1. Monday, October 10, 2016 Warm-up Random Numbers Simulations
A special promotion for soda has a printed message on the inside of each bottle cap. Some have “try again” while others have “you’re a winner”. 1 in 6 of the bottles wins a prize.
Roll your dice seven times to simulate the process of seven people buying a bottle of soda.
How many people “won” in your simulation?
Random Numbers
Simulations

2. Objectives
Content Objective: I will discuss how and why random numbers are generated to simulate a situation.
Social Objective: I will pay attention and not distract others.
Language Objective: I will pay special attention to new vocabulary and write it in a way that I can remember and use.

3. Check homework

4. Practical Randomness
We need an imitation of a real process so we can manipulate and control it.
In short, we are going to simulate reality.

5. A Simulation
The sequence of events we want to investigate is called a trial.
The basic building block of a simulation is called a component.
Trials usually involve several components.
After the trial, we record what happened—our response variable.
There are seven steps to a simulation…

6. Simulation Steps Identify the component to be repeated.
Explain how you will model the component’s outcome.
Explain how you will combine the components to model a trial.
State clearly what the response variable is.
Run several trials.
Collect and summarize the results of all the trials.
State your conclusion.

7. Using a Random Digit Table
A Simulation
A special promotion for soda has a printed message on the inside of each bottle cap. Some have “try again” while others have “you’re a winner”. 1 in 6 of the bottle wins a prize. How many people out of a group of 7 should I expect to win?
Using a Random Digit Table
Identify the component to be repeated.
Explain how you will model the component’s outcome.
Explain how you will combine the components to model a trial.
State clearly what the response variable is.
Run several trials.
Collect and summarize the results of all the trials.
State your conclusion.

8. Using the random generator on the calculator
A Simulation
A special promotion for soda has a printed message on the inside of each bottle cap. Some have “try again” while others have “you’re a winner”. 1 in 6 of the bottle wins a prize. How many people out of a group of 7 should I expect to win?
Using the random generator on the calculator
Identify the component to be repeated.
Explain how you will model the component’s outcome.
Explain how you will combine the components to model a trial.
State clearly what the response variable is.
Run several trials.
Collect and summarize the results of all the trials.
State your conclusion.

9. Pass the Pigs… Identify the component to be repeated.
Explain how you will model the component’s outcome.
Explain how you will combine the components to model a trial.
State clearly what the response variable is.
Run several trials.
Collect and summarize the results of all the trials.
State your conclusion.

10. Pass the Pigs Outcomes Identify the component to be repeated.
Side – no dot
34.9%
Side – dot
30.2%
Razorback
22.4%
Trotter
8.8%
Snouter
3.0%
Leaning Jowler
0.61%
Identify the component to be repeated.
Explain how you will model the component’s outcome.

11. Pass the Pigs Scoring – play to 100 or 500
Side – no dot
0 pts
Side – dot
0 pts
Razorback
5 pts
Trotter
5 pts
Snouter
10 pts
Leaning Jowler
15 pts
Double Razorback
20 pts
Double Trotter
20 pts
Double Snouter
40 pts
Sider
1 pt
Double Leaning Jowler
60 pts
Explain how you will combine the components to model a trial.
State clearly what the response variable is.

12. Pass the Pigs… Run several trials.
Collect and summarize the results of all the trials.
State your conclusion.

13. What Can Go Wrong? Don’t overstate your case.
Beware of confusing what really happens with what a simulation suggests might happen.
Model outcome chances accurately.
A common mistake in constructing a simulation is to adopt a strategy that may appear to produce the right kind of results.
Run enough trials.
Simulation is cheap and fairly easy to do.

14. Homework
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