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Inferential Statistics and Probability a Holistic Approach

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Presentation on theme: "Inferential Statistics and Probability a Holistic Approach"— Presentation transcript:

1 Inferential Statistics and Probability a Holistic Approach
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Inferential Statistics and Probability a Holistic Approach Chapter 1 Displaying and Analyzing Data with Graphs This Course Material by Maurice Geraghty is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Conditions for use are shown here: © Maurice Geraghty 2008

2 Introduction Green Sheet – Homework 0 Projects Computer Lab – S44
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Introduction Green Sheet – Homework 0 Projects Computer Lab – S44 Minitab Website Tutor Lab - S43 (S41 for MPS) Drop in or assigned tutors – get form from lab. Group Tutoring Other Questions © Maurice Geraghty 2008

3 Descriptive Statistics
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Descriptive Statistics Organizing, summarizing and displaying data Graphs Charts Measure of Center Measures of Spread Measures of Relative Standing © Maurice Geraghty 2008

4 Problem Solving The Role of Probability Modeling Simulation
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Problem Solving The Role of Probability Modeling Simulation Verification © Maurice Geraghty 2008

5 Inferential Statistics
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Inferential Statistics Population – the set of all measurements of interest to the sample collector Sample – a subset of measurements selected from the population Inference – A conclusion about the population based on the sample Reliability – Measure the strength of the Inference © Maurice Geraghty 2008

6 Raw Data – Apple Monthly Adjusted Stock Price: 12/1999 to 12/2016
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Raw Data – Apple Monthly Adjusted Stock Price: 12/1999 to 12/2016 © Maurice Geraghty 2008

7 Apple – Adjusted Stock Price 17 Years
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Apple – Adjusted Stock Price 17 Years © Maurice Geraghty 2008

8 Crime Rate In the last 18 years, has violent crime: Increased?
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Crime Rate In the last 18 years, has violent crime: Increased? Stayed about the Same? Decreased? © Maurice Geraghty 2008

9 Perception – Gallup Poll
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Perception – Gallup Poll © Maurice Geraghty 2008

10 Reality - Reported Violent Crime Rate (Source: US Justice Department)
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Reality - Reported Violent Crime Rate (Source: US Justice Department) © Maurice Geraghty 2008

11 Line Graph - Crime and Lead
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Line Graph - Crime and Lead © Maurice Geraghty 2008

12 Pie Chart - What do you think of your College roommate?
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Pie Chart - What do you think of your College roommate? © Maurice Geraghty 2008

13 Bar Chart - Health Care Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides
© Maurice Geraghty 2008

14 Distorting the truth with Statistics
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Distorting the truth with Statistics © Maurice Geraghty 2008

15 Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Nuclear, Oil and Coal Energy Deaths per terawatt-hour produced source: thebigfuture.com © Maurice Geraghty 2008

16 Should Police wear Body Cameras?
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Should Police wear Body Cameras? © Maurice Geraghty 2008

17 Increase in Debt since 1999 Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides
© Maurice Geraghty 2008

18 Most Popular Websites for College Students in 2007
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Most Popular Websites for College Students in 2007 © Maurice Geraghty 2008

19 Decline of MySpace Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides
© Maurice Geraghty 2008

20 Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides © Maurice Geraghty 2008

21 Types of Data Qualitative Quantitative Non-numeric Always categorical
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Types of Data Qualitative Non-numeric Always categorical Quantitative Numeric Categorical numbers are actually qualitative Continuous or discrete © Maurice Geraghty 2008

22 Types of Data

23 Levels of Data Measurement
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Levels of Data Measurement Nominal: Names or labels only Example: What city do you live in? Ordinal: Data can be ranked, but no quantifiable difference. Example: Ratings Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor Interval: Data can be ranked with quantifiable differences, but no true zero. Example: Temperature Ratio: Data can be ranked with quantifiable differences and there is a true zero. Example: Age © Maurice Geraghty 2008

24 Levels of Data Measurement

25 Examples of Data Distance from De Anza College
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Examples of Data Distance from De Anza College Number of Grandparents still alive Eye Color Amount you spend on food each week. Number of Facebook “Friends” Zip Code City you live in. Year of Birth How to prepare Steak? (rare, medium, well-done) Do you drive to De Anza? © Maurice Geraghty 2008

26 Data Collection Personal – individual interviews
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Data Collection Personal – individual interviews Phone – voice and automated Impersonal Survey – Internet or Mail Direct Observation – measurements Scientific Studies – control for lurking variables Observational Studies – difficult to establish a cause and effect relationship. © Maurice Geraghty 2008

27 Sampling Random Sampling Systematic Sampling Stratified Sampling
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Sampling Random Sampling Each member of the population has the same chance of being sampled. Systematic Sampling The sample is selected by taking every kth member of the population. Stratified Sampling The population is broken into more homogenous subgroups (strata) and a random sample is taken from each strata. Cluster Sampling Divide population into smaller clusters, randomly select some clusters and sample each member of the selected clusters. Convenience Sampling Self selected and non-scientific methods which are prone to extreme bias. © Maurice Geraghty 2008

28 Graphical Methods Stem and Leaf Chart Grouped data Pie Chart Histogram
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Graphical Methods Stem and Leaf Chart Grouped data Pie Chart Histogram Ogive Grouping data Example © Maurice Geraghty 2008

29 Graphing Categorical Data
A sample of 500 adults (age 18 and over) from Santa Clara County, California were taken from the year 2000 United States Census.

30 Graphing Categorical Data
n = sample size - The number of observations in your sample size. Frequency - the number of times a particular value is observed. Relative frequency - The proportion or percentage of times a particular value is observed. Relative Frequency = Frequency / n

31 Graphing Categorical Data
A sample of 500 adults (age 18 and over) from Santa Clara County, California were taken from the year 2000 United States Census.

32 Bar Graph of Categorical Data

33 Daily Minutes spent on the Internet by 30 students
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Daily Minutes spent on the Internet by 30 students 102 71 103 105 109 124 104 116 97 99 108 112 85 107 86 118 122 67 87 78 101 82 95 100 125 92 © Maurice Geraghty 2008

34 Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Stem and Leaf Graph 6 7 7 18 11 268 12 245 © Maurice Geraghty 2008

35 Back-to-back Example Passenger loading times for two airlines
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Back-to-back Example Passenger loading times for two airlines 11, 14, 16, 17, 19, 21, 22, 23, 24, 24, 24, 26, 31, 32, 38, 39 8, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16, 16, 18, 19, 19, 21, 21, 22, 24, 26, 31 © Maurice Geraghty 2008

36 Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Back to Back Example 8 1 4 1 1 3 4 6 7 9 2 6 1 2 3 8 9 © Maurice Geraghty 2008

37 Grouping Data Choose the number of groups between 5 and 10 is best
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Grouping Data Choose the number of groups between 5 and 10 is best Interval Width = (Range+1)/(Number of Groups) Round up to a convenient value Start with lowest value and create the groups. Example – for 5 categories Interval Width = (58+1)/5 = 12 (rounded up) © Maurice Geraghty 2008

38 Grouping Data Class Interval Frequency Relative Cumulative 66.5-78.5 3
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Grouping Data Class Interval Frequency Relative Cumulative 3 .100 5 .167 .267 8 .266 .533 9 .300 .833 1.000 Total 30 © Maurice Geraghty 2008

39 Histogram – Graph of Frequency or Relative Frequency
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Histogram – Graph of Frequency or Relative Frequency © Maurice Geraghty 2008

40 Dot Plot – Graph of Frequency
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Dot Plot – Graph of Frequency © Maurice Geraghty 2008

41 Ogive – Graph of Cumulative Relative Frequency
Math 10 - Chapter 1 & 2 Slides Ogive – Graph of Cumulative Relative Frequency © Maurice Geraghty 2008


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