1. Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC)
COPC Site Update November 14, 2007
Captain John G. Kusters, USN
Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center
7 Grace Hopper Ave
Monterey, CA
(831)

2. Outline Operational Models and Applications Information Assurance
Automation Initiatives
Computer Systems
Satellite Products
NPOESS
MILCON
Summary

3. Models and Applications
NOGAPS
Aerosol
Modeling
Mesoscale
Models
Ensemble
Ocean
Tropical Cyclone
Forecasts
Optimum Track
Ship Routing
Automated High
Seas / Wind Warnings
Ballistic Wind
Computations
Electro-Optical
Aircraft Routing
Ocean Acoustic
Forecasting
Long-Range
Planning
Ice Forecasts
Target Weapon
Systems
Visibility/Dust
Search and
Rescue
Replace w/wheel slide

4. Operational Models
World-class operational and information-assured models are critical to our Nation’s defense
At core of Fleet Numerical reachback/automation efforts
Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS)
Premier global model for maritime environment
Tailored for Navy/DOD missions
Drives Navy ocean models
Supports the Ensemble Forecast System (EFS)
Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)
Regional model for high-resolution support to Naval operations
Coupled with littoral ocean models
Re-locatable in minutes for on-demand operations support
Classification levels up to TS/SCI

5. Operational Models Improvement Process
Direct Feedback Connection with Fleet Users
Fleet Numerical provides enhanced model verification plots
Fleet users provide objective feedback
Model and/or post-processing adjustments
Rigorous but rapid Configuration Management process
Long-term model improvements based on Fleet needs
Continuous model improvement adds skill to the critical – 120 hour period (resource protection, sortie decisions)
Meets weekly
“Team Monterey” effort
Collocation with Naval Research Lab
Rapid and successful transition of R&D  Ops
Naval Postgraduate School Collaboration
Continuous Model Improvement Process

6. Model Upgrades Last 6 months
NOGAPS/NAVDAS/NAVDAS-AR
AVHRR cloud-track polar winds ( )
Tuning variational analysis scale factors ( ). Improved short term tropical forecast performance
NAVDAS-AR (4DVAR) running in NRL alpha utilizing CRTM and METOP AMSU radiances ( )
NAVDAS - CRTM installed under FNMOC CM
NOGAPS - Stopped reading AFWA snow fields and reverted to model snow due to overestimation ( ).
NAVDAS - Assimilating 3-hourly feature track wind files from UW CIMSS for Meteosat-9. It was previously 6-hourly (April)
NAVDAS - EUMETSAT Meteosat-9 replaced Meteosat-8 atmospheric motion vector (AMV) winds ( )
Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) – NOAA polar orbiting imagery for NAVDAS compliments MODIS from U of Wisconsin.
Background error horizontal correlation length scale reduction = Tuning of the variational analysis
SNOW data - Looking at using a combination of the AFWA snow depth and the NIC snow coverage products. AFWA made correction to their snow analysis product, but model snow still being used.
Acronyms
Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) - CRTM developed at the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA). MetOp is a series of polar orbiting meteorological satellites operated by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites.
Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSU-A) – sensor on NOAA polar orbiting satellites.
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) – sensor on NASA Earth Orbiting Satellites.
METOSAT-9 European Geostationary satellite.

7. Model Upgrades Last 6 months
COAMPS
All COAMPS areas converted from MVOI to NAVDAS-3DVAR
Running COAMPS areas operationally on IBM AIX to take load off of SGI systems ( )
COAMPS verification graphics package promoted to FNMOC OPS ( )
Significant COAMPS update to improve height bias, stratus prediction, and tropical cyclone intensity ( ). Surface fluxes were increased thus impacting NCOM during VS-07.
METOP-A ATOVS temperature retrievals assimilated by COAMPS/NAVDAS ( )
COAMPS-OS operational in the SCIF on AMS2 Origin 3800 hardware (200706)
COAMPS Europe resolution change from 81/27 to 54/18 km ( )
Completed COAMPS SWA dust source file updates and added capability for dust forecasts to WPAC area ( )
In addition to A2 FNMOC has IBM AIX systems acquired through High Performance Computing Modernization Office (HPCMO) Initiatives.
Navy Ocean Coastal Model (NCOM) during exercise Valiant Shield (VS- 2007)
MetOp is a series of polar orbiting meteorological satellites operated by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites.
Advanced Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) – provides temperature profiles of the atmosphere
NAVDAS-COAMPS ops areas as of 11/05/30: W_ATL, E_PAC, CENT_AM, N_IND, SWA, EUR, WPAC

8. NAVDAS-AR Navy Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System –Accelerated Representer
4D-VAR data assimilation system
Basis for future fully interactive data assimilation/forecast system supporting adaptive observing
Computationally efficient Accelerated Representer numerical solution
The means by which NOGAPS and COAMPS assimilate data in the NPOESS era
NAVDAS-AR: Navy Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System .... advanced 4DVAR data assimilation algorithm NAVDAS-AR, where AR stands for accelerated representer

9. Model Upgrades Next 6 Months
NOGAPS/NAVDAS/NAVDAS-AR
Assimilate Korean AMDAR winds when quality improvements made (Q1FY08)
FNMOC Beta NAVDAS-AR (Q1FY08)
COSMIC/GPS data assimilation (Q2FY08)
Assimilate AIRS radiances (Q2FY08)
FNMOC Beta on new A2 Linux cluster (Q3FY08)
FNMOC Ops on new A2 Linux cluster (Q3FY08)
COAMPS
COAMPS-OS (NAVDAS, classified obs, RUC) (Q2FY08)
COAMPS-OS (coupled NCOM, WW3, SWAN) upgrade (Q3FY08)
COAMPS-OS merges with AMS COAMPS and becomes COAMPS on A2-0 (Q4FY08)
FNMOC Beta NAVDAS-AR planned to run on IBM AMS5
Acronyms
Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) – Korean Airline provided sensed data.
Constellation_Observing_System_for_Meteorology,_Ionosphere,_and_Climate (COSMIC) - GPS RO observations (bending angle and. refractivity giving temperature profiles of the atmosphere
Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSU-A) – Sensor aboard NOAA polar orbiting satellites
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) – Sensor aboard NASA Earth Orbiting polar satellites
Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) – type of opsrun, hourly data assimilation versus normal 6 hour data cuts.
Below COAMPS upgrades will use ESMF superstructure. NCOM is 3D coupled while WW3 and SWAN are 1D coupled (atmosphere > ocean)
Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), Wave Watch 3 (WW3), Simulating Wave Nearshore (SWAN).
NAVDAS-COAMPS ops areas as of 11/05/07: W_ATL, E_PAC, CENT_AM, N_IND, SWA, EUR, WPAC
COAMPS OS on A2-0 already “quasi-operational” for Monterey Bay 4 nest area (i.e. providing products to customers)

10. Information Assurance (IA) Environment
Booze-Allen-Hamilton contracted to facilitate transition of ODAA to Naval Network Warfare Command (NNWC)
ATO in progress including robust Cross Domain Solution
Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) Enhanced Compliance Review
Annual inspection to evaluate classified network (SIPR), unclassified network (NIPR) and traditional security posture
Over 99% IAVM compliant on evaluated items
High Performance Computing Modernization Officer (HPCMO) Technical and Administrative Reviews
Annual inspection to evaluate HPCMO HPC connections to the network
IAVulMan
operDesignatedApproval Auth.

11. Automation Initiatives
AOTSR
CAAPS
EVIS

12. Automated Optimum Track Ship Routing (AOTSR)
Ship routing has traditionally been a labor intensive process that requires forecasters to examine each ship route and corresponding model/forecast information
Significant aspects of maritime routing to optimize heavy weather avoidance can be automated
If 70% of oceans/skies are calm, those forecasts are automatically transmitted
As operating thresholds are approached, ship routes are flagged for forecaster review
Builds on progress automating high winds/seas warnings for the Pacific and Indian Ocean, which have increasing forecaster efficiency by as much as 90%
Existing resources are being leveraged to develop prototype of Automated OTSR that incorporates a fuel efficiency option
Ship Tracking and Routing System (STARS) automation and integration (Mr. Henry Chen)

13. Centralized Atmospheric Analysis and Prediction System
CAAPS
Centralized Atmospheric Analysis and Prediction System
CAAPS is a relocatable, higher-resolution modeling application of COAMPS
User configurable areas and model resolutions
Linux cluster based
Rapid area implementation permits repositioning in real-time (20 min) to support critical Naval operations
Incorporates a Vapor-Liquid-Solid (VLS) Track Dispersion Model for WMD plume forecasts
Multiple CAAPS areas currently running to support classified Naval and Joint operations
CAAPS can provide on-demand support for a transiting Strike Group within 20 minutes

14. Environmental Visualization (EVIS)
Automates the manual process of generating impacts graphics (stoplight charts)
Ties mission critical impacts to highest resolution models available (COAMPS/CAAPS)
Thresholds custom based (XML) or tied to reference pubs (RP-1, IWEDA, JTS)
Tailors impacts to mission area, geographic area, or theater requirements
Allows for forecaster modification of results or threshold inputs

15. HPC Systems Primary Oceanographic Prediction System (POPS)
Principal operational platforms
Run models and applications at the UNCLAS, SECRET and TS/SCI Levels
Analysis and Modeling Subsystem (AMS) – Models
Applications Transactions and Observations Subsystem (ATOS) - SOA
A2 (AMS + ATOS)
DoD High Performance Computing Modernization Program (HPCMP) funded Distributed Center System (DC3)
Remote Operations at the HPCMP Major Shared Resource Center (MSRC) located at NAVO
Hardened for crisis operations (power, physical security, cyber security)

16. HPC Portfolio NAME TYPE #CPUs MEMORY (GB) PEAK SPEED (TFLOPS) OS AMS2
SGI ORIGIN 3800
128
0.2
TRIX
AMS3
SGI ORIGIN 3900
256
0.7
AMS4
AMS5
IBM p655+
288
567
1.8
AIX
DC3
512
1.9
ATOS2
IBM 1350s/x440s/x345s
438
645
2.2
Linux
CAAPS
IBM e1350s
148
272
A2-0
Linux Networx Custom Supersystem
928
1800
10.0
A2-1
1168
1170
12.0
TOTAL
3794
6637
~30
Add row for classified systems in table (LINUX and TBD)
*Ranked in the top 5-10% of supercomputer sites worldwide in terms of overall computing power (~30 TFLOPS peak processing power; i.e., ~30 trillion calculations per second) The FNMOC Computer systems are also linked directly to ~150 TB of disk space and ~160 TB of tape archive space.

17. POPS2-U SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE
Unclassified
LAN
Unclassified ATOS2
Classified ATOS2
Classified
Near -
line
Storage
IBM
P655
288P
576GB
AIX
HPCMP
AMS5/
DC2/
AMS6
Origin
3900
256P
256GB
TRIX
AMS3
SDREN
SDREN Host
LNXI
228
NODES
1824GB
SUSE A2 -
146
2200GB
Origin
3900
256P
256GB
TRIX
AMS4
NIPRNET
HPCMP
AMS3
21 TB
Origin
3900
256P
256GB
TRIX
AMS3
Origin
3900
256P
256GB
TRIX
AMS4
DREN
DREN
DATMS
DATMS - - U U
INTEL LINK
INTEL LINK
SIPRNET
SIPRNET
COM SERVERS
COM SERVERS
COM SERVERS
COM SERVERS
APPLICATION SERVERS
APPLICATION SERVERS
Classified
APPLICATION SERVERS
APPLICATION SERVERS
Origin
3000
12P
TRIX
amsfs1
Single Level
Unclass
Class
CXFS
Filesystems
(15 TB) L8 L4 L0
LAN L8 L4 L0
CXFS
Filesystems
(15 TB)
CXFS
Filesystems
(15 TB)
Unclassified
LAN
Single Level
Fibre
Fibre
Fibre
Switch
Switch
Switch
Single Level
Unclassified ATOS2
Class
Unclass
Classified ATOS2
The Systems Architecture view is a description, including graphics, of systems and interconnections providing for, or supporting, warfighting functions.
Use this view to clearly depict security domains and show how the systems link and interoperate. Identify interconnections, key nodes, circuits, networks, warfighting platforms, etc.
Explicitly list connections to the Internet, NIPRNET, Defense Research and Engineering Network (DREN), SIPRNET, or Secret DREN (SDREN). If voice over IP is involved, show bridges or signal conversion equipment.
Explicitly list any foreign national access to the information system.
Origin
Origin
Origin
3000
3000
3000
12P
12P
12P
TRIX
TRIX
TRIX
amsfs2
amsfs1
amsfs2 - 1
MLS
SECRET
UNCLASSIFIED

18. POPS Architecture Strategy
Technology advances open the opportunity for combining AMS and ATOS functionality by utilizing specialized computing
Emergence of Linux based HPC
Convergence of server and HPC processors
Efficiency for reachback/on-demand modeling
Shared file system
Shared databases
Lower latency for on-demand model response
Long term cost efficiency of Linux vice proprietary operating systems
Cost savings by converging to a single operating system across FNMOC

19. Specialized Computing
Specialized computing which complements high-capacity systems by tuning hardware to applications will:
Enable transition to an easily scalable Linux environment
SE Linux to replace TRIX and Trusted Solaris
Aligned with NSA investments for an MLS solution
Triple peak speed from 7.33 to ~ TFLOPS
Triple memory from 2,645 to ~ 7,005 GB
Double number of CPUs from 2,026 to ~ 4,234
Combining this with a CAAPS or EVIS interface provides full capability that combines all layers of Battlespace On Demand:
Environmental data
Sensor/weapon performance
Commander/operator decision

20. A2 Computer Systems

21. A2 Hardware Specifications
A Linux Networx Custom Supersystem
232 nodes with 2 Intel Xeon 5100-Series “Woodcrest” dual-core processors per node (928 core processors total)
1.86 TB memory (8 GB per node)
10 TFLOPS peak speed
35 TB disk space with 2 GB per second throughput
Double Data Rate Infiniband interconnect at 20 Gb per second
40 Gb per second connection to external Cisco network
4 Clearspeed floating point accelerator cards
A Linux Networx Custom Supersystem
146 nodes with 2 Intel Xeon 5300-Series “Clovertown” quad-core processors per node (1168 core processors total)
1.17 TB memory (8 GB per node)
12 TFLOPS peak speed
40 TB disk space with 2 GB per second throughput
2 GRU floating point accelerator cards

22. Satellite Products

23. Satellite Focus Webpage (SatFocus)
Tools:
MET7 dust enhancement loops
SeaWIFS true color/dust enhancement
Feature tracked winds
MODIS dust enhancement
Products:
Low clouds over snow
Low clouds at night
Convective cloud top heights
Fire and smoke enhancement
Top Image: SeaWIFS True color
Bottom Image: MODIS
INSAT = Indian Satellite
SeaWIFS = Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor
MODIS = Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

24. Tropical Cyclone Webpage (TCWeb)
Satellite data fusion page
Multi-sensor images
Operational Unclassified / Classified web
Available to the public

25. Scatterometer Winds Need ASCAT from METOP via NESDIS ODAA
ERS and QuikScat Scatterometer, SSMI Wind and Rain, FNMOC Directional Ambiguity Removal
Need ASCAT from METOP via NESDIS ODAA
Central site for scatterometer data distribution to the Navy
Used for:
Assimilation into models
Near real-time displays for operational forecasters
Goal is to provide scatterometer winds to the models for initialization, and produce near-real-time displays for operational forecasters.
For model data assimilation, we have installed software to perform ambiguity removal using NOGAPS and COAMPS surface wind fields.

26. NPOESS Processing Architecture
FNMOC IDPS (Standard RDRs, TDRs, SDRs, EDRs)
FNMOC Satellite Processing System (Navy Unique EDRs)
Data Quality / Monitoring
Alternate Communications Interface (ACI) SAN
Assimilation into NOGAPS and COAMPS via NAVDAS-AR
METOC Portal/Web Services
Products to Users via the Global Information Grid (GIG)
NPOESS WAN
Access to NPP data is still TBD and designed. AFWA has offered.

27. NPOESS and NAVDAS-AR
Number of asynoptic observations will increase by a factor of ~10 in the NPOESS era (left panel below).
FNMOC is well-positioned to fully exploit this data via NAVDAS-AR because:
4D-VAR technique is inherently well-suited for getting the most out of asynoptic data
NAVDAS-AR processing scales with model grid resolution, but is relatively insensitive to the number of observations assimilated (right panel below).
Cross Point ~ 700,000 obs

28. MILCON
$7.3M project with groundbreaking planned for July 2007 and completion by June 2008
NPOESS IDPS - Additional Computer Room
SCIF improvements / enhancements
Watch Floor modernization
New Operational Briefing Area adjacent to Watch Floor
9400 sq. ft. - new construction
4800 sq. ft. - rehabilitation of existing spaces

29. Summary “Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety
Fleet Numerical is an operational command, with direct support relationships and connectivity to Fleet and Joint Forces
Fleet Numerical is continually improving its core Numerical Modeling Capability and provides the only DoD Information-Assured Global Atmospheric Model
“Team Monterey” is a unique partnership that focuses expertise to provide operational support like nowhere else
“Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety
And Information Superiority”

30. Questions?

31. FNMOC
BACKUPS

32. Tropical 200/850 Wind Mean RMSVE (day 3)
OCTOBER 2007

33. WPAC (Jan-Sep 2007)

34. NOGAPS TC Track Performance
Models Improvement
NOGAPS TC Track Performance
West Pacific
NOGAPS
GFDN
NCEP GFS
UK MET
JTWC Forecast
Consensus
2006
2007
2007 NOGAPS track error beats the NOGAPS 2006 at days 3-5. However, 2007 sample size much smaller (less statistical significance)