1. Draft 2013 Energy-Efficiency Forecast
February 15, 2013 | Boston, ma
Draft 2013 Energy-Efficiency Forecast
Restructuring Roundtable
Stephen J. Rourke
VICE PRESIDENT, SYSTEM PLANNING

2. About ISO New England Not-for-profit corporation
Created in 1997 to oversee New England’s restructured electric power system; regulated by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
Regional Transmission Organization
Independent of companies doing business in markets; no financial interest in companies participating in markets
Major responsibilities
Maintain reliable operation of the electric grid
Administer wholesale electricity markets
Plan for future system needs

3. Energy-Efficiency (EE) Forecast
Background

4. Long-term Load Forecast Projects Demand 10 Years Out
Baseline forecast developed with:
State and regional economic forecasts
40 years of New England weather history
Other factors:
US Dept of Energy projections of average retail prices
New EE standards for household appliances
Peak Demand Forecast
(megawatts)
+1.5% per year
Annual Energy Consumption Forecast (gigawatt-hours)
+0.9%
Per year

5. Energy Efficiency is a Priority in New England Recent state EE spending and electric energy savings,
Total NE states’ spending on EE in three-year period: $1.4B
Over $500 million spent in 2011
Total reduction in electricity use: 3,905 GWh
About 1,580 GWh of electricity savings in 2011
Total summer peak demand savings: 549 MW
Average annual summer peak demand reduction: 183 MW
$1.4B spent
3,905 GWh (energy saved)
549 MW (peak reduced)

6. EE in Forward Capacity Market
Annual Forward Capacity Market (FCM) auction commits resources to be available three years in the future
EE measures participate alongside generation
FCM provides a revenue stream that facilitates development of EE
2012 auction procured resources obligated for
33,455 MW total capacity that will be needed
~1,500 MW is EE
EE in FCM has more than doubled since 2008
Energy efficiency
Emergency Generation
Active Real- Time Demand-response

7. Energy-Efficiency Forecast Model Developed in 2012
Previously, no well-established metrics for determining how much electricity will not be consumed in the future as a result of EE measures
ISO-NE developed a forecast of “EE savings”—how much electric energy will not be used—beyond the 3-year FCM horizon ( )
Forecast model based on future state EE budgets and amount of energy savings per dollar spent
Data provided by states and/or EE program administrators (PA’s)

8. EE Forecast Model General Assumptions
Annual budgets provided by the public utility commissions or representatives on their behalf are used in model
Sources of EE funding include:
System Benefits Charges
Forward Capacity Market
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
Other
Production cost allowed to grow over forecast period
Based on the PA’s ability to spend growing EE budgets and potential for increasing production costs, ISO applied uncertainty factor to some states

9. 2013 Energy-Efficiency Forecast
Regional Results

10. Summary of 2013 EE Forecast
Draft forecast results are similar to the 2012 forecast results
Generally, when adjusted for the impacts of EE, forecasted energy use remains flat for the region
Reductions in energy use in VT and RI
Generally, demand reductions from EE slow peak growth rate in the region
Program performance changes from 2012 forecast
Regional production cost decreased slightly, resulting in an increase in energy reductions
Peak-to-energy-ratios decreased slightly, resulting in smaller demand reductions from equivalent energy reductions
Results vary by state

11. Regional EE Forecast Results (2016 to 2022)
Total projected spending on energy efficiency: $5.6 billion
Peak demand rises more slowly than with traditional forecast
Average annual reduction in peak demand: 188 MW
Total projected reduction over seven years: 1,314 MW
In VT, forecasted peak demand declines
Annual electricity consumption remains flat compared to traditional forecast
Average annual energy savings: 1,319 GWh
Total projected reduction over seven years: 9,233 GWh
RI and VT forecasts show declining annual electricity consumption

12. Energy and Summer Peak EE Forecast Data
GWh Savings
Sum of States ME NH VT CT RI MA
2016
1,594
104 60
105
246
161
919
2017
1,494 97 57
232
150
861
2018
1,399 90 54 91
218
140
806
2019
1,309 84 51
204
131
754
2020
1,224 77 48 78
192
122
706
2021
1,144 71 46 73
180
114
660
2022
1,069 65 43 68
169
106
618
Total
9,233
588
359
596
1,441
924
5,324
Average
1,319 85
206
132
761
MW Savings
227 12 10 15 31 26
133
213 11 9 14 29 24
124
199 13 27 23
116
186 8 21
109
174 20
102
163 18 95
152 7 17 89
1314 67 59 87
181
149
768
188
110 12

13. New England Results: Lower Peak Demand Growth, Level Energy Demand
New England: Summer 90/10 Peak (MW)
New England: Annual Energy (GWh)

14. EE Measures Focus on Lighting

15. New England Winter Peaks Trending Down

16. Implications to the Power System
Timing of necessary transmission upgrades
Winter versus summer peak and energy impacts
Declining load factor; minimum load issues
Natural gas, nuclear, EE, DR, renewables
Will this be our system?

17. Conclusions States continue to make large investments in EE
ISO-NE worked successfully with stakeholders to integrate EE data into ISO’s long-term planning & forecast processes
EE forecast shows the states’ investment in EE is having a significant impact on electric energy consumption and peak demand
VT/NH planning study: analysis revised with new resources & transmission and EE forecast indicates about $260 million of previously identified transmission upgrades deferred
For more information see

19. Energy-Efficiency Forecast
State-by-State Results

20. Connecticut: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
Energy-efficiency results, :
Total spending: $337.7 million
Total energy saved: 1,009 GWh
Annual average energy saved: GWh
Total peak demand savings: 127 MW
Annual average: 42 MW
Energy-efficiency forecast, :
Total spending: $806 million
Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 1,441 GWh
Annual average: 206 GWh
Projected total reduction in peak demand: 181 MW
Annual average: 26 MW
CT program administrators:
CT Light & Power:
United Illuminating Co.:

21. Connecticut Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

22. Maine: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
Energy-efficiency results, :
Total spending: $53.4 million
Total energy saved: 282 GWh
Annual average: 94 GWh
Total peak demand savings: 32 MW
Annual average: 11 MW
Energy-efficiency forecast, :
Total spending: $202.7 million
Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 588 GWh
Annual average: 84 GWh
Projected total reduction in peak demand: 67 MW
Annual average: 10 MW
ME Program Administrators:
Efficiency Maine: 
Maine Public Service Commission:

23. Maine Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

24. Massachusetts: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
Energy-efficiency results, :
Total spending: $729.3 million
Total energy saved: 1,828 GWh
Annual average: GWh
Total peak demand savings: 264 MW
Annual average: 88 MW
Energy-efficiency forecast,
Total spending: $3.5 billion
Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 5,324 GWh
Annual average: 761 GWh
Projected total reduction in peak demand: 768 MW
Annual average: 120 MW
MA program administrators:
Cape Light Compact:
Fitchburg Electric:
Mass. Electric Co. (Nantucket Electric Co.):
NSTAR:
Western Mass. Electric Co.:

25. Massachusetts Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

26. New Hampshire: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
Energy-efficiency results, :
Total spending: $58.6 million
Total energy saved: GWh
Annual average: 63.8 GWh
Total peak demand savings: 32 MW
Annual average: 11 MW
Energy-efficiency forecast, :
Total spending: $183.1 million
Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 359 GWh
Annual average: 51 GWh
Projected total reduction in peak demand: 59 MW
Annual average: 8 MW
NH program administrators:
Public Service of New Hampshire:
Unitil:
Granite State Electric Co.:  

27. New Hampshire Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

28. Rhode Island: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
Energy-efficiency results, :
Total spending: $90.2 million
Total energy saved: GWh
Annual average: 86.2 GWh
Total peak demand savings: 42 MW
Annual average: 14 MW
Energy-efficiency forecast, :
Total spending: $538.5 million
Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 924 GWh
Annual average: 132 GWh
Projected total reduction in peak demand: 149 MW
Annual average: 21 MW
RI program administrator:
Narragansett Electric Co.:

29. Rhode Island Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

30. Vermont: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
Energy-efficiency results, :
Total spending: $102.6 million
Total energy saved: 317 GWh
Annual average: GWh
Total megawatts of peak saved: 46 MW
Annual average: 16 MW
Energy-efficiency forecast, :
Total spending: $321.3 million
Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 596 GWh
Annual average: 85 GWh
Projected total reduction in peak demand: 87 MW
Annual average: 12 MW
VT program administrators:
Efficiency Vermont:  
Burlington Electric: 

31. Vermont Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021