1. Polling
Polls try to measure voter attitude and/or forecast a potential winner in an election.

2. 87% say Bush is a bumbling moron
Should you take this statistic at face value? NO
What questions should come to mind?
Who was asked?
How many people were asked?
What question was asked?
How was it answered?
Were there data collecting errors?

3. The question was… I believe Bush is… A) a stud muffin.
B) a bumbling moron.
C) the best US President ever.

4. “88% of Seniors in high school look forward to coming to school.”
What were those questions again????
Who was asked?
How many people were asked?
What question was asked?
How was it answered?
Were there data collecting errors?

5. Do you like coming to school?
The question was asked to 100 honors students in the Ken-Ton School District.

6. “75% of people want to outlaw cell phones completely.”
What were those questions again????
Who was asked?
How many people were asked?
What question was asked?
How was it answered?
Were there data collecting errors?

7. Should cell phones be outlawed completely?
This question was asked to 20 people in rural Arkansas.

8. Straw Poll
a group of people questioned informally to determine public opinion.
Examples: mail survey, “person-on-the-street” interviews, telephone call-ins, etc.

9. Straw Polls
In the late 1800’s straw polls were first introduced by newspapers and magazines as a way to liven up their political coverage.
This type of poll does not give accurate data.

10. Scientific Poll
the determination of public opinion through precise sampling and statistical methods.
National Renowned Examples:
Gallup Poll
Harris Poll
Zogby Poll

12. The first step in scientific polling is to figure out the “universe”.
Universe: the population to be studied
If the universe is small, then you can survey everyone.
Example: Kenmore West Class of 2013
If the universe is bigger, then you must use a sample.
Example: All of the graduating seniors in Western New York.

13. “A cook does not have to drink an entire pot of soup to determine if it needs more seasoning; he merely takes a sip.”

14. Let’s get scientific!
Sample: a small group of people who accurately represent a universe.
Random Sample: a sample chosen in such a way that every member of the universe has an equal chance of being selected.
Nationwide poll samples: people

15. Reliable polls must…
The questions must be unbiased and easily understood.
Results must be accurate and documented correctly and include the following…
the method of survey
the type of sample
the number of people asked
When the survey was completed

16. What is the purpose of polling?
Measure candidate popularity.
To satisfy the needs of an official
Get voter opinions on issues that affect candidates.

17. Exit Polls
Predict winners of political races based on post-voting interviews.

20. 5 Basic Steps for Poll Making
1. Define the universe to be surveyed
(the whole population that the poll aims to measure)
2. Construct a sample
(how would you choose a sample)
3. Prepare Valid Questions – at least five
(ask objective questions, carefully worded, easy to understand)
4. Select and control how the poll will be taken
(face-to-face, telephone, and mail)
5. Analyze and report your findings to the public
(make a table or construct a chart to illustrate your results)