storm Recovery Fund Source: Insurance Information Institute 86

Location of Large Hail Reports in the US, 2011
There were 9,417 “Large Hail” reports in 2011, causing extensive damage to homes, businesses and vehicles Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; 87

Location of Wind Damage Reports in the US, 2011
There were 18,685 “Wind Damage” reports through Dec. 27, causing extensive damage to homes and, businesses Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; 88

Severe Weather Reports, 2011
There were 29,996 severe weather reports in 2011; including 1,894 tornadoes; 9,417 “Large Hail” reports and 18,685 high wind events Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; 89

New York’s Catastrophe Loss History: 2011
NY May Not Be a Gulf Coastal State, but It is No Stranger to Catastrophe 91

Severe Weather Reports in New York, January 1—December 31, 2011
There were 653 severe weather reports in NY in 2011 MN Total Reports = 653 Tornadoes = 17 (Red) Hail Reports = 197 (Green) Wind Reports = 439 (Blue) Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; 92

The BIG Question: When Will the Market Turn?
Are Catastrophes and Other Factors Pressuring Insurance Markets? 93 93

Criteria Necessary for a “Market Turn”: All Four Criteria Must Be Met
Status Comments Sustained Period of Large Underwriting Losses Early Stage, Inevitable Apart from 2011 CAT losses, overall p/c underwriting losses remain modest Combined ratios (ex-CATs) still in low 100s (vs at onset of last hard market) Prior-year reserve releases continue to reduce u/w losses, boost ROEs, though more modestly Material Decline in Surplus/ Capacity Entered 2011 At Record High; Since Fallen Surplus hit a record $565B as of 3/31/11 Fell by 4.6% through 9/30/11 (latest available) Little excess capacity remains in reinsurance markets Weak growth in demand for insurance is insufficient to absorb much excess capacity Tight Reinsurance Market Somewhat in Place Much of the global “excess capacity” was eroded by cats Higher prices in Asia/Pacific Modestly higher pricing for US risks Renewed Underwriting & Pricing Discipline Some Firming esp. in Property, WC Commercial lines pricing trends have turned from negative to flat or up in some lines (property, WC); Casualty is flat. Competition remains intense as many seek to maintain market share Sources: Barclays Capital; Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

1. UNDERWRITING Have Underwriting Losses Been Large Enough for Long Enough to Turn the Market? 96

P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001–2011:Q3*
Higher CAT Losses, Shrinking Reserve Releases, Toll of Soft Market Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases As Recently as 2001, Insurers Paid Out Nearly $1.16 for Every $1 in Earned Premiums Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net Losses Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases Avg. CAT Losses, More Reserve Releases Cyclical Deterioration Best Combined Ratio Since 1949 (87.6) Last January we estimated that the industry Combined Ratio would be 101.9 It actually was 99.3, helped by moderate CAT losses For 2010:Q1, still under 100, but… * Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=109.9 Sources: A.M. Best, ISO. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

Underwriting Gain (Loss) 1975–2011*
Underwriting losses in 2011 at $34.9 through Q3 will be largest since 2001 ($ Billions) Cumulative underwriting deficit from 1975 through 2010 is $455B Large Underwriting Losses Are NOT Sustainable in Current Investment Environment * Includes mortgage and financial guaranty insurers in all years Sources: A.M. Best, ISO; Insurance Information Institute.

Financial Strength & Underwriting
Cyclical Pattern is P-C Impairment History is Directly Tied to Underwriting, Reserving & Pricing 101

P/C Insurer Impairments, 1969–2011
3 small insurers in Missouri did encounter problems in 2011 following the May tornado in Joplin. They were absorbed by a larger insurer and all claims were paid. The Number of Impairments Varies Significantly Over the P/C Insurance Cycle, With Peaks Occurring Well into Hard Markets Source: A.M. Best Special Report “ Impairment Review,” January 23, 2012; Insurance Information Institute.

Reasons for US P/C Insurer Impairments, 1969–2010
Historically, Deficient Loss Reserves and Inadequate Pricing Are By Far the Leading Cause of P-C Insurer Impairments. Investment and Catastrophe Losses Play a Much Smaller Role Reinsurance Failure Sig. Change in Business Misc. Investment Problems (Overstatement of Assets) Deficient Loss Reserves/ Inadequate Pricing Affiliate Impairment Catastrophe Losses Alleged Fraud Rapid Growth Source: A.M. Best: Impairment Review, Special Report, April 2011. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

Performance by Segment: Personal & Commercial Lines
107 107

Homeowners Insurance Combined Ratio: 1990–2011P
Homeowners Line Could Deteriorate in 2011 Due to Large Cat Losses. Extreme Regional Variation Can Be Expected Due to Local Catastrophe Loss Activity Sources: A.M. Best ( ); Insurance Information Institute (2011P).

Private Passenger Auto Combined Ratio: 1993–2011P
Private Passenger Auto Accounts for 34% of Industry Premiums and Remains the Profit Juggernaut of the P/C Insurance Industry Sources: A.M. Best ( ); Insurance Information Institute (2011P).

Commercial Lines Combined Ratio, 1990-2012F
Commercial lines underwriting performance in 2011 was the worst since 2002 Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute

Workers Compensation Combined Ratio: 1994–2011P
Workers Comp Underwriting Results Are Deteriorating Markedly and the Worst They Have Been in a Decade Sources: A.M. Best ( ); Insurance Information Institute (2011P).

2. SURPLUS/CAPITAL/CAPACITY
Have Large Global Losses Reduced Capacity in the Industry, Setting the Stage for a Market Turn? 112

Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4–2011:Q3
($ Billions) 2007:Q3 Previous Surplus Peak Surplus as of 9/30/11 was down 4.6% below its all time record high of $564.7B set as of 3/31/11. Further declines are possible. The Industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.83 of NPW, close to the strongest claims-paying status in its history. Quarterly Surplus Changes Since 2011:Q1 Peak 11:Q2: -$5.6B (-1.0%) 11:Q3: -$26.1B (-4.6%) *Includes $22.5B of paid-in capital from a holding company parent for one insurer’s investment in a non-insurance business in early 2010. Sources: ISO, A.M .Best. 114 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 114

3. REINSURANCE MARKET CONDITIONS
Record Global Catastrophes Activity is Pressuring Pricing 121

Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index, 1990-2011 YTD (6/1/11)
A modest increase in global property catastrophe reinsurance pricing was evident in June 1 renewals in the wake of record global catastrophe losses. Jan. 1, 2012 renewals were up modestly or flat in the US but higher in CAT-impacted areas. Source: Guy Carpenter, GC Capital Ideas.com, September 26, 2011.

Historical Capital Levels of Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, 1998—2Q11
Most excess reinsurance capacity was removed from the market in 2011, but there does not appear to be a shortage, leading relatively flat 2012 reinsurance renewals except in areas hit hard by CATs. Source: Guy Carpenter, GC Capital Ideas.com, November 23, 2011.

4. RENEWED PRICING DISCIPLINE
Is There Evidence of a Broad and Sustained Shift in Pricing? 128

Soft Market Persisted in 2010 but Growth Returned: More in 2011?
(Percent) Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3-Year Decline Since 2011:Q3 growth was +3.1% The soft market seems to be continuing, at least for the start of 2010 NWP was up 0.9% in 2010 *2011 figure is through first 9 months vs. same period in 2010 Shaded areas denote “hard market” periods Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

P/C Net Premiums Written: % Change, Quarter vs. Year-Prior Quarter
Through 2011:Q3, growth in personal lines predominating cos. (+3.1%) and commercial lines predominating cos. (+3.9%), diversified (+2.3%) Finally! Back-to-back quarters of net written premium growth (vs. the same quarter, prior year) Sources: ISO, Insurance Information Institute. 130 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 130

Monthly Change* in Auto Insurance Prices, 1991–2011*
Cyclical peaks in PP Auto tend to occur approximately every 10 years (early 1990s, early 2000s and likely the early 2010s) Pricing peak occurred in 2010 “Hard” markets tend to occur during recessionary periods *Percentage change from same month in prior year; through October 2011; seasonally adjusted Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes. 131 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 131

Average Commercial Rate Change, All Lines, (1Q:2004–4Q:2011)
Pricing as of Q3:2011 was positive for the first time since Slightly stronger gains in Q4. (Percent) Q marked the 30th consecutive quarter of price declines KRW Effect Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (1Q04-4Q11); Insurance Information Institute 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

Change in Commercial Rate Renewals, by Account Size: 1999:Q4 to 2011:Q3
Percentage Change (%) Peak = 2001:Q % Pricing turned positive (+0.9%) in Q3:2011, the first increase in nearly 7 years (Q4:2003) Pricing Turned Negative in Early 2004 and Has Been Negative Ever Since KRW Effect: No Lasting Impact Trough = 2007:Q % Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers; Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

Change in Commercial Rate Renewals, by Line: 2011:Q4
Property lines are showing larger increases than casualty lines, with the exception of workers compensation Percentage Change (%) Major Commercial Lines Renewed Uniformly Upward in Q4:2011 for Only the Second Time Since 2003; Property Lines & Workers Comp Leading the Way Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers; Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

Direct Premiums Written: All P/C Lines Percent Change by State, 2005-2010
Top 25 States North Dakota is the growth juggernaut of the P/C insurance industry—too bad nobody lives there… Sources: SNL Financial LC.; Insurance Information Institute.

US Direct Premiums Written declined by 1.6% between 2005 and 2010
Direct Premiums Written: All P/C Lines Percent Change by State, Bottom 25 States US Direct Premiums Written declined by 1.6% between 2005 and 2010 States with the poorest performing economies also produced the most negative net change in premiums of the past 5 years Sources: SNL Financial LC; Insurance Information Institute.

INVESTMENTS: THE NEW REALITY
Investment Performance is a Key Driver of Profitability Does It Influence Underwriting or Cyclicality? 142

Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain: 1994–2011:Q31
($ Billions) Investment gains through Q3:2011 were $2.1B above the same period in 2010—a surprise given falling rates and flat stock markets Investment Gains through Q3:2011 Were Surprisingly Robust. Investment Gains Recovered Significantly in 2010 Due to Realized Investment Gains; The Financial Crisis Caused Investment Gains to Fall by 50% in 2008 1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses. * 2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B. Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.

P/C Insurer Net Realized Capital Gains/Losses, 1990-2011:3Q
$11.2B positive swing ($ Billions) Insurers Are Posting Net Realized Capital Gains in 2011 for the First Time Since Realized Capital Losses Were the Primary Cause of 2008/2009’s Large Drop in Profits and ROE Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute. 144 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 144

Treasury Yield Curves: Pre-Crisis (July 2007) vs. Dec. 2011
Treasury yield curve remains near its most depressed level in at least 45 years. Investment income is falling as a result. Fed is unlikely to hike rates until well into 2014. The Fed Is Actively Signaling that it Is Determined to Keep Rates Low Through 2013 and Possibly into 2014 Sources: Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve Bank; Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C
Reduction in Combined Ratio Necessary to Offset 1% Decline in Investment Yield to Maintain Constant ROE, by Line* This shows the drop in Combined Ratio for each line of business that would be needed to maintain a constant ROE, given a 1-percentage-point drop in investment yield Lower Investment Earnings Place a Greater Burden on Underwriting and Pricing Discipline *Based on 2008 Invested Assets and Earned Premiums **US domestic reinsurance only Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute. 148 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 148

Is it a Threat to Claim Cost Severities
Inflation Is it a Threat to Claim Cost Severities 155

Annual Inflation Rates, (CPI-U, %), 1990–2017F
Inflation peaked at 5.6% in August 2008 on high energy and commodity crisis. The recession and the collapse of the commodity bubble reduced inflationary pressures in 2009/10 Higher energy, commodity and food prices pushed up inflation in 2011, but not longer turn inflationary expectations. The slack in the U.S. economy suggests that inflationary pressures should remain subdued for an extended period of times. Energy, health care and commodity prices, plus U.S. debt burden, remain longer-run concerns Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 10/11 and 1/12 (forecasts). 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

Growth Would Also Help Absorb Excess Capital
The Strength of the Economy Will Influence P/C Insurer Growth Opportunities Growth Would Also Help Absorb Excess Capital 167

The Q4:2008 decline was the steepest since the Q1:1982 drop of 6.8%
US Real GDP Growth* The Q4:2008 decline was the steepest since the Q1:1982 drop of 6.8% Real GDP Growth (%) Recession began in Dec Economic toll of credit crunch, housing slump, labor market contraction has been severe but modest recovery is underway 2011 got off to a sluggish start, but growth is expected to proceed at a modest pace in Demand for Insurance Continues To Be Impacted by Sluggish Economic Conditions, but the Benefits of Even Slow Growth Will Compound and Gradually Benefit the Economy Broadly * Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 1/12; Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

New Private Housing Starts, 1990-2022F
New home starts plunged 72% from ; A net annual decline of 1.49 million units, lowest since records began in 1959 (Millions of Units) Job growth, improved credit market conditions and demographics will eventually boost home construction The plunge and lack of recovery in homebuilding and in construction in general is holding back payroll exposure growth Little Exposure Growth Likely for Homeowners Insurers Until at least Also Affects Commercial Insurers with Construction Risk Exposure, Surety Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (10/11 and 1/12); Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

Auto/Light Truck Sales, 1999-2022F
New auto/light truck sales fell to the lowest level since the late 1960s. Forecast for is still far below average of 17 million units, but a recovery is underway. (Millions of Units) Job growth and improved credit market conditions will boost auto sales in 2012 and beyond Car/Light Truck Sales Will Continue to Recover from the 2009 Low Point, Bolstering the Auto Insurer Growth and the Manufacturing Sector. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (10/11 and 1/12); Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

March 2001-November 2001 recession December 2007- June 2009 Recession
Recovery in Capacity Utilization is a Positive Sign for Commercial Exposures Percent of Industrial Capacity “Full Capacity” The US operated at 77.8% of industrial capacity in Nov. 2011, above the June 2009 low of 68.3% and a post-crisis high Hurricane Katrina The closer the economy is to operating at “full capacity,” the greater the inflationary pressure March 2001-November 2001 recession December June 2009 Recession 172 Source: Federal Reserve Board statistical releases at 172

Dollar Value* of Manufacturers’ Shipments Monthly, Jan 1992-Nov 2011
$ Millions The value of Manufacturing Shipments in Nov is up 27.8% to $455B from its May 2009 trough. Nov. figure is only 6.2% below its previous record high. Monthly shipments are nearly back to peak (in July 2008, 6 months into the recession). Trough in May Growth from trough to November 2011 was 27.8% *seasonally adjusted Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, November 2011, Jan. 4, 2012 173 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 173

Business Bankruptcy Filings, 1980-2011:Q3
% Change Surrounding Recessions % % % % %* Number of business bankruptcies still growing Bankruptcy filings in 2010:Q1 were up 18% from 2009:Q1 Each bankruptcy costs commercial property, liability, WC, auto, life, health, pension, and other insurance exposures 2010 bankruptcies totaled 56,282, down 7.5% from 60,837 in 2009—which were up 40% from 2008 and the most since As of 2011:Q3 filings are down 15.4% from 2010:Q3. Significant Exposure Implications for All Commercial Lines as Business Bankruptcies Begin to Decline Sources: American Bankruptcy Institute at ; Insurance Information Institute 180 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 180

Private Sector Business Starts, 1993:Q2 – 2011:Q1*
(Thousands) 722,000 new business starts were recorded in 2010, up 3.6% from 697,000 in 2009, which was the slowest year for new business starts since Business starts remained weak in early 2011. Business Starts Were Down Nearly 20% in the Recession, Holding Back Most Types of Commercial Insurance Exposure * Data through March 31, 2011 are the latest available as of January 16, 2012; Seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 181 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 181

11 Industries for the Next 10 Years: Insurance Solutions Needed
Health Care Health Sciences Energy (Traditional) Many industries are poised for growth, but many insurers do not write in these economic segments Alternative Energy Agriculture Natural Resources Environmental Technology (incl. Biotechnology) Light Manufacturing Export-Oriented Industries Shipping (Rail, Marine, Trucking) 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

Labor Market Trends Massive Job Losses Sapped the Economy and Commercial/Personal Lines Exposure, But Trend is Improving 183

Unemployment and Underemployment Rates: Stubbornly High in 2011, But Falling
January 2000 through December 2011, Seasonally Adjusted (%) U-6 went from 8.0% in March 2007 to 17.5% in October 2009; Stood at 15.2% in Dec. 2011 Recession ended in November 2001 Unemployment kept rising for 19 more months Recession began in December 2007 Unemployment stood at 8.5% in December Unemployment peaked at 10.1% in October 2009, highest monthly rate since 1983. Peak rate in the last 30 years: 10.8% in November - December 1982 Dec 11 Stubbornly high unemployment and underemployment constrain overall economic growth, but the job market might finally be improving Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute. 184 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 184

212,000 private sector jobs were created in December
Monthly Change in Private Employment January 2008 through December 2011* (Thousands) 212,000 private sector jobs were created in December Monthly Losses in Dec. 08–Mar. 09 Were the Largest in the Post-WW II Period Private Employers Added million Jobs Since Jan After Having Shed 4.66 Million Jobs in 2009 and 3.81 Million in 2008 (State and Local Governments Have Shed Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Insurance Information Institute

Unemployment Rates by State, November 2011: Highest 25 States*
In November, 43 states and the District of Columbia reported over-the-month unemployment rate decreases, 3 had increases, and 4 had no change. *Provisional figures for November 2011, seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

Unemployment Rates By State, November 2011: Lowest 25 States*
In November, 43 states and the District of Columbia reported over-the-month unemployment rate decreases, 3 had increases, and 4 had no change. *Provisional figures for November 2011, seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

Payroll vs. Workers Comp Net Written Premiums, 1990-2011
Payroll Base* WC NWP $Billions $Billions 12/07-6/09 7/90-3/91 3/01-11/01 WC premium volume dropped two years before the recession began WC net premiums written were down $14B or 29.3% to $33.8B in 2010 after peaking at $47.8B in 2005 Resumption of payroll growth and rate increases suggests WC NWP will grow again in 2012 *Private employment; Shaded areas indicate recessions. Payroll and WC premiums for 2011 is I.I.I. estimate Sources: NBER (recessions); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis at ; NCCI; I.I.I. 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

www.iii.org Thank you for your time and your attention!
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