1. Jason Lowe, Pike association of southern baptists
Lostness in Kentucky
Jason Lowe,
Pike association of southern baptists

2. Source Data
The summaries in this report are drawn from the following data sources:
U.S. Census Bureau (census.gov)
KBC Lostness Indicators for Kentucky Report (a.k.a. “Glenmary Report”)
Kentucky Baptist Convention Mission Board staff

3. Overview of Kentucky Population (2015 Estimate): 4,425,273
Counties: 120
% of Adherents: 51.6% (2,282,048 Kentuckians)
% of Membership: 33.8% (1,497,925 Kentuckians)
% of Attenders (Weekly): 13.0% (575,911 Kentuckians)
Total KBC Churches: 2,503
KBC Church to Population Ratio: 1 KBC church for every 1,768 Kentuckians

4. KBC Consultant Regions

5. KBC Regional Comparisons
Population
# Counties
# KBC Churches
KBC Church Ratio
# KBC Funded Church Plants
West
474,879 19
506
1:938 13
South Central
540,679 20
425
1:1272 8
Central
1,303,806 15
482
1:2705
North Central
1,171,578 21
406
1:2886 10
South
388,048 16
437
1:888 3
East
546,283 29
247
1:2212 1
Total
4,425,273
120
2,503
1:1768 55

6. KBC Regional Comparisons
% Adherents
Total Non-Adherents
% Members
Total Non-Members
% Attenders
Total Non-Attenders
West
65.0%
166,444
48.4%
245,069
19.4%
382,967
S. Central
56.9%
232,959
40.5%
321,911
15.9%
454,920
Central
53.1%
611,505
30.8%
902,291
11.6%
1,152,492
N. Central
49.8%
588,236
29.4%
827,275
11.4%
1,037,562
South
52.4%
184,752
41.9%
225,343
15.1%
329,497
East
34.2%
359,330
25.8%
405,459
10.0%
491,925
Total
51.6%
2,143,225
33.8%
2,927,348
13.0%
3,849,362

7. Regional Comparisons: Population
1. Central – 1,303,806
2. North Central – 1,171,578
3. East – 546,283
4. South Central – 540,679
5. West – 474,879
6. South – 388,048

8. Regional Comparisons: % of Adherents (Ranked Low to High)
1. East – 34.2%
2. North Central – 49.8%
3. South – 52.4%
4. Central – 53.1%
5. South Central – 56.9%
6. West – 65.0%

9. Regional Comparisons: Most Non-Adherents
1. Central – 611,505
2. North Central – 588,236
3. East – 359,330
4. South Central – 232,959
5. South – 184,752
6. West – 166,444

10. Regional Comparisons: % of Members (Ranked Low to High)
1. East – 25.8%
2. North Central – 29.4%
3. Central – 30.8%
4. South Central – 40.5%
5. South – 41.9%
6. West – 48.4%

11. Regional Comparisons: Most Non-Members
1. Central – 902,291
2. North Central – 827,275
3. East – 405,459
4. South Central – 321,911
5. West – 245,069
6. South – 225,343

12. Regional Comparisons: % of Attenders (Ranked Low to High)
1. East – 10.0%
2. North Central – 11.4%
3. Central – 11.6%
4. South – 15.1%
5. South Central – 15.9%
6. West – 19.4%

13. Regional Comparisons: Most Non-Attenders
1. Central – 1,152,492
2. North Central – 1,037,562
3. East – 491,925
4. South Central – 454,920
5. West – 382,967
6. South – 329,497

14. Regional Comparisons: KBC Church to Population Ratio
1. North Central – 1:2886
2. Central – 1:2705
3. East – 1:2212
4. South Central – 1:1272
5. West – 1:938
6. South – 1:888

15. Regional Comparisons: KBC Funded Church Plants
1. Central - 20
2. West - 13
3. North Central - 10
4. South Central – 8
5. South - 3
6. East - 1

16. Church Planting Priority Index
The Church Planting Priority Index ranks the 6 KBC regions in each of the following categories:
% Non-Adherents
Total Non-Adherents
% Non-Members
Total Non-Members
% Non-Attenders
Total Non-Attenders
KBC Church to Population Ratio
# of Current KBC-Funded Church Plants

17. KBC Church Planting Priority Index: Regional Rankings
% Non-Adherents
Total Non-Adherents
% Non-Members
Total Non-Members
% Non-Attenders
Total Non-Attenders
KBC Church Ratio
KBC Church Plants
Average Ranking
West 6 5
5.50
S. Central 4 3
4.13
Central 1 2
2.63
N. Central
2.13
South
4.63
East
2.00

18. Church Planting Priority Index
The data comparisons from the Church Planting Priority Index suggests that church planting is needed in the KBC regions in the following order of priority:
1. East (Index = 2.00)
2. North Central (Index = 2.13)
3. Central (Index = 2.63)
4. South Central (Index = 4.13)
5. South (Index = 4.63)
6. West (Index = 5.50)

19. Spiritual Demographics for Kentucky Counties

20. Top 25 Most Lost KY Counties (Based upon % of Non-Adherents)
1. Elliot (East)
10. Robertson (East)
19. Lawrence (East)
2. Menifee (East)
11. Letcher (East)
20. Leslie (East)
3. Breathitt (East)
12. Magoffin (East)
21. Allen (South Central)
4. Rowan (East)
13. Jackson (South)
22. Floyd (East)
5. Morgan (East)
14. Carter (East)
23. Pike (East)
6. Wolfe (East)
15. Johnson (East)
24. Bullitt (Central)
7. McCreary (South)
16. Lewis (East)
25. Owsley (South)
8. Knott (East)
17. Lee (East)
9. Martin (East)
18. Jessamine (North Central)

21. Top 25 Most Lost KY Counties (Based upon # of Non-Adherents)
1. Jefferson (Central)
10. Pike (East)
19. Barren (South Central)
2. Fayette (North Central)
11. Jessamine (North Central)
20. Franklin (Central)
3. Kenton (North Central)
12. Oldham (Central)
21. Greenup (East)
4. Warren (South Central)
13. Christian (West)
22. Nelson (Central)
5. Boone (North Central)
14. Laurel (South)
23. Shelby (Central)
6. Hardin (Central)
15. Scott (North Central)
24. Carter (East)
7. Madison (North Central)
16. Daviess (South Central)
25. Henderson (West)
8. Bullitt (Central)
17. Pulaski (South)
9. Campbell (North Central)
18. Floyd (East)

22. Top 25 Most Unchurched KY Counties (Based upon % of Non-Attenders)
1. Elliot (East)
10. Campbell (North Central)
19. Rowan (East)
2. Lewis (East)
11. Spencer (Central)
20. Pike (East)
3. Edmonson (South Central)
12. Johnson (East)
21. Menifee (East)
4. McCreary (South)
13. Nicholas (East)
22. Morgan (East)
5. Kenton (North Central)
14. Letcher (East)
23. Jackson (South)
6. Carter (East)
15. Breathitt (East)
24. Gallatin (North Central)
7. Martin (East)
16. Bracken (East)
25. Bullitt (Central)
8. Lawrence (East)
17. Marion (Central)
9. Robertson (East)
18. Knott (East)

23. Top 25 Most Unchurched KY Counties (Based upon # of Non-Attenders)
1. Jefferson (Central)
10. Bullitt (Central)
19. Franklin (Central)
2. Fayette (North Central)
11. Christian (West)
20. Nelson (Central)
3. Kenton (North Central)
12. Oldham (Central)
21. Boyd (East)
4. Boone (North Central)
13. Pike (East)
22. Shelby (Central)
5. Warren (South Central)
14. Pulaski (South)
23. Henderson (West)
6. Hardin (Central)
15. Laurel (South)
24. Hopkins (West)
7. Campbell (North Central)
16. McCracken (West)
25. Barren (South Central)
8. Daviess (South Central)
17. Jessamine (North Central)
9. Madison (North Central)
18. Scott (North Central)

24. # of Counties in Top 25 by KBC Region
Most Lost Counties (%)
Most Lost Counties (Population)
Most Unchurched Counties (%)
Most Unchurched Counties (Pop)
West 2 4
South Central 1 3
Central 7
North Central
South
East 19 16
Total 25

25. Priority Counties for Church Planting (# of times on Top 25 listed in {})
Bullitt (Central) – {4}
Pike (East) – {4}
Carter (East) – {3}
Jessamine (North Central) – {3}
Kenton (North Central) – {3}

26. Summary of Findings: West Region
Has the most KBC churches of any of the 6 regions.
0 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon percentage of lostness.
2 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon population.
0 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon percentage.
4 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon population.
Received the lowest Church Planting Priority Index ranking of the 6 regions.

27. Summary of Findings: South Central Region
Has the third most churches of any of the 6 KBC regions.
1 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon percentage of lostness.
3 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon population.
1 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon percentage.
3 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon population.
Ranked #4 out of the 6 KBC regions on the Church Planting Priority Index.

28. Summary of Findings: Central Region
Has the second most churches of any of the 6 KBC regions.
1 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon percentage of lostness.
7 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon population.
3 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon percentage.
7 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon population.
Ranked #3 out of the 6 KBC regions on the Church Planting Priority Index.

29. Summary of Findings: North Central Region
Has the worst KBC church to population ratio of the 6 regions.
1 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon percentage of lostness.
7 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon population.
3 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon percentage.
7 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon population.
Ranked #2 out of the 6 KBC regions on the Church Planting Priority Index.

30. Summary of Findings: South Region
Has the best KBC church to population ratio of the 6 regions.
3 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon percentage of lostness.
2 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon population.
2 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon percentage.
2 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon population.
Ranked #5 out of the 6 KBC regions on the Church Planting Priority Index.

31. Summary of Findings: East Region
Has the fewest number of churches of any KBC region (159 lower than second fewest {North Central region}).
19 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon percentage of lostness.
4 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon population.
16 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon percentage.
2 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon population.
Ranked #1 out of the 6 KBC regions on the Church Planting Priority Index.

32. Summary of Findings
The East, Central, and North Central regions have a significantly greater number of lost and unchurched compared to the West, South, and South Central regions.
The East, Central, and North Central regions also have a much worse KBC church to population ratio compared to the West, South, and South Central regions.
While new churches are needed everywhere, the East, Central, and North Central regions have a much greater need for church planting than the West, South, and South Central regions, based upon available data.