1. Architecture Selection Logic
Solomon Westerman, PM
Week 7, 2/26/09
[Solomon Westerman] [PM] 1

2. [Solomon Westerman] [PM] 2
Complexity
Complexity drives cost and reliability!
Cost
Reliability
Launch
Mass in LEO
Purchase
Licenses
Components
Salary
Integration
R&D
Construction
Launch
Same model
TLI, LD, LOCO
Moving Parts
Failure Modes
Purchased or Built Components
$ Spent on R&D
Improve our reliability!
Balance total cost and system reliability to meet requirements for each payload mass
[Solomon Westerman] [PM] 2

3. Architecture Logic for GLXP size Payloads
Want to minimize mission cost (maximize profit)
Cost currently driving selection
Unless significant $ spend on R&D, mission reliability is unlikely to be > 90%
R&D cost + mission cost will likely be more than purse money for > 90% reliability
Even the most reliable GEO satellite buses have ~11% of fleet with insurance claims, most have ~25%
Therefore, we could plan for two launches
Allows us to invest less in R&D
90% reliability for two missions is equal to 69% reliability for one mission
Cross our fingers and hope the first mission works
If first mission works: we make good profit
If first mission fails: fix, build, and launch again to minimize loss
Second launch may not win full GLXP prize money due to time constraint
Locomotion reliability a HUGE driver
Working with slim margin if we don’t pour too much money into LD R&D
Combination of phase vehicles is very promising, even for small payloads
Need to look at model to see if we can get > 90% with one launch
Reduced complexity not only leads to lower cost, but increased reliability!
[Solomon Westerman] [PM] 3

4. Architecture Logic for Arbitrary (large) Payload
Want to minimize mission cost with acceptable reliability
Payload likely to be expensive, desire higher reliability than GLXP
Reliability requirement currently driving selection
Require 90% reliability for ONE mission!
R&D cost will be needed to satisfy reliability
Significant R&D cost must be put into TLI, LD, and LOCO
R&D cost can be reduced by launching with Soyuz FG (excellent reliability at ~1.7x higher launch cost)
Combination of phase vehicles increases reliability SIGNIFICANTLY
Integrated hopper/lander is almost required to maintain reliability requirement
Less costly mission
[Solomon Westerman] [PM] 4

5. Demo Excel Model