1. Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom A Community Profile
Presented by:
The Vermont State Data Center at
UVM’s Center for Rural Studies

2. About the Vermont State Data Center
The VT State Data Center is part of a national network of liaisons between the U.S. Census Bureau and local data users and producers.
The VT SDC
Conducts Data Trainings
Responds to Data Requests
Assists with Census Bureau Data Collection Programs
Participates in Data Advocacy & Network Development
Advocates for VT Data Needs at the Census Bureau
We can develop presentations about Census and associated data sets and tools for all levels of data users
We can tailor these to municipalities, NPOs, businesses, state agencies, etc.
Often these services are provided at no charge- for smaller requests, edu, outreach.
Larger data projects may require additional funding.
Federal support secured through Pat Leahy is going away and we are currently seeking support from the State of VT to maintain this valuable resource for VT data users.

3. Let’s Get to Know the Northeast Kingdom
Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom (NEK)- a name coined by former VT governor George Aiken in consists generally of Essex, Orleans and Caledonia counties.
Population centers include Derby/Newport on the Canadian border, Hardwick, and Lyndon/Saint Johnsbury to the South.
The NEK is home to about 64,500 residents, or about 10% of VT’s population.
The Northeast Kingdom also has about 7,200 firms (2012)- About 9.5% of VT’s total.

4. Current Population
The Northeast Kingdom Counties are among the least populous counties in Vermont.
NEK counties have relatively smaller populations among the VT Counties.
Essex County is particularly small as the least populous county in VT, with a population of about 6,200.
Orleans and Caledonia Counties also have relatively smaller populations with about 27k and 31k residents respectively.
But this indicator doesn’t tell the whole story.

5. Population Density
The NEK Counties are among the lowest density counties in VT.
Population density is a calculation that accounts for the actual size of a place so that we can truly understand the physical population dynamics at play.
The NEK Counties are very sparsely populated. Which is a major contributing factor to the challenges we are here to discuss.

6. Recent Population Change
The Kingdom Counties are experiencing population loss like much of the state. Essex’s population loss is particularly high relative to most other counties.
These challenges include population loss… But this may be a symptom of the challenges.
And we ask then, what factors are contributing to population decline in the NEK?

7. NEK Migration Snapshot 2011-2015
Caledonia County
Movers from a different state: 1,092
Movers to a different state: 659
Movers from a different county, same state: 1,080
Movers to a different county, same state: 705
Movers from abroad: 81
Essex County
Movers from a different state: 221
Movers to a different state: 218
Movers from a different county, same state: 147
Movers to a different county, same state: 266
Movers from abroad: 8
Orleans County
Movers from a different state: 612
Movers to a different state:453
Movers from a different county, same state: 551
Movers to a different county, same state: 627
Movers from abroad: 62

8. Labor Force Participation
The NEK Counties have the lowest Labor Force Participation rates in Vermont.
The 3 counties are among those with the lowest labor force participation rates in VT.
Slightly Lower rates than the U.S., VT rate.

9. Jobs
There has been an overall increase in the number of paid employees in the NEK, but this is not the complete story.
3% gain in Essex is 14 paid employees absolute… Only 484 paid employees in Essex County in year
Caledonia is 312 job losses,
Orleans added 511.
Total gain of around 200 jobs.

10. Unemployment
The NEK Counties have relatively high Unemployment. Especially Essex County.

11. Median HH Income
The NEK Counties have the lowest Median Household Incomes in Vermont.
NEK median household incomes are significantly lower than U.S., Vermont Counties.

12. Poverty The NEK Counties have the highest poverty rates in Vermont.
NEK Counties have some of the highest poverty rates in VT. These are close to U.S. averages, but higher in two counties than U.S. avg.
And so we see that the NEK Counties have some fairly significant challenges relative to the rest of the State.
But, I’m going to go ahead and assume here, that most or all of us in the room today were already aware of these challenges.
And so, it’s helpful to take a closer look into the kingdom.
Because it’s not entirely fair to look at the NEK as a whole. OR even to look at each County in the NEK as representative of all people or places in that County or in the Kingdom.

13. Workplace
Essex County workers are nearly all leaving the County to go to work.

14. Understanding the Northeast Kingdom
We want to better understand…
The Northeast Kingdom, the counties within the NEK, and the individual communities are not all the same.
There are places in the NEK that are hubs of activity.
Places where population and jobs are focused.
These hubs may look very different from their surrounding communities.
And may look more like other places in Vermont.
And these places may serve as leverage points within the NEK.
We can look more closely at the communities within the NEK to help us better pinpoint the challenges, and, very importantly, to help us see opportunities.

15. Population Centers

16. With mapping- we can begin to see patterns that show wide differentiation within the NEK.

17. Population Change
Population change as a percent of a town’s population…
Jay Town had an absolute increase in the vicinity of 350 residents. The greatest percentage increase and absolute increase in the NEK during this period.
Norton lost around 70 residents and Peacham lost 215 residents.

18. This is a map of percent pop change.
Newport Town gained about 270 people, while Newport City lost about 200 population.
The greatest absolute loss came in Troy- where they lost nearly 300 residents- right next to Newport Town.
Peacham and Glover also lost high absolute numbers- over 200 apiece.
We have migration data that we can dig in to further to better understand the exact trends occurring…

19. Jobs Inside the NEK
Changes in the number of jobs is highly variable across the NEK.
St. J had 3,353 jobs worked by residents in And lost nearly 600 jobs worked by residents from 2005.
Burke has the 8th highest number of jobs worked by residents- 692.

20. Overall, we see decreases in unemployment- or increased employment in the green areas.
While there are significant number of places where unemployment is increasing- yellow, orange and red areas.

21. Poverty inside the Kingdom
Vermont poverty rate around 12% for the same period. 16% for the U.S.
We see the wide disparity in poverty rates in communities across the kingdom.

22. Higher poverty rates appear to be clustered in the center of the kingdom…

23. What We Now Know About the NEK
The NEK is comprised of some of the least populous, least densely-settled counties in a state with one of the most rural populations in the country.
Poverty and Unemployment rates are higher than State averages, but similar to U.S levels.
Median Incomes track significantly lower than both Vermont and U.S. Median Incomes.
Essex County lacks the population centers found in Orleans and Caledonia Counties.
Essex County differences are often more pronounced than Orleans’ and Caledonia’s.
There are large differences among the NEK towns with regard to most indicators.

24. VT State Data Center Coordinator
Thank You
Contact
Michael Moser
VT State Data Center Coordinator