1. SA Economic Indicators:
for the month of June 2014

2. SA Economic Indicators
Economic Growth (GDP)
Updated June 2014
Q2 due to be released in August 2014
Source: statssa.co.za

3. SA Economic Indicators
Economic Growth (GDP)
COMMENTARY
2014 prospects: Real GDP growth for the year is forecast by the Reserve Bank to be 2.1%, down from a previous forecast of 2.6%
Economists polled by Reuters expect GDP growth for the year to average 1.9%, the same as 2013
For the latest period:
GDP contracted -0.6% in Q1/2014, compared with positive growth of 3.8% in Q4/2013
This is the first contraction in GDP since Q3/2009 and does not bode well for the South African economy
The nominal GDP value was R874bn, R2bn less than Q4/2013
The positive contributors to GDP in Q1 were:
Finance, real estate and business services – growth of 2%
Wholesale, retail and motor trade; catering and accommodation industry – growth of 2.1%
The negative contributors to GDP in Q1 were:
Mining and quarrying industry – negative growth of -24.7%
Manufacturing industry – negative growth of -4.4%
The decline is mainly due to the effects of the record long platinum strike, which has had knock-on effects on manufacturing and retail
The protracted strike could see the South African economy slip into a recession. A recession is defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth. Platinum production, if the strike ends, would only begin again in Q3/2014
Declining vehicle sales and manufacturing data released at the beginning of June shows that the prospects of a recovery in Q2/2014 are diminishing as the economy worsens
A threat to strike by NUMSA in the metal industry could again see the economy brought to its knees, with analysts predicting that the economy will not survive another drawn-out strike in a vital industry

4. Kim Furber | Online Support Kirsten Clarke | Retail Analyst - Majors
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Kim Furber | Online Support
Kirsten Clarke | Retail Analyst - Majors
Darren Folkes | Junior Retail Analyst
Kate Shirley | Independent Retail Analyst
Maryla Masojada | Head Research
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Other Sources
ABSA Agri Trends; BizCommunity; Bloomberg; Business Day; Business Report; Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries; Financial Mail; Finweek; Fin 24; The Mercury; Reuters; Stanlib, Sunday Times; Sunday Tribune; The Times ; thesouthafrican.com