1. PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
Ch. 5: Forecasting
SUMMARY
POM - J. Galván

2. BASIC POINTS CAN WE FORESEE THE FUTURE? Definition of forecasting
Forecast design
Qualitative forecasts
Jury of executive opinion – Identify consensus
Sales force composite – Identify consensus
Delphi method – Identify consensus
Consumer Market Survey – Ask and observe
Quantitative forecasts
Time series models – Knowing history = estimate future
Causal models – A change in one variable = Observed effect
POM - J. Galván

3. QUESTIONS Forecasts help managers by reducing the degree of: Accuracy
Precision
Uncertainty
Reliability
Which one of the following forecasting techniques is used to identify a trend when data is neither growing nor declining rapidly and has no seasonal characteristics.
Simple moving average
Delphi method
Trend adjusted forecast
Naïve forecast
POM - J. Galván

4. QUESTIONS (II)
A gradual, long term upward or downward movement in data is referred to as:
Cycle
Trend
Seasonality
Random variation
Which one of the following management functions is based on forecasting?
Planning
Organizing
Leading
Controlling
POM - J. Galván

5. QUESTIONS (III)
You decide to forecast the number of students in Schiller’s Madrid campus for the next year. Describe the steps to follow and how to implement them
We intuitively feel that the specific colour of a car model is very important for the customers. How can you verify this intuition following forecasting techniques?
POM - J. Galván

6. EFFECTS OF POOR FORECASTING
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7. YOU MUST FORECAST THE FUTURE!
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8. FORECAST NEW INTERESTING USES OF COMPUTERS
POM - J. Galván