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Disaster epidemiology and risk assessment in SEE countries

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1 Disaster epidemiology and risk assessment in SEE countries
South East European (SEE) countries have history of devastating earthquakes, floods, landslides, drought, extreme temperature, wildfires and windstorms that have caused economic and human losses across the region. Often these disasters, which transcend borders, overwhelm the management capacity of a single country. Also, the level of preparedness and prevention varies from country to country, and regional cooperation does not exist to the extent necessary. Because of this high vulnerability, and the relatively small size of the countries in the SEE region, as well as the historical links between them, it will be more efficient and economically prudent for the region’s countries to cooperate in the areas of education and disaster preparedness and prevention. The presented data in this lecture refer to the selected countries from SEE region even thought regional analysis of disaster impact and risk assessment is made using the analysis for all 10 SEE countries. Elisaveta Stikova, Ronald LaPorte, Faina Linkov, David Piposzar, Stebbins Samuel

2 Learning objectives Main learning objective is to present disaster epidemiology data of the SEE countries To teach students how to use hazard analysis and vulnerabilities assessment for risk disaster analysis To explain how standard disaster indicators like number of events, number of deaths, umber of victims and economical lost can be used for disaster impact evaluation To explain the meaning of hazard risk management framework matrix as a practical tool for understanding disaster preparedness The main objectives of this lecture are to make review of assessed risks for selected SEE countries – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro (by alphabetical order) and their common vulnerabilities; to review existing capacities; and to identify needs, means of cooperation, education and training and investment priorities to promote preparedness and to upgrade emergency response capabilities.

3 Risk assessment and disaster management in SEE countries
Elisaveta Stikova Present position 1991-Present, Professor, University “Ss. Cyril and Methodius”, Medical faculty, Skopje, Macedonia (courses: Occupational Health, Public Health, Medical Ecology, Hygiene 1994 – Present, Director and Advisor, National Public Health Institute, Skopje, Macedonia 2009 – Fulbright Visiting Scholar, Pittsburg University, Graduate School of Public Health – New Educational Pathway for Global Public Heath Security Previous experience: Director, National Public Health Institute (Republic Institute for Health Protection), – Industrial physician, Chief of the Department for planning and organization, Institute for Occupational Health Other present relevant position: Present, UNDP National expert for chemicals and health 2008 – Present, Member of Editorial Board of EuroSurveillance Visiting Professor, Erasmus Mundus-Europubhealth Master Studies, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK and Krakow, Poland. Courses taught: Disaster Management and International Health (Environmental disasters). 2006 – NATO Partner Country Co-director, Advanced Study Institute, Science for Peace and Security Program, Project title: Strengthening Public Health Preparedness for Chemical, Biological and Radiological Agents Threats.

4 Risk assessment and disaster management in SEE countries
Co-Authors and collaborators: Ronald LaPorte, PhD, UPGSPH, Director, Disease Monitoring and Telecommunication, WHO Collaborating center Faina Linkov, PhD, Assistant Professor, Cancer Institute David Piposzar, MPH, UPGSPH, PPLI Co-director Stebbins Samuel, MD, MPH, UPCPHP Principal Investigator/Director, Center for Public Health Preparedness

5 Hazard and vulnerability analysis for risk assessment
Risk assessment – evaluation of natural and man made hazards Disaster risk – number of events per year or incidence of disaster Disaster ranking (disaster risk for each country) Disaster impact – relative vulnerability Number of events and trends, Number of deaths and victims (affected population) Economic lost

6 Distribution of different hazards and trends - Albania, 1974-2006
Flood 32% Industrial Accident 5% 6 Slides 5% Transport 5 5% Extreme 10% Number of events Accident 4 Temperature 10% Windstorm 3 10% 5% Epidemic 2 18% Albania is vulnerable to flood, earthquake, landslide, drought, extreme temperature, windstorm and high snowfall (including avalanche and epidemic). The country is highly vulnerable to earthquake, flood and landslide. During , floods accounted for the major share of disaster events (32 %), followed by earthquakes (18 %). There were two technological hazards reported during this period; one transport accident and one industrial accident, in 1991 and 2004 respectively. Incidence of hazard events in the country ( ) shows that there has been a steady increase in the number of events. Drought 1 Earthquake 8 3 8 3 8 3 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 - - - 4 9 4 9 - - - 4 - 9 4 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 Total number of natural hazards Poly. (Total number of natural hazards)

7 Hazard incidence and number of deaths due to each hazard-Albania, 1974-2006
Total number of death due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 140 6 120 5 100 4 Number of deaths 80 Number of events 3 60 2 40 20 1 8 3 8 3 8 3 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 - - - - - - - 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

8 Total number of hazards and affected population - Albania, 1974-2006
Total number of victims due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 3500 6 3000 5 2500 4 2000 Number of events) Number of victims (000’s) 3 1500 2 1000 1 500 8 3 8 3 8 3 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 - - - - - - - 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

9 Hazard incidence and number of victims due to each hazard-Albania, 1974-2006
Total victims Total events 3500 8 3000 7 6 2500 Extreme Technological Drought Earthquake Epidemic temperature Flood Landslide Windstorm (industrial + transport) 5 Number of victims (000’s) 2000 Number of events 4 1500 3 1000 2 500 1

10 Total number of hazards and affected population - Albania, 1974-2006
Total number of victims due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 3500 6 3000 5 2500 4 2000 Number of events Number of victims (000’s) 3 1500 2 1000 1 500 8 3 8 3 8 3 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 - - - - - - - 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

11 Hazard incidence and economic lost due to different hazard-Albania, 1974-2006
Total economic loss Total events Extreme Technological Drought Earthquake Epidemic temperature Flood Landslide Windstorm (industrial + transport) Economic loss (million USD) Number of events

12 Total number of hazards and economic losses - Albania,1974-2006
Total economic damages reported (2003 US$ million) Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 20 6 18 5 16 14 4 Economic loss (million USD) 12 Number of events 10 3 8 2 6 4 1 2 8 3 8 3 8 3 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 - - - - - - - 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

13 Distribution of different hazards and trends–Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), 1989-2006
Windstorm Drought 7 15% 15% 6 Number of events 5 Wildfire 4 Epidemic 8% 8% 3 2 1 Transport 15% 3 8 3 6 Accident 9 9 9 9 Available data for the period shows that flood- and drought-related hazards asansport accidents contribute the major share of hazards experienced Analyzing hazards through the time-series data shows that hazard incidents is showing an increasing trend in the country. 31% 1 1 2 2 - - - - 8% 9 4 9 4 8 9 9 9 9 9 Flood 1 1 1 2 Slides Total number of natural hazards Poly. (Total number of natural hazards)

14 Hazard incidence and number of deaths due to each hazard-BiH, 1989-2006
Total number of death due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 60 50 40 30 20 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Number of events Number of deaths

15 Hazard incidence and total number of victims due to each hazard-BiH, 1989-2006
Total victims Total events 5 4 3 2 1 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Number of victims (00’s) Drought Epidemic Flood Slide Transport Accident Wildfire Windstorm Number of events The number of victims recorded increased by more than double in , compared to , which indicates an increase in vulnerability.

16 Total number of hazards and affected population - BiH, 1989-2006
Total number of victims due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 3000 10 9 2500 8 7 2000 6 Number of victimes 1500 Number of events 5 4 1000 3 2 500 1 3 8 3 6 9 9 9 9 1 1 2 2 - - - - 9 4 9 4 8 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 2

17 Hazard incidence and economic lost due to different hazard-BiH, 1989-2006
Total economic loss Total events 5 4 3 2 1 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Drought Epidemic Flood Slide Transport Accident Wildfire Windstorm Number of events Economic loss (million USD)

18 Distribution of different hazards and trends - Bulgaria, 1974-2006
12 Drought Windstorm 10 Number of events 6% Earthquake 16% 8 13% Wildfire 6 6% Extreme 4 13% Temperature Transport 13% 2 Accident 3% 8 3 8 3 8 3 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Industrial 30% 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 - - - - - - - 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 Accident 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 Flood Total number of natural hazards Poly. (Total number of natural hazards)

19 Hazard incidence and number of deaths due to each hazard-Bulgaria, 1974-2006
Total deaths Total events 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Extreme Industrial Transport Drought Earthquake temperature Flood Accident Wildfire Windstorm Number of deaths Number of events

20 Hazard incidence and total number of victims due to each hazard-Bulgaria, 1974-2006
Total victims Total events 14000 12 12000 10 10000 8 Extreme Industrial Transport Drought Earthquake temperature Flood Accident Wildfire Windstorm 8000 Number of events Number of victims 6 6000 4 4000 Hazard incidence shows flood is more frequent in the country, while more deaths were caused by technological (transport accident) hazards. The number of victims per event is high for flood and windstorm, showing the severity of these events compared to other hazards. Bulgaria is more vulnerable to flood than to any other hazard. As the country has historic records of major earthquakes, there is a high probability of earthquake occurrence in the country 2 2000

21 Total number of hazards and affected population - Bulgaria, 1974-2006
Total number of victims due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 14000 12 12000 10 10000 8 Number of victims 8000 Number of events 6 6000 4 4000 2 2000 8 3 8 3 8 3 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 - - - - - - - 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

22 Total number of hazards and economic losses - Bulgaria, 1974-2006
Total economic damages reported (2003 US$ million) Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 500 12 450 10 400 350 8 Economic loss (million USD 2003) 300 Number of events 250 6 200 4 The reports show economic losses of USD 477 million due to flood and wind, with flood contributing the major share. The National Geophysical Data Center reports that the country has incurred a loss of USD 5 million due to earthquake during the last 33 years. This economic loss equals about 0.3 per cent of the country’s GDP (USD million). 150 100 2 50 8 3 8 3 8 3 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 - - - - - - - 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

23 Hazard incidence and economic lost due to different hazard-Bulgaria, 1974-2006
Total economic loss Total events 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Extreme Industrial Transport Drought Earthquake temperature Flood Accident Wildfire Windstorm Economic loss (million USD 2003) Number of events The reports show economic losses of USD 477 million due to flood and wind, with flood contributing the major share. The National Geophysical Data Center reports that the country has incurred a loss of USD 5 million due to earthquake during the last 33 years. This economic loss equals about 0.3 per cent of the country’s GDP (USD million).

24 Distribution of different hazards and trends - Croatia, 1989-2006
7 Windstorm Drought 6 Earthquake Number of events 5 7% 7% 7% 4 Wildfire Extreme 3 20% Temperature 13% 2 1 20% 26% Transport Accident Flood Total number of natural hazards Poly. (Total number of natural hazards)

25 Hazard incidence and number of deaths due to each hazard-Croatia, 1989-2006

26 Hazard incidence and total number of victims - Croatia, 1989-2006
Total victims Total events 1 2 3 4 5 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Number of victims Number of events Extreme Transport Drought Earthquake temperature Flood Accident Wildfire Windstorm

27 Total number of hazards and economic losses - Croatia,1989-2006
Total economic loss Total events 350 5 300 4 Economic loss (million USD) 250 3 200 Extreme Transport Drought Earthquake temperature Flood Accident Wildfire Windstorm Number of events 150 2 100 1 50

28 Distribution of different hazards and trends - Macedonia, 1989-2006
7 6 Number of events 5 4 Windstorm Drought 3 Epidemic Wildfire 2 6% 6% 6% Transport 6% Extreme 1 Temperature Accident 13% 3 8 3 6 9 9 9 9 19% 1 1 2 2 - - - - 9 4 9 4 8 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 2 Total number of natural hazards 44% Poly. (Total number of natural hazards) Flood

29 Hazard incidence and number of deaths due to each hazard-Macedonia, 1989-2006
Total deaths Total events 250 200 150 100 50 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Number of deaths Number of events Drought Epidemic Extreme temperature Flood Transport Accident Wildfire Windstorm

30 Total number of hazards and affected population - Macedonia, 1989-2006
Total number of victims due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 120000 8 7 100000 6 80000 5 Number of victims Number of events 60000 4 3 40000 2 20000 1 3 8 3 6 9 9 9 9 1 1 2 2 - - - - 9 4 9 4 8 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 2

31 Hazard incidence and total number of victims due to each hazard-Macedonia, 1989-2006
Total victims Total events 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 Number of victims Number of events Drought Epidemic Extreme temperature Flood Transport Accident Wildfire Windstorm

32 Hazard incidence and economic lost due to
Hazard incidence and economic lost due to different hazard-Macedonia, Total economic loss Total events 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Drought Epidemic Extreme temperature Flood Transport Accident Wildfire Windstorm Economic loss (million USD) Number of events

33 Total number of hazards and economic losses - Macedonia, 1989-2006
Total economic damages reported (2003 US$ million) Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 400 8 350 7 300 6 250 5 Economic loss (million USD) Number of events 200 4 150 3 100 2 50 1 3 8 3 6 9 9 9 9 1 1 2 2 - - - - 9 4 9 4 8 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 2 Data Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

34 Distribution of different hazards and trends – SiM*, 1989-2006
Windstorm 4% Earthquake 4% 12 Wildfire 4% Epidemic 10 8% Extreme Number of events 8 8% Temperature 6 Transport 26% Accident 4 2 Misc Accident 4% 34% 8% Flood Industrial Accident Total number of natural hazards *Serbia and Montenegro - SiM Poly. (Total number of natural hazards)

35 Hazard incidence and number of deaths due to each hazard-SiM, 1989-2006
Total number of death due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Number of deaths Number of events

36 Total number of hazards and affected population - SiM, 1989-2006
90000 14 80000 12 70000 10 60000 8 50000 Number of events 40000 6 30000 4 20000 2 10000 3 8 3 6 9 9 9 9 1 1 2 2 - - - - 9 4 9 4 8 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 2

37 Hazard incidence and total number of victims due to each hazard-SiM, 1989-2006
Total victims Total events 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Misc Earthquake Epidemic Extreme temperature Flood Transport Accident Transport Accident Wildfire Windstorm Number of victims Number of events

38 Distribution of nuclear power plants and research facilities in SEE countries

39 Country-wise hazard matrix
H a z a r d s Earth- quake Flood Land slides Drought Extreme Tempe- rature Windstorm Wildfire Epi- Demic Techno-logical Albania X Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Republic of Macedonia Serbia and Montenegro

40 Disaster Impact Ranking
Country Disaster ranking impact Cumulative rank Albania 10 5 9 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 6 Bulgaria 8 7 Croatia Republic of Macedonia 4 Moldova Romania 2 Serbia Montenegro Slovenia Turkey 1

41 Annual average incidence of major hazards
Average annual disaster incidence and major hazards and vulnerability of SEE countries Country Annual average incidence of major hazards Drought Earthquake Flood related Wind storm Techno- logy related Albania 0.12 0.09 0.24 0.06 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.17 X 0.28 Bulgaria 0.21 0.15 0.27 Croatia 0.22 Macedonia 0.11 Serbia and Montenegro 0.50 0.56 Source: Annual average incidence and death computed using EM-DAT, exposed population UNDP

42 Annual average of deaths due to all hazards
Average annual disaster incidence and major hazards and vulnerability of SEE countries Country Annual average of deaths due to all hazards Exposed population Drought Earthquake Floods Albania 7.82 NA 155,688 131,704 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3.72 71397 Bulgaria 6.64 325,406 275,537 Croatia 8.61 30,928 108,929 Macedonia 13.39 17,784 Serbia and Montenegro 10.00 321,934 Source: Annual average incidence and death computed using EM-DAT, exposed population UNDP

43 Country 1 2 3 4 5 Albania S N BiH Bulgaria Croatia Macedonia Country 1 2 3 4 5 Albania N S G BiH U Bulgaria Croatia Macedonia Emergency preparedness Emergency response planning Exercises Public awareness Communication & information management systems Technical emergency Response capacity Institutional capacity building Decentralized emergency management system Sommunity participation Legislative framework Training, education & knowledge sharing International sooperation Risk assessment Risk mitigation investments Warning and monitoring systems Hazard mapping and land-use planning Code refinement and enforcement Hazard-specific risk mitigation Catastrophe risk financing Ex-ante funding arrangements Catastrophe insurance pool Reserve funds Contigent capital facility Country 1 2 3 4 Albania N S BiH Bulgaria Croatia Macedonia Country 1 2 3 4 Albania N BiH Bulgaria Croatia U Macedonia G Good S Satisfactory N Needs improvement/not available U Under construction

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