1. Climate Change and Livelihoods in Africa: Overview of Issues
David Kraybill, Professor
Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics
Ohio State University
Climate Change and Livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa Workshop
Center for African Studies, Ohio State University
May 15, 2009

2. Climate Change, Impact, Mitigation, Adaptation
Human/environ-ment interface
CLIMATE CHANGE
Exposure
Initial impacts
Vulnerabilities
Impacts
MITIGATION
of climate change
Autonomous adaptations
From Smit and Pilifosova, Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity
Net impacts
Planned
ADAPTATIONS
Policy responses
Adapted from Barry Smit and Olga Pilifosova, Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity

3. Themes in Climate Change
Climate analysis Mitigation Impact Adaptation

4. Theme 1: Climate analysis

5. Analyzing past trends
Arid and semi-arid areas are becoming drier in northern, western, eastern, and parts of southern Africa
Equatorial Africa and parts of southern Africa are becoming wetter
National meteorological services have improved in many African countries in recent years
Growing awareness of importance of meteorological information, especially for agriculture
Improved technologies of data gathering and forecasting
Historical meteorological data series are short, incomplete, and available for relatively few locations

6. Predicting the future Global Climate Models (GCMs)
Capture atmospheric-ocean interactions
Deficient in modeling El Nino-Southern Oscillation and land cover, which are particularly important in African climate
Needed: regional climate models for Africa that operate at finer spatial resolution than GCMs and that incorporate sub-grid processes such as land-use change and convection

7. Theme 2: Mitigation

8. Africa’s contribution to GHGs
At world level, Africa generates a small share of GHG emissions compared to high-income countries
Within Sub-Saharan Africa, sectoral shares of GHG emissions:
60% from land-use change and forestry
23% from energy
13% from agriculture
3% from waste
1% from industrial processes
Data comes from Bryan et al., Global Carbon Markets, IFPRI, 2008.

9. Mitigation through carbon trading
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of Kyoto Protocol favors industrial energy and power projects
Soil carbon sequestration and avoided- deforestation projects excluded from CDM
Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for only 1.4% of CDM projects
Africa’s has enormous potential for mitigation via agriculture and forestry
Data comes from Bryan et al., Global Carbon Markets, IFPRI, 2008.

10. The African Climate Solution
An African initiative on climate mitigation, adaptation, and improved rural livelihoods
Launched at 2008 meeting of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by 26 African countries
Emphasizes carbon sequestration through reforestation, afforestation, agro-forestry, and reduced tillage

11. Theme 3: Impact

12. Types of climate stimuli
Impact and adaptation studies generally focus on climatic averages of temperature and moisture
Often ignored, but very important:
Variability
Extremes
Averages typically fall within the coping range while extremes often fall outside

13. Impact sTUDIES in Africa BY SECTOR
Agriculture
Crop production
Livestock production
Food security
Forests
Water resources
Changes in runoff, river flow, and lake levels
Health
Vector-borne diseases: malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis

14. Assumptions in impact modeling
No adaptation – an assumption in early studies
Exogenous adaptation – many studies examine impact of climate change assuming given levels of adaptation
Endogenous adaptation – increasingly, researchers attempt to analyze impacts and adaptation using integrated models that include human and environmental feedback mechanisms

15. Theme 4: Adaptation

16. Definition of Adaptation
Adjustments of ecological, social, or economic systems in response to –
Actual climatic stimuli
Expected climatic changes
Includes changes in –
Practices
Processes
Structures
Aim is to –
Avoid or reduce potential damage from climate change, or
Capture benefits from climate change
Can occur at level of household, community, group, region, sector, country, groups of countries

17. Adaptive capacity
The ability of a system, region, or community to make livelihood-enhancing changes in response to climate change
Ability to cope with changes and uncertainties in averages, variability, and extremes of climatic variables
Increase in the “coping range”
Reduces vulnerability to adverse effects of climatic changes
Promotes sustainable development

18. Determinants of adaptive capacity
Economic resources
Private and public
Poverty is “rough indicator of the ability to cope”
Technology
Examples: warning systems, irrigation, crop breeding, flood control measures
Information and skills
Knowledge of hazards, ability to assess risks, ability to implement change
Infrastructure
Examples: roads, irrigation canals, dams, weather monitoring and forecasting systems

19. Determinants… Equity Grassroots participation in decision-making
Access to (not just availability of) resources is vital for adaptation
Grassroots participation in decision-making
Local contexts determining impacts and adaptation are heterogeneous and complex
Empowerment of households and communities
Institutions
Shift risk from individuals to public
Examples: land use policies, water management policies and organizations, insurance, agricultural research system, financial markets, mutual aid

20. Choices in Research design
Temporal scale
Short-run vs. long-run
Spatial scale
Local vs. national
National vs. regional
System level
Climatic
Ecological
Economic
Political
Social/cultural
Research methods
Modeling vs. less formal methods
Integration ?

21. Interlinked aspects of climate change
Mitigation
Impact
Human/Environment
Interface
Adaptation

22. Interlinked aspects of climate change
Mitigation
Impact
Human/Environment
Interface
Adaptation