1. TYNDP: Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2016
Kristo Helin

2. What is the TYNDP? TYNDP TYNDP 2016 Is published by ENTSO-E
Presents how to develop the power grid in the next 15 years in order to achieve different energy related goals
Is created in a two-year process and published on even years
TYNDP 2016
Builds on the 2014 edition
”[O]ffers a view on what grid is needed where to achieve Europe’s climate objectives by 2030”

3. Overview Europe has set common targets for their energy policies
The targets do not define the structure of the energy system
Is the use of heat pumps and electric cars going to explode?
Is the system development going to be harmonised or individual?
Coal over gas OR gas over coal?
Will the goals be achieved with a slow or quick start?
The TYNDP 2016 approaches the problem with four separate scenarios, ”visions” for 2030, and an ”expected progress” scenario for 2020

4. Overview - Scenarios
Expected progress 2020 – It is assumed that all scenarios only start to diverge after this point
Vision 1 – Slow start for 2030 goals, coal over gas, individual policies
Vision 2 – Slow start for 2030 goals, coal over gas, harmonised policies
Vision 3 – Regular pace to 2030 goals, gas over coal, individual policies
Vision 4 – Regular pace to 2030 goals, gas over coal, harmonised policies
Note: The Visions are not forecasts

5. Overview - Scenarios
TYNDP 2016

6. Main research question
Investment needs and boundaries/barriers:
10 main ones (yellow) and several regional ones (grey)
What is the needed additional capacity on the main barriers?
TYNDP 2016

7. Method of modelling (1)
“ENTSO-E distinguishes between market studies and network studies. Market studies are used to calculate the dispatch of generation units and load all along the year on an hourly basis […]. They represent bidding areas through a network of interconnected nodes […]. Network studies, on the other hand, contain the full detail of the physical grid and are used to calculate the actual load flows that take place in the network under given generation/load conditions. Network studies are in particular necessary to compute the GTCs used in market studies.”
--ENTSO-E Guideline for Cost Benefit Analysis of Grid Development Projects, 2015

8. Method of modelling (2) Market studies Network studies
Hourly simulation
Dispatch of production units
Take into account constraints such as flexibility, availability of thermal units, hydro conditions, wind and solar and load profiles, …
Network studies
Flow simulation
Represent the precise network flows created by the dispatch and load patterns obtained through market studies
Both study types are used iteratively

9. Indicators used in assessment (1)
Needed capacities of transmission lines are determined by considering the power generation in the whole EU
In practice, each additional line is analysed separately. If the line adds value above its costs, the line is useful
TYNDP 2016

10. Indicators used in assessment (2)
“In every Vision, the TYNDP 2016 tests whether the European extra high-voltage grid is capable of transferring power from generation facilities to load centres in numerous situations. It identifies the possible bottlenecks and the associated investment needs, assesses the costs and benefits of (jointly) proposed reinforcements, […] and thus puts every investment project into a common perspective.” Used indicators: SEW and CBA

11. Socio-economic welfare (SEW)
“For all four refined 2030 Visions, the TYNDP 2016 fine-tunes the interconnection target capacities for every main boundary by 2030 […]. The interconnection level is optimal in this analysis when the societal economic benefits brought by an additional project fail to overcome its costs. This principle however, is complex to implement in practice, and the approach here considered is a simplified one as only Socio-Economic Welfare (SEW) is considered.”
“Socio-economic welfare (SEW) is characterised by the ability of a power system to reduce congestion and thus provide an adequate GTC so that electricity markets can trade power in an economically efficient manner” --ENTSO-E Guideline for Cost Benefit Analysis of Grid Development Projects, 2015

12. Cost benefit analysis (CBA)
“[…] ENTSO-E has defined this multi-criteria CBA […]. A robust assessment of transmission projects, especially in a meshed system, is a very complex matter. Additional lines […] leads to an increase of Social-Economic Welfare over Europe. Further benefits such as Security of Supply or improvements of the flexibility also have to be taken into due account. These technical aspects are hardly monetisable.”
--ENTSO-E Guideline for Cost Benefit Analysis of Grid Development Projects, 2015

13. Ex.: Nordics—Continental Europe West
”Interconnecting the hydro-based Nordic system (NO/SE) with the thermal/nuclear/wind-based Continental system”
Will improve SoS on both sides (Norway, Sweden, Cont. EU)
Reasonably good socio-economic cost-benefit ratio
However very dependent on basic price assumptions (CO2, coal, gas)
Generally expected to decrease CO2 emissions, however with low CO2 prices they may increase due to the connection

14. Ex.: Nordics—Continental Europe West
TYNDP 2016

15. Ex.: Nordics—Continental Europe West
“Having a look at SEW/GTC values in the different visions indicates that the energy-balance of the different visions both for the Nordics and Continental countries is the main driver for price differences in the visions hence they drive the SEW-value of connecting the Nordic and Continental systems. The Nordic surplus is very high in Vision 2, which results in a high price difference and subsequent high SEW/GTC-value.”
TYNDP 2016

16. Ex.: Nordics—Continental Europe West
Optimal level of interconnection 4.5—7 GW
Present and planned investments lead to reaching the target capacity by 2030
TYNDP 2016

17. Limitations
Work does not clearly and exactly define simulation methods
Applicable technologies and practices for grid operation are assumed, although they do not yet exist
CBA and SEW analyses not very exact methods
Only average hydrological year considered in some analyses
Relevant to us in the Nordic countries
The suggestions are no doubt valid, but their future is not very certain
Everyone wants benefits, no one wants costs
Projects may have cumulative impacts on other project’s economy
Lost benefit is not necessarily viewed as a cost

18. Some total benefits
TYNDP 2016 suggests 150 b€ investments, 80 b€ of which is for projects already endorsed in national plans
Effort is significant financially
Still, only 1.5—2 €/MWh in the total power consumption in 15 years
Less than 1 % of the total electricity bill
Suggested additions help avoid 30—90 TWh of RES spillage globally
Spillage reduced to 1 % of the total supply
Of the 50—80 % carbon emission reduction in the electricity sector by 2030 (from 1990), up to 8 % is enabled by the TYNDP suggestions

19. Thank you