1. Methodology for policy evaluation on Large Combustion Plants
2nd Eionet NRC workshop on Industrial Pollution

2. Objective
Evaluation of the relevance and effectiveness of the EU policies on air pollutant emissions of Large Combustion Plants (LCPs) in the period

3. Overview Policy evaluation methodology
Methodology report & EIONET review
Conclusions & next steps

4. Policy evaluation methodology
Key policy evaluation criteria:
The criteria effectiveness and relevance will be evaluated quantitatively, the other three criteria more qualitatively.
Establishing causality between LCP policies and emission effects will not be the focus of this study.
Relevance
Efficiency
EU value added
Effectiveness
Coherence

5. Effectiveness of LCP policies
The effectiveness of LCP policies will be assessed using four different approaches:
Scenario analyses
Analyses of emission intensities
Analyses of emission and energy decoupling in the LCP sector
Analyses of co-benefits on the emissions of other substances

6. I) Scenario analyses
Hypothetical historical emission scenarios will be built based on different ways to implement LCP policies.
The scenarios allow to compare with real emissions as reported by the countries.
Scenarios:
Real emissions
Scenario 1: Counterfactual scenario
Scenario 2: LCPD Emission Limit Values without derogatory regimes
Scenario 3: LCPD Emission Limit Values with derogatory regimes
Scenario 4: Upper-end BAT-AELs, no derogations
Scenario 5: Lower-end BAT-AELs, no derogations
Scenario 6: Upper-end BAT-AELs, derogations included
Scenario 7: Lower-end BAT-AELs, derogations included

7. Overview of scenarios (1/3)
Real emissions
Emissions as reported in the LCP emission inventory
Scenario 1: Counterfactual scenario
Constant performance
The hypothetical emission of a plant is obtained by multiplying the energy input by an implied emission factor.
The implied emission factor is defined as the ratio of the emission of a substance and the energy input.

8. Example

9. Overview of scenarios (2/3)
The LCP Directive (LCPD) established Emission Limit Values (ELVs) for the plants within scope, based on the year that they commenced operation.
There are a number of derogations that allow an LCP to opt-out from the designated ELVs or to apply less stringent limits.
Scenario 2: LCPD Emission Limit Values without derogatory regimes
Compliance with LCPD Emission Limit Values
Scenario 3: LCPD Emission Limit Values with derogatory regimes
Includes effects of derogations

10. Overview of scenarios (3/3)
Alternatively, plants can be assumed to operate according to the Best Available Techniques Associated Emission Levels (BAT-AELs) of the LCP BAT Reference document 2006.
Scenario 4: Upper-end BAT-AELs, no derogations
Scenario 5: Lower-end BAT-AELs, no derogations
Scenario 6: Upper-end BAT-AELs, derogations included
Scenario 7: Lower-end BAT-AELs, derogations included

11. Remarks
In the LCP emission inventory, data on fuel input are aggregated into only five fuel categories.
To obtain more information on the specific fuels used, the World Electric Power Plants Data Base (Platts) and Eurostat statistics will be used.
Estimates of annual flue gas volumes on a plant-by-plant basis are needed to calculate flue gas concentration values.
Natural gas
Biomass
Other gases
Liquid fuels
Other solid fuels

12. II) Emission intensities
Emission intensities are calculated by dividing the total LCP emissions per substance by the total LCP energy input.
An analysis will be made of the development of emission intensities of LCPs:
By Member State
By capacity class (e.g MWth, MWth,…)
By combination of fuel type (natural gas, biomass,…) and sector (chemical industry, paper/pulp production,…)
For this analysis, data from the LCP emission inventory, the NEC/LRTAP inventory and Eurostat will be used.

13. Example

14. Example

15. Example

16. III) Emission and energy decoupling
How have emissions per unit of production changed over de course of the period ?
Sector
Measure of production
Source of data
Public electricity production
Gross electricity production of main activity producers (GWh)
Eurostat
Industry
Gross value added of the industry (€)
Iron/steel industry
Produced amount of crude steel (Mt)
The European Steel Association
Chemical industry
Gross value added of the chemical industry (€)
Paper/pulp industry
Produced amount of paper and pulp (Mt)
Confederation of European paper industries

17. IV) Co-benefits
Assessment whether reductions of emissions of particle-bound heavy metals have been realized, e.g. as a side effect of emission control technologies.
Analysis based on emissions reported in the E-PRTR dataset and energy input in the LCP emission inventory.
The analysis will be limited to a select group of single-fuel plants (criterium: one fuel represents > 95% of total fuel input).

18. Example

19. Relevance of LCP policies
The relevance of LCP policies will be assessed by determining the share of LCPs within the overall and sectoral emissions of NOx, SO2 and dust.
Overall and sectoral emissions at Member State level are reported under NEC/LRTAP.
Sectoral detailing of LCPs will be based on the linkage between the LCP emission inventory and the E-PRTR dataset.

20. Methodology report Methodology report (April 2016):
Large combustion plants policy evaluation
A review of the impact on emissions of air pollutants; Methodology
Authors:
Wouter Wetzels, Luc Van Wortswinkel, Lietbet Van den Abeele, Caroline Polders (VITO)
Lorenz Moosmann (UBA)
Peter Coenen, Stijn Dellaert, Antoon Visschedijk (TNO)
Daniel Martín-Montalvo Álvarez (EEA)
EEA project manager:  

21. EIONET review (April 2016)
Comments or endorsements from Belgium, the Czech Republic, Germany, France, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Sweden, Slovakia and Turkey.
Some of the comments:
Suggestions for a broader scope
Comments about the method to determine effects of derogations (opt-outs)
Recommendation to reconsider the definition of single-fuel plants
Discussion of the links to energy and greenhouse gas policies
Request for an overview of earlier studies

22. Conclusions and next steps
We have developed a methodology to evaluate the relevance and effectiveness of the EU policies on air pollutant emissions of LCPs in the period
Next steps:
Start of implementation: May 2016
Draft report on implementation: December 2016
During 2017:
Update of the report with the 2015 LCP inventory data
Eionet consultation
Publication

23. Thank you for your attention Wouter Wetzels, wouter.wetzels@vito.be