1. Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in Washington
Part 1 Sea Level Rise
by Robert S. Cole
The Evergreen State College

2. Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in Washington (Part 1) Abstract
This case study is an introduction to the potential impacts of global climate change on some of the Tribal lands in Washington State. It explores specifically the impacts of sea level rise on Tribal lands in coastal regions, or in the Puget sound region. The case is based upon the scientific evidence for global climate change, and the measured sea level rise in Seattle over the past century. The case examines the effects of winter storm surges coupled with high tides, as well as the increased rate of sever winter storms and associated flooding in river and estuary regions. This case is designed as a ‘clicker case’ to be used in conjunction with interrupted lecture or interrupted workshop formats of presentation.

3. At a meeting of Tribal, federal, state, and academic people interested the impacts of global climate change on sea level rise in Washington state, several presenters showed some slides of likely scenarios. This case examines some of the issues that are of direct interest to anyone living along coastal regions, or along the shoreline of Puget Sound:
Impact of sea level rise;
Impact of winter storms on tidal levels;

4. CQ #1: Based on your current knowledge, which statement is closest to your thoughts about the scientific evidence for global climate change?
There is clear scientific evidence that humans are significantly affecting the Earth’s climate.
There is no scientific evidence that the climate of the earth is changing.
There is some evidence for climate change, but absolutely no evidence that human activities are affecting the change.
There is some evidence that humans are having an effect on climate. 4 4

5. CQ #2: Based on your current knowledge, which statement is closest to your thoughts about the consequences for humans of global climate change?
The effects of climate change, if any, will be small compared to natural changes that have occurred before.
The effects of climate change will be minor except in poor, less developed countries, or in remote regions.
Climate change will significantly affect many countries.
The effects of climate change will be catastrophic around the world. 5 5

6. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. … Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns.”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
All of these points led the world’s leading body on climate change, the IPCC, to conclude in 2001’s Third Assessment Report that….
The next report is due out in February 2007.
Rate of warming unusual
Hard to explain as natural (volcanoes, solar, ocean)
Warming of last 30 years consistent with basic physics, greenhouse gas changes

7. 2500+ expert scientific reviewers 800+ contributing authors
400+ lead authors from
130+ countries
6 years work
1 report

8. Changes in atmospheric composition
+35%
+142%
+18%
Changes in atmospheric composition
Human activities have increased the concentration of the major greenhouse gases
Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide now far exceed pre-industrial (~1750) values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years
From a longer-term perspective, these changes are enormous:
CO2: higher than any time in past ~20 million years
CH4: higher than any time in past 420,000+ years
There are many, many points of scientific consensus around the issue of climate change. This summarizes a few of the “big picture” issues.
Additional comments on global warming:
Carbon dioxide (C02) concentrations appear to be higher than any time in past ~23 million yrs. Approximately ~70% of CO2 emissions come from fossil fuel burning.
The current concentration of methane (CH4) has not been exceeded in at least 420,000 years. Slightly more than 50% of CH4 emissions originate from human activities.
The rate of warming in the 20th century is likely (66-90% chance) to have been the largest of any century in the last 1,000 years.
There is a growing similarity between the pattern of warming predicted by global climate models and what has been observed (one line of evidence supporting the fact that human activities are a major source of the current warming)
Another line of evidence of the human contribution to current warming: natural agents of climate change, namely volcanic eruptions and solar fluctuations, would have produced cooling over the past 50 years
CO2: higher than any time in past ~23 million years
CH4: higher than any time in past 420,000 (+) years
Indicators of the Human Influence on the Atmosphere during the Industrial Era
Concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases and their radiative forcing have continued to increase as a result of human activities.
Since 1750, carbon dioxide has increased by 31%, methane by 151% and nitrous oxide by 17%. Present concentrations of CO2 and methane are higher now than at any time during the last 420,000 years, the period for which there are reliable ice core data, and probably significantly longer. The current rate of CO2 increase is unprecedented during at least the past 20,000 years.
About 75% of the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere during the past 20 years is from fossil fuel burning, the remainder from deforestation and other land-use changes.
The greatest warming effect currently stems from CO2, followed by methane, halocarbons and nitrous oxide.
Cooling effects stem from the depletion of stratospheric ozone and generally from relatively short-lived aerosols. Ice cores in Greenland show the large increase in anthropogenic SO2 emissions during the Industrial Era (graph b).
IPCC 2007

9. Source: Climate Impacts Group – University of Washington
Long timescale changes
Source: Climate Impacts Group – University of Washington

10. Measured Sea Level Rise at Seattle
Hugh Shipman, Department of Ecology

11. CQ #3: Based on your understanding of the above slide, which statement do you think best characterizes the local consequences of climate change on sea level?
The trend in global temperature increase will have only a minimal increase in sea level, because the sea level rise in the last 100 years was only about six inches.
The trend in global temperature increase will have no effect locally.
The trend in global temperature increase may have noticeable consequences in the next 100 years for human settlements near sea level.
The trend in global temperature increase will lead to a sea level rise of 50 feet in the next 100 years.

12. The Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington predicts that:
There will be a rise in average temperature throughout the 21st century;
There will be sea level rise in the Puget Sound region throughout the 21st century;
There will be a significant alteration of the hydrological cycle in the Pacific Northwest throughout the 21st century;
All of this will have substantial impact on the salmon runs, timber production, hydroelectric energy production, agriculture, and land areas close to sea level.

13. Sea Level
Sea level rise (SLR) will increase the risk of flooding, erosion, and habitat loss along most of Washington’s 2,500 miles of coastline.
Global SLR: 7” – 23” by 2100
Medium estimates of 13” for Puget Sound by 2100
Higher estimates up to 4 feet in Puget sound cannot be ruled out at this time.

14. A sea level rise of one foot will have its greatest impact on the shore at high tide.
Olympia, Washington with blue color showing
areas that would be flooded at high tide with a
one foot rise in sea level.

15. Olympia: Sea Level Rise -- Time to sink or swim

16. Tides are the highest in the winter season in the northern hemisphere
Tides are the highest in the winter season in the northern hemisphere. This is because the Earth is closer to the sun in the northern hemisphere winter than it is in the northern hemisphere summer. The strength of the sun’s gravitational pull and the moon’s gravitational pull both affect the heights of the tides.
Each month of the year, the tidal range is greatest when the sun and moon align.

17. Each month of the year, the tidal range is greatest when the sun and moon align. Those times are called “spring tides,” although they have nothing to do with the season spring.

18. High tide plus major river runoff
The tides in Puget Sound can be raised even further by strong river water runoff from rain associated with winter storms.
Photo by Rob Cole
Photo by Rob Cole
High tide plus major river runoff
from winter storm
Highest tide of the year

19. High tide plus major river runoff
The tides in Puget Sound can be raised even further by strong river water runoff from rain associated with winter storms.
Photo by Rob Cole
Photo by Rob Cole
High tide plus major river runoff
from winter storm
Highest tide of the year

20. The effects of sea level rise will also be compounded by the effects of high waves associated with winter storms.
Image courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology

21. Winter storm surges of high waves
Whidbey Island February 4, 2006
Anacortes February, 2006
Source: Washington State’s Integrated Climate Response Strategy

22. CQ #4: Based on your understanding of the above slides, which statement do you think best characterizes the local consequences of climate change on sea level?
Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about 6 feet in Puget Sound .
Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about 6 inches in Puget Sound.
The difference between high and low tide levels is greatest in the season we call spring.
Sea level rise is compounded by the effects of river water runoff and by high waves in storm surges.

23. Coastal Flooding Extreme high water levels will increase over time
Flood events of any given magnitude will become more frequent
Longer flood durations
Drainage of low-lying areas more difficult

24. Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology, and Washington State’s Integrated Climate Response Strategy (WADOT)

25. Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology

26. Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology

27. Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology

28. Tribal Lands with Inundation Threats
Hoh Reservation
Quileute Reservation

29. Makah Reservation Lummi Reservation

30. CQ #5: Based on your understanding of the above slides, which statement do you think best characterizes the potential consequences of sea level rise for some Tribal Reservations?
Sea level rise presents no threat to Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline, but tsunamis do present a threat.
Sea level rise presents only a minor threat to Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline.
Sea level rise presents a significant threat to Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline.
Sea level rise is not occurring quickly enough to pose a threat to Tribal lands for at least another 50 years.

31. Discussion
Given the slides that you’ve seen, spend a few minutes discussing the possible responses that federal, state, and local governments might take to work with Tribes to minimize the danger to them of sea level rise.
What might Tribes do to educate the rest of society about the threats of sea level rise to Tribal peoples and to others living in coastal regions?

32. Now Let’s See What Some Tribes are Doing In Response
2003: “The American Indian and Alaska Native Leadership Statement On Global Warming” 2006: Indigenous Peoples around the Pacific Rim produced the report: “ Climate Change and Pacific Rim Indigenous Nations.” 2008: “Native Peoples: The ‘Miners Canary’ of Climate Change”

33. 2009: “A Tribal White Paper on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation From the Intertribal Climate Change Working Group”
2010: “Northwest Tribes: Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change”
2010: “Swinomish Climate Change Initiative: Climate Adaptation Action Plan”
2010: “Tribal Recommendations for the Fiscal Year 2012 Department of Interior Climate Change Adaptation Initiative”

34. The Hoh Tribe has moved their sea level village to higher ground.
The Quileute Tribe has moved some buildings to higher ground, and is in the process of negotiating for land adjacent to its Reservation to move more of the Tribal buildings to higher ground.
The Swinomish Tribe has identified portions of its Reservation that are at high risk of inundation, and has produced a series of adaptation strategies.

35. The Skokomish Tribe is acquiring land adjacent to its Reservation, and moving some of their buildings to higher land.
The Tulalip Tribe is doing land use studies with an eye to mitigating the effects of climate change.
All of the other Tribes along the Pacific coast and in the Puget Sound region have formed climate change planning, adaptation and mitigation groups.

36. The following groups are just a few of the groups that have taken an active role in climate change action planning, and continue to be excellent resources regarding climate change adaptation:
The National Congress of American Indians
The Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission
The Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians
Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission
The National Tribal Environmental Council
Natural resources Law Center, University of Colorado
Law School

37. Questions to Consolidate Your Learning

38. CQ #1: Based on your current knowledge, which statement is closest to your thoughts about the scientific evidence for global climate change?
There is clear scientific evidence that humans are significantly affecting the Earth’s climate.
There is no scientific evidence that the climate of the earth is changing.
There is some evidence for climate change, but absolutely no evidence that human activities are affecting the change.
There is some evidence that humans are having an effect on climate. 38 38

39. CQ #2: Based on your current knowledge, which statement is closest to your thoughts about the consequences for humans of global climate change?
The effects of climate change, if any, will be small compared to natural changes that have occurred before.
The effects of climate change will be minor except in poor, less developed countries, or in remote regions.
Climate change will significantly affect many countries.
The effects of climate change will be catastrophic around the world. 39 39

40. CQ #3: Based on your understanding of the slides in this case, which statement do you think best characterizes the local consequences of climate change on sea level?
The trend in global temperature increase will have only a minimal increase in sea level, because the sea level rise in the last 100 years was only about six inches.
The trend in global temperature increase will have no effect locally.
The trend in global temperature increase may have noticeable consequences in the next 100 years for human settlements near sea level.
The trend in global temperature increase will lead to a sea level rise of 50 feet in the next 100 years.

41. CQ #4: Based on your understanding of the slides in this case, which statement do you think best characterizes the local consequences of climate change on sea level?
Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about 6 feet in Puget Sound .
Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about 6 inches in Puget Sound.
The difference between high and low tide levels is greatest in the season we call spring.
Sea level rise is compounded by the effects of river water runoff and by high waves in storm surges.

42. CQ #5: Based on your understanding of the slides in this case, which statement do you think best characterizes the potential consequences of sea level rise for some Tribal Reservations?
Sea level rise presents no threat to Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline, but tsunamis do present a threat.
Sea level rise presents only a minor threat to Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline.
Sea level rise presents a significant threat to Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline.
Sea level rise is not occurring quickly enough to pose a threat to Tribal lands for at least another 50 years.

43. References
Boyd 2010, Washington State’s Integrated Climate Response Strategy, Nancy Boyd, Washington State Department of Transportation, December 2010, (accessed May 28, 2011)
DNR 2007, Tsunami Evacuation Brochures, Washington State Department of Natural Resources (DNR), 2007, (accessed May 22, 2011)
Hannah 2007, Native Communities and Climate Change: Protecting Tribal Resources as Part of
National Climate Policy, Jonathan M. Hannah, Natural Resources Law Center University of
Colorado Law School, 2007,
(Accessed Aug 20, 2011)
International Indian Treaty Council 2003, The American Indian and Alaska Native Leadership Statement on Global Warming, International Indian Treaty Council, 2003,
(accessed July 28, 2011)
IPCC 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 – Synthesis Report, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), (accessed May 22, 2011)

44. References (continued)
McNutt 2008, Native Peoples: The “Miners Canary” of Climate Change, Northwest Indian Applied
Research Institute, The Evergreen State College, 2008,
(accessed July 27, 2011)
McNutt 2010, Northwest Tribes: Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change, Northwest Indian Applied
Research Institute, The Evergreen State College, 2010,
(accessed July 27, 2011)
Mote 2008, Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Waters of Washington State, Philip Mote, Alexander Petersen,
Spencer Reeder, Hugh Shipman, and Lara Whitely Binder, University of Washington Climate Impacts
Group and the Washington Department of Ecology, January 2008,
(accessed May 28, 2011)
National Congress of American Indians 2010, Tribal Recommendations for the Fiscal Year 2010
Department of Interior Climate Change Adaptation Initiative, Nov. 2010,

45. References (continued)
ONR 2005, Office of Naval Research, Science & Technology Focus, website: (accessed May 28, 2011) Parker et. al. 2006, Climate Change and Pacific Rim Indigenous Nations, Alan Parker et. al., Northwest Indian Applied Research Institute, The Evergreen State College, 2006, (accessed July 27, 2011) Sharp et. al. 2009, A Tribal White Paper on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation From the Intertribal Climate Change Working Group, Fawn Sharp et. al., Intertribal Climate Change Working Group, August, 2009, (accessed July 28, 2011) Shipman 2009, The Response of the Salish Sea to Rising Sea Level: A Geomorphic Perspective, Hugh Shipman, Washington State Department of Ecology, (accessed May 28, 2011) Swinomish Indian Tribal Community 2010, Swinomish Climate Change Initiative website: Note in particular: Swinomish Climate Change Initiative Climate adaption Action Plan, October (accessed July 27, 2011)

46. References (continued)
Wildcat 2009, Red Alert: Save the Planet with Indigenous Knowledge, Daniel R. Wildcat, Fulcrum
Publishing, ISBN:
Unger 2011, Sea Level Rise and Ocean Acidification, Kurt Unger, Washington State Department of
Ecology, 2011, (personal communication)
United Nations 2008, United Nations Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, March 2008,
(Accessed Aug 20, 2011)

47. For Further Study
An excellent series of case studies that explores different aspects of global climate change and Tribal peoples can be found at the website of the Enduring Legacies Native Case Studies Project: