1. Sustainable Capacity in Value, Biomass & Carbon What Models Provide James D. Arney, Ph.D. Forest Biometrics Research Institute Missoula, Montana Society of American Foresters, National Convention Albuquerque, New Mexico October 28, 2010

2. Forest Measurements & Models 1930-1950s USDA Yield Tables 1930-1950s USDA Yield Tables 1960s Angle Gauges & Stand Density 1960s Angle Gauges & Stand Density 1970s CFI and Silviculture Studies 1970s CFI and Silviculture Studies Computerized Cruise Compilers & Inventory Computerized Cruise Compilers & Inventory Computerized Growth Models Computerized Growth Models Private Research Cooperatives Private Research Cooperatives 1980-1990s One Scientist – One Model 1980-1990s One Scientist – One Model Decline in Public Funding for Growth & Yield Research Decline in Public Funding for Growth & Yield Research

3. 2010 Growth Model Status Growth Model DeveloperStatus Prognosis Al Stage, Bill Wycoff Retired FVS Ralph Johnson, Gary Dixon Retired DFSIM Bob Curtis, Gary Clendenen Retired TASS Ken Mitchell Retired Cactos / Cryptos Lee Wensel Retired ORGANON Dave Hann ? SPS Jim Arney ? FPS Active PPSIM Don DeMars, Walt Dahms Retired

4. National Capacity in Forestry Research National Research Council, Washington, DC - 2002

5. 2010 Growth & Silviculture 2002 National Research Council Report 2002 National Research Council Report National Capacity in Forestry Research has waned even as need for enhanced technical knowledge has increased. National Capacity in Forestry Research has waned even as need for enhanced technical knowledge has increased. Forestry Research Capacity at a crossroads, if not a precipice. Forestry Research Capacity at a crossroads, if not a precipice. Significant Restructuring has Occurred Significant Restructuring has Occurred Growth Model R&D dropped from Public Sector Growth Model R&D dropped from Public Sector Experiment Stations & Universities lost focus Experiment Stations & Universities lost focus College Preparation is inadequate foundation College Preparation is inadequate foundation Forest Industry has limited staff & skill sets Forest Industry has limited staff & skill sets

6. Where To From Here (Arney) Two - Four Regional Forestry Colleges Two - Four Regional Forestry Colleges A Working Experimental Forest A Working Experimental Forest Public Demonstration of Working Forest Public Demonstration of Working Forest Fully Sustainable and Working Harvest Plan Fully Sustainable and Working Harvest Plan Active Research Trials in Applied Silviculture Active Research Trials in Applied Silviculture Continuing Education in Forest Methods Continuing Education in Forest Methods A Regional Forestry Research Center A Regional Forestry Research Center On-going Silvicultural Research Trials On-going Silvicultural Research Trials Reference Point for Forest Yield Capacities Reference Point for Forest Yield Capacities On-going Technical Support to Forest Industry On-going Technical Support to Forest Industry

7. Forest Biometrics Research Institute (FBRI) Mission Research Research Site Capacity, Taper, Silviculture & Growth Regional Non-Parametric Libraries for All Species Relational Database Software & Support FBRI-Certified Regional Species Libraries Education Education Forest Inventory – Workshops & Methods Growth, Yield and Silviculture Workshops Harvest Scheduling & Planning Workshops Service Service Direct Technical Assistance as Requested On-Site Participation in Research & Operations Phone Conferencing & Web Site Downloads Tutorial & Research Documents and Publications IRS Tax-exempt, Non-profit since 2003

8. 1996 Release of FPS Model Tree List, Distant Dependent Structure Tree List, Distant Dependent Structure External Species Libraries by Region External Species Libraries by Region Non-Parametric Models Non-Parametric Models Site Capacity (Soil, Climate, Topography) Site Capacity (Soil, Climate, Topography) Competition for Light, Water, Nutrients Competition for Light, Water, Nutrients Species Capacity, Tolerance and Range Species Capacity, Tolerance and Range Genetic Capacity and Range Genetic Capacity and Range Vigor versus Disease, Pests, Weather and Fire Vigor versus Disease, Pests, Weather and Fire Balanced Orthogonal Sample Designs Balanced Orthogonal Sample Designs

9. The Forest Projection System (FPS) Forest Inventory Relational Database Forest Inventory Relational Database Stand Polygon - #, Type, Size Stand Polygon - #, Type, Size Cruise Selection / Cruise Compiler Cruise Selection / Cruise Compiler Cruise Expansion Cruise Expansion Re-Merchandiser Re-Merchandiser Habitat Classification Habitat Classification Growth and Yield Model (Individual-tree, DD) Growth and Yield Model (Individual-tree, DD) Species, Size mixtures (natural, planted & regeneration) Species, Size mixtures (natural, planted & regeneration) Localized Site, Clumpiness, Taper relationships Localized Site, Clumpiness, Taper relationships Silviculture effects (Site Prep, Brush, Animal, Thin, Fert, Prune) Silviculture effects (Site Prep, Brush, Animal, Thin, Fert, Prune) Linked GIS Database – Live FPS GIS Interface Linked GIS Database – Live FPS GIS Interface Harvest Scheduling Model Harvest Scheduling Model Stand & Neighbor (GIS) Spatial Constraints Stand & Neighbor (GIS) Spatial Constraints Watershed Constraints (basin forest cover) Watershed Constraints (basin forest cover) Wildlife Constraints (nesting sites) Wildlife Constraints (nesting sites) Ownership Constraints (pre-assigned & periodic set asides) Ownership Constraints (pre-assigned & periodic set asides)

10. Current FBRI Databases Over 23,000 Permanent Research Plots Over 23,000 Permanent Research Plots 75,000 Observations of Growth & Yield 75,000 Observations of Growth & Yield 3,000,000 Tree Measurements 3,000,000 Tree Measurements Up to 70 Years of Observation Up to 70 Years of Observation Over Twenty Species Represented Over Twenty Species Represented $75 Million Dollar Investment ($1,000/Msmt) $75 Million Dollar Investment ($1,000/Msmt) All Databases in Standardized Format All Databases in Standardized Format

12. FPS Regional Species Libraries Oregon Cascades – 1996, 2006 Oregon Cascades – 1996, 2006 Western Washington – 1997, 2006 Western Washington – 1997, 2006 Central Washington – 1999, 2006 Central Washington – 1999, 2006 North Idaho & Western Montana – 1999, 2006 North Idaho & Western Montana – 1999, 2006 Central Oregon – 1998, 2006 Central Oregon – 1998, 2006 Northern California – 2000, 2006 Northern California – 2000, 2006 Oregon Coast Range – 2006 Oregon Coast Range – 2006 Southwest British Columbia – 1995, 2006 Southwest British Columbia – 1995, 2006 Southeast Alaska – 2009 Southeast Alaska – 2009 Canadian Shield – 1995 Canadian Shield – 1995 Hawaiian Islands – 1999 Hawaiian Islands – 1999 Southern Pine Forests – 2006, 2008 Southern Pine Forests – 2006, 2008 Great Lakes Region – 2006, 2008 Great Lakes Region – 2006, 2008 Interior British Columbia – 1987 Interior British Columbia – 1987 Alberta – Saskatchewan – 1988 Alberta – Saskatchewan – 1988 Proprietary Localized Regional Libraries – 1999, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010 Proprietary Localized Regional Libraries – 1999, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010

13. Species in FBRI Libraries Douglas-fir Douglas-fir Western hemlock Western hemlock Mountain hemlock Mountain hemlock Grand fir Grand fir White fir White fir Sub-alpine fir Sub-alpine fir Silver fir Silver fir Noble fir Noble fir Sitka spruce Sitka spruce Englemann spruce Englemann spruce White spruce White spruce Black spruce Black spruce Pacific yew Pacific yew Rocky mountain juniper Rocky mountain juniper Alaska yellow cedar Alaska yellow cedar Western red cedar Western red cedar Western larch Western white pine Ponderosa pine Lodgepole pine Jack pine Sugar pine Coast Redwood Eucalyptus grandis Eucalyptus saligna Eucalyptus deglupta Queensland maple Bigleaf maple Red Alder Black cottonwood Quaking aspen Tan oak

14. Regional Trends Site & Genetic Effects Silviculture Effects

15. 10-Meter Site Index Record Age Ring Count at 10 meter Height Record Age Ring Count at 10 meter Height Record Age Ring Count at 20 meter Height Record Age Ring Count at 20 meter Height Difference in Ring Count is 10m Site Index Difference in Ring Count is 10m Site Index 10m Site = 100 / Difference in Years 10m Site = 100 / Difference in Years = height growth in meters / decade = height growth in meters / decade 50yr Site = 30 + 10 * 10mSite 50yr Site = 30 + 10 * 10mSite 25yr Site = 30 + 5 * 10mSite 25yr Site = 30 + 5 * 10mSite Difference 10m Site Site 50yr Site 25yr 25 years 4.07055 16 years 6.29261 11 years 9.112175

19. What Models Provide Define & Quantify Sustainable Capacity Define & Quantify Sustainable Capacity Impact of Rotation Lengths Impact of Rotation Lengths Impacts of Early Silvicultural Gains Impacts of Early Silvicultural Gains Comparison of Silvicultural Systems Comparison of Silvicultural Systems Clearcut > Seed-Tree > Shelterwood > Selection Clearcut > Seed-Tree > Shelterwood > Selection Quantify Yields – Volume, Biomass, Carbon Quantify Yields – Volume, Biomass, Carbon Species Selection and Genetic Gains Species Selection and Genetic Gains Silvicultural Investment Alternatives Silvicultural Investment Alternatives Impacts of Riparian & Wildlife Constraints Impacts of Riparian & Wildlife Constraints Defensible Basis for Decision-making Defensible Basis for Decision-making FBRI-Certified Regional Species Libraries FBRI-Certified Regional Species Libraries

20. Conclusions Long-term Forest Planning & Investment Decisions Long-term Forest Planning & Investment Decisions The Tools and Methods Exist for Decision-making based 40 years of G&Y Research The Tools and Methods Exist for Decision-making based 40 years of G&Y Research The 2002 NSC Report identifies lack of R&D focus The 2002 NSC Report identifies lack of R&D focus A Working Forest reference point is needed A Working Forest reference point is needed Forest Industry in U.S. to Survive and Grow Forest Industry in U.S. to Survive and Grow Must Invest in On-going Research & Support Must Invest in On-going Research & Support Must have access to Technology & Education Must have access to Technology & Education Reference point for Forest Yield Capacities Reference point for Forest Yield Capacities

22. Professional Inventory / Planning Forester 40,000 – 300,000 Acre Tree Farm Typically One Person In Organization Typically One Person In Organization B.S. Degree from Forestry School B.S. Degree from Forestry School 3 – 15 Years Professional Experience 3 – 15 Years Professional Experience Reports Inventory & Harvest Plans Annually Reports Inventory & Harvest Plans Annually Responsible for Inventory Cruise & Depletions Responsible for Inventory Cruise & Depletions Responsible for Silvicultural Planning & Costs Responsible for Silvicultural Planning & Costs Responsible for Harvest Levels & Plan Responsible for Harvest Levels & Plan Responsible for Assessing All Constraints Responsible for Assessing All Constraints Knows the Sustainable Capacity of the Forest Knows the Sustainable Capacity of the Forest

23. Every Professional Forester must know: End of Sophomore Year Forest sampling (stands), Stand sampling (Plots), Sub-sampling (Trees, shrubs, snags) Forest sampling (stands), Stand sampling (Plots), Sub-sampling (Trees, shrubs, snags) Inventory maintenance (MS-Access), PC-based GIS, Acreage adjustments for roads and buffers Inventory maintenance (MS-Access), PC-based GIS, Acreage adjustments for roads and buffers Harvest Depletions & Annual Reporting Harvest Depletions & Annual Reporting Annual sampling frequency and intensity Annual sampling frequency and intensity Site capacity, distribution and verification Site capacity, distribution and verification Habitat classification and update methods Habitat classification and update methods

24. Every Professional Forester must know: End of Junior Year Inventory growth projection methods Inventory growth projection methods Applications, Constraints, Validation Applications, Constraints, Validation Silvicultural systems and yield differences Silvicultural systems and yield differences Clearcut regimes, preferred species & densities Clearcut regimes, preferred species & densities Seed Tree regimes, regeneration systems Seed Tree regimes, regeneration systems Shelterwood regimes, habitat implications Shelterwood regimes, habitat implications Selection regimes, single-tree versus group Selection regimes, single-tree versus group Forest health, vigor, regeneration, tolerance Forest health, vigor, regeneration, tolerance Site Preparation, Vegetation Management Site Preparation, Vegetation Management Thinning, Pruning & Fertilization Methods Thinning, Pruning & Fertilization Methods

25. Every Professional Forester must know: End of Senior Year Harvest scheduling methods linked to GIS Harvest scheduling methods linked to GIS Hydro, Wildlife, Watershed & Neighbors Hydro, Wildlife, Watershed & Neighbors Planning for 100 years versus 10 years Planning for 100 years versus 10 years Impact and silviculture of 2 nd & 3 rd rotations Impact and silviculture of 2 nd & 3 rd rotations Standards of merchandising and valuation Standards of merchandising and valuation Regulation by Area, Volume, Value or NPV Regulation by Area, Volume, Value or NPV Harvest polygons versus Stand polygons Harvest polygons versus Stand polygons Managing a Forest versus Managing a Stand Managing a Forest versus Managing a Stand

27. FBRI Structure 2002 - 2005 Research Program w/ Univ of Montana Research Program w/ Univ of Montana College of Forestry, offices at no cost College of Forestry, offices at no cost Kelsey Milner, Ph.D., endowed professor & host Kelsey Milner, Ph.D., endowed professor & host Jim Arney, Ph.D., volunteer biometrician Jim Arney, Ph.D., volunteer biometrician Chuck Vopicka, M.S., employee, technical support Chuck Vopicka, M.S., employee, technical support Graduate students, technical support services Graduate students, technical support services Operating Budget Operating Budget Initially $30,000 building to $100,000/yr Initially $30,000 building to $100,000/yr Endowment held by Univ. Montana Foundation Endowment held by Univ. Montana Foundation

28. FBRI Structure 2006 - 2010 Independent Research Corporation 501c3 Independent Research Corporation 501c3 IRS Status approved as of August 13, 2002 IRS Status approved as of August 13, 2002 Re-located to Western Oregon Re-located to Western Oregon Full-time M.S. Biometrician – Brian Kleinhenz Full-time M.S. Biometrician – Brian Kleinhenz Volunteer Biometricians: Volunteer Biometricians: Jim Arney, Ph.D. and Kelsey Milner, Ph.D. Jim Arney, Ph.D. and Kelsey Milner, Ph.D. Part-time Business Manager – JoAnn Arney Part-time Business Manager – JoAnn Arney Annual Income $140,000 (2007 – 2010) Annual Income $140,000 (2007 – 2010) Additional contractual Income - $50,000 /year Additional contractual Income - $50,000 /year

29. FBRI Structure 2011+ Independent Research Corporation 501c3 Independent Research Corporation 501c3 Re-located back to Western Montana Re-located back to Western Montana Contracted Ph.D. Biometrician – Jim Arney Contracted Ph.D. Biometrician – Jim Arney Contracted Technical Support – Chuck Vopicka Contracted Technical Support – Chuck Vopicka Contracted Workshop & Accounts – WF&CA Contracted Workshop & Accounts – WF&CA Contracted Web Support – Nora McDougall Contracted Web Support – Nora McDougall Contracted Software Support – Kevin Gehringer Contracted Software Support – Kevin Gehringer Contracted Endowment Mgmt – Ameriprise Contracted Endowment Mgmt – Ameriprise

30. FBRI Board of Directors 20102011 James D. Arney Dan Opalach Kelsey S. Milner Jim McWhorter Kim Iles Dave Walters Marc Vomocil Rob Taylor

31. FBRI 2011 Activities 2011 Funding Requests remain at $0.02/acre 2011 Funding Requests remain at $0.02/acre Board to develop draft 5-year plan - 1 st Qtr. Board to develop draft 5-year plan - 1 st Qtr. Advisory Committee becomes active Advisory Committee becomes active One member identified from each organization One member identified from each organization 5-year plan reviews – 2 nd and 3 rd Quarters 5-year plan reviews – 2 nd and 3 rd Quarters Workshop Schedules continue w/WF&CA Workshop Schedules continue w/WF&CA FPS Version 7.0 is completed & distributed FPS Version 7.0 is completed & distributed Ownership of FPS software transfers to FBRI Ownership of FPS software transfers to FBRI Full rights to databases & libraries transfers Full rights to databases & libraries transfers Year-end FBRI Meeting w/Final Plan Year-end FBRI Meeting w/Final Plan