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Input-Output Modelling UNSD SEEA Training of Trainers Seminar

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1 Input-Output Modelling UNSD SEEA Training of Trainers Seminar
SEEA Extensions: Input-Output Modelling UNSD SEEA Training of Trainers Seminar 7-10 July 2015, Santiago Joe St. Lawrence Statistics Canada

2 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
SNA framework Sectors Wastes Commodities Industries Final demand Assets Industrial output of goods and services Industrial intermediate demand Gross fixed capital formation Financial and produced assets, opening balance Other changes in volume & holding gains/losses on financial & produced assets Financial and produced assets, closing balance Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

3 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
SEEA framework Sectors Wastes Commodities Industries Final demand Assets Industrial output of goods and services Industrial intermediate demand Environmental protection expenditures Gross fixed capital formation Capital expenditures for environmental protection Financial and produced assets, opening balance Natural resource assets, opening balance Changes in natural resource assets Natural resource assets, closing balance Other changes in volume & holding gains/losses on financial & produced assets Changes in and holding gains/losses on natural resource assets Financial and produced assets, closing balance Resource production by industries Resource use by industries Resource production by households/gov’t Resource use by households/gov’t Waste consumption by industries Waste output by industries Waste output by households/gov’t Waste consumption by households/gov’t Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

4 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Flow Accounting United Nations, 2012, System of Environmental-Economic Accounting: Central Framework (white cover draft), New York. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

5 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Flow Accounting United Nations, 2012, System of Environmental-Economic Accounting: Central Framework (white cover draft), New York. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

6 Monetary Input-Output tables
473 235 U 473 280 F 473 1 q 235 473 V 235 1 g 473 1 q Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

7 Numerical example (U: Use)
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

8 Numerical example (V: Make)
USE (U) farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services cattle 10 80 iron ore 100 milk 5 cheese fuel 200 50 steel 145 parts advertising 15 20 40 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

9 Numerical example (F: final demand)
USE (U) farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services cattle 10 80 iron ore 100 milk 5 cheese fuel 200 50 steel 145 parts advertising 15 20 40 MAKE (V) cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel parts advertising farms 100 10 mines 1000 food manuf. 80 200 other manuf. 150 services Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

10 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Numerical example (g: gross industry output / q: gross commodity output) USE (U) farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services cattle 10 80 iron ore 100 milk 5 cheese fuel 200 50 steel 145 parts advertising 15 20 40 Final Demand 60 200 600 165 MAKE (V) cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel parts advertising farms 100 10 mines 1000 food manuf. 80 200 other manuf. 150 services Σ Σ Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

11 Numerical example (overview)
USE (U) farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services cattle 10 80 iron ore 100 milk 5 cheese fuel 200 50 steel 145 parts advertising 15 20 40 Final Demand 60 200 600 165 MAKE (V) cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel parts advertising farms 100 10 mines 1000 food manuf. 80 200 other manuf. 150 services g 210 1100 280 360 100 Σ Σ q 100 180 210 1010 150 200 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

12 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
The IO model Basic identity: supply = demand q + inv- + m = u + fd + x + inv+ By substituting for market share (D=V/q) and technology (B=U/g), we get: g = (I - DB)-1De Allows an estimate of the gross production (g) required from each industry to satisfy a given final demand (e) based on pre-defined relationships of market-share (D) and technology (B) Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

13 Numerical example (B: Technology)
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

14 Numerical example (D: Market share)
B (U/g) farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services cattle 0.05 0.00 0.29 0.03 iron ore 0.28 milk 0.36 cheese fuel 0.48 0.18 0.04 0.14 0.50 steel 0.40 parts 0.02 0.01 0.10 advertising 0.07 0.11 0.20 Σ 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.97 0.9 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

15 Numerical example (The inverse)
Meaning: dollars of output from industry at row to deliver (to final demand) a dollar of output from industry at column Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

16 Numerical example (De)
= 60* * 0.05 Actually = 60* *0.0476 (display table is rounded) Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

17 Numerical example: (I-DB)-1De
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

18 Numerical example: (I-DB)-1De
farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services 1.11 0.01 0.65 0.08 0.12 0.74 1.26 0.59 1.13 1.01 0.04 1.22 0.03 0.13 0.14 1.80 0.27 0.07 0.16 1.32 De 42.86 594.06 217.14 170.94 0.00 g=(I-DB)ˉ¹De 210 1100 280 360 100 decompostion of row one of (I-DB)ˉ¹ times column one of De (Row 1 of (I-DB)ˉ¹ times column of De) 1.11 * ($1.11 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from farms, so to get of final demand we need farms to produce 47.5 dollars of output) Plus: 0.01 * ($0.01 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from mines, so to get of final demand we need farms to produce 7 dollars of output) Plus: 0.65 * ($0.65 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from food manufacturers, so to get of final demand we need farms to produce dollars of output) Plus: 0.08 * ($0.08 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from other manufacturers, so to get 170,94 of final demand we need farms to produce 14.3 dollars of output) Plus: 0.12 * 0 ($0.12 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from services, so to get 0.00 to final demand we need farms to produce 0 dollars of output) So, to deliver all of final demand, farms must produce 210 dollars of gross output Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

19 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Numerical example (I-DB)ˉ¹ farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services 1.11 0.01 0.65 0.08 0.12 0.74 1.26 0.59 1.13 1.01 0.04 1.22 0.03 0.13 0.14 1.80 0.27 0.07 0.16 1.32 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

20 Calculating output required for different categories of demand...
g = (I - DB)-1De Recall that this provides an estimate of the gross output (g) required from each industry to satisfy a given final demand (e) based on pre-defined relationships of market-share (D) and technology (B) So, if I wanted to calculate the gross output from each industry required to produce the demand related to household personal expenditure, I could calculate... gpe = (I - DB)-1Depe Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

21 Integration – getting the environment in there...
235 1 E 235 1 g 235 1 α = / Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

22 Sample results – attribution to demand
gpe = (I - DB)-1Depe 235 1 α 235 1 gpe = 1 Epe * Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

23 Demand-based perspectives
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

24 Sample results – direct and indirect intensities (multipliers)
235 1 α 235 (I - DB) -1 * = Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

25 Numerical example: Multipliers
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

26 Numerical example: Multipliers
this basically converts emissions per unit of output (direct intensity) to total emissions required to deliver a unit of final demand (direct plus indirect intensity) Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

27 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Questions? Joe St. Lawrence Statistics Canada | 170 Tunney's Pasture Driveway, Ottawa ON K1A 0T6 Statistique Canada | 170, promenade Tunney's Pasture, Ottawa ON K1A 0T6 Telephone | Téléphone Facsimile | Télécopieur Government of Canada | Gouvernement du Canada Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17/11/2018

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