1. EU Enlargement and Agriculture: Risks and Opportunities Martin Konečný Friends of the Earth Europe

2. Risks Opportunities  Delocalisation – more transport
Loss of biodiversity
Pollution and soil degradation
Rural decline
New factory farms
Opportunities
 Limit pollution through EU legislation
 Green rural revival through 2nd pillar subsidies: boost organic farming, tourism, renewables, young farmers, maintain grasslands

3. Delocalisation: More long-distance transport
Causes
Single Market – elimination of trade barriers
Supermarkets and Agri-Food Business – centralised sourcing
Consequences
More transport
Specialisation, concentration, intensification/abandonment

4. Delocalisation So far…
German agricultural exports to NMS up by 29% (jan 05 / jan 04) : meat and meat products + 279%, cheese + 234%
Exports of live animals for slaughter soared (e.g. PL, CZ) -> imports of meat & oversupply of cereals
Polish food exports to EU-15 up by 37% (jan 05 / jan 04) Milk powder + 42%, cheese + 61% (04 / 03)
Hungary: domestic share of food market down from 90% to 85%

5. Rural decline So far… Farm employment: EU-15: 4% x CEE-10: 21%
Farm structures:
CZ & SK: extremely concentrated, low farm employment
SI, PL, LT, RO: extremely fragmented, many semi-subsistence farmers
“To reach only half of the average productivity of the EU-15 would already involve, with constant production, the destruction of 4 million agricultural jobs in the ten CEE countries”
So far…
Eurostat: Farmers’ incomes up 54% in 2004.

6. Intensification: More pesticides and fertilisers?
How will farmers use the additional money?
So far…
 Use of fertiliser in Czech Republic up by 25% in 2004

7. Pesticides use,

8. N-fertiliser use,
Longer time-scale

9. Cereal yield,

10. New factory farms?
1990s: CEE livestock numbers declined to less than a half
Intensive pig and poultry farms built with foreign investment (e.g. Danish pig farms, Smithfield)

11. EU environmental legislation
Pesticides
Nitrates
Water, air, soil
Animal welfare
Natura 2000
Will it be sufficient to offset the negative trends?

12. 2nd pillar: chances for green rural revival
Organic farming
Young farmers
Semi-subsistence farmers
Rural tourism
Renewable energy
Maintain semi-natural grasslands
Local economies (Leader, etc.)

13. Share of organic farmland, 1993-2002

14. Share of organic farmland, 2002

15. RDPs

16. RDPs 2004-06: +/- Czech Republic Poland
 No shift-back to the first pillar
 AEPs - well-prepared, 36% of RD expenditure
 LFAs - limited to grasslands, to reduce share of arable land
 Forestry measures - weak or absent environmental criteria
Poland
 Weak AEPs, severely delayed
 Lack of AE advisors

17. RDPs : +/-
Hungary
 AEPs very popular among farmers (4 times more applications)
 Government shifted funds back to 1st pillar, AEP budget reduced

18. RDPs for 2007-13: challenges Integration instead of polarization
Measures must not undermine each other
Environmental goals & criteria for all measures
3 axes not helpful
Lack of money (esp. for EU-15):
EC budget proposal : € 89 bn (+ € 7 bn modulation) = 2% decline for EU-15
Failed Luxembourg compromise: € 74 bn
Extended scope of the regulation