1. Bank of Greece Conference on
Theodore Mitrakos Bank of Greece & Panos Tsakloglou Athens University of Economics and Business & IZA INEQUALITY, POVERY AND WELFARE IN GREECE: FROM THE RESTORATION OF DEMOCRACY TO THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CRISIS
Bank of Greece Conference on
“Social policies and social cohesion in Greece in light of the current economic crisis”
Athens, 13 May 2011

2. In recent years, many empirical investigations
Introduction
Distributional issues almost always in the centre of Greek public discourse.
In recent years, many empirical investigations
However, many assertions made in the public discourse, not substantiated, sometimes contradictory and/or not supported by the findings of empirical studies
Greek society characterized by acute class differences / Greek society dominated by middle classes
The poor are getting poorer and the rich are getting richer
The “new poor”
Objective of the paper: To provide a detailed picture of structure and inter-temporal trends in inequality and poverty until the current crisis, using all available HBSs 2

3. Large sample; Quality of the data
Household Budget Surveys (HBSs): Provide detail information on consumption expenditures, disposable income, socio-demographic characteristics of the population, material conditions of living, etc.
Only seven with national coverage: , 1982, 1988, 1994, 1999, 2004 and 2008
Large sample; Quality of the data
Consumption of own production (incl. imputed rent)
Results using both distributions (consumption expenditure, income). Usually, not different
Comparisons with ECHP / EU-SILC 3

4. Distributions of persons Equivalence scales
Methodology
Distributions of persons
Equivalence scales
Inequality indices: Gini, Atkinson (ε=0.5 & ε=2.0) Decomposition MLD (+ Theil + Varlog)
Poverty indices: Poverty Rate, Poverty Gap, FGT2
Welfare indicator: w=μ(1-I) 4

5. Decile shares
Consumption Expenditure Income

6. Inequality changes in decile shares
Consumption Expenditure
Income

7. Lorenz curves
Consumption Expenditure Income

8. Lorenz dominance and Lorenz curve differences
Consumption Expenditure
Income

9. Inter-temporal trends in inequality indices 1974-2008 (HBSs)
Consumption Expenditure Income

10. Inter-temporal trends in inequality Gini Index, (HBSs and ECHP / EU-SILC) Distribution of disposable income

11. Structure of inequality Share of “Between groups” component, Mean Log Deviation Distribution of consumption expenditure

12. Trend decomposition of inequality (1974-2008)

13. Inter-temporal trends in poverty indices 1974-2008 (HBSs) – relative poverty lines
Consumption Expenditure Income

14. Inter-temporal trends in poverty indices 1974-2008 (HBSs) – fixed (1999) poverty line
Consumption Expenditure Income

15. Inter-temporal trends in relative poverty Poverty rate, (HBSs and ECHP / EU-SILC) Distribution of disposable income

16. Poverty risk groups (consumption expenditure, FGT2)

17. Contribution to aggregate poverty (consumption expenditure, FGT2, 1974-2008)

18. Logit estimates of poverty risk (odds ratios, consumption expenditure)

19. Trend decomposition of poverty (, FGT2, 1974-2008)

20. Inter-temporal trends in welfare indices 1974-2008 (HBSs)
Consumption Expenditure Income

21. International comparisons: Inequality21

22. International comparisons: poverty22

23. Qualifications
Population groups under-represented in the HBS samples (homeless, institutionalized, immigrants)
Changes in indirect taxes (only consumption expenditure)
No inclusion of capital gains (only income)
No inclusion of public transfers in-kind (education, health care, etc)

24. Changes in indirect taxes (only consumption expenditure)
Qualifications
Population groups under-represented in the HBS samples (homeless, institutionalized, immigrants)
Changes in indirect taxes (only consumption expenditure)
No inclusion of capital gains (only income)
No inclusion of public transfers in-kind (education, health care, etc) 24

25. Inter-temporal trends
Conclusions
Inter-temporal trends
Inequality
Poverty (in relative terms)
Poverty (in absolute terms)
Welfare
Structure of inequality
Poverty risk groups
Structure of poverty
International comparisons
Rather “positive” results
And, then, the crisis arrived!