1. Participatory Scenario Development and Sustainable Water Policies
Claudia Pahl-Wostl
Institute of Environmental Systems Research
University of Osnabrück
Coordinator HarmoniCOP
& Human Dimension in Water Management
Core Team HarmoniCA
COP

2. Overview Sustainable Water Policy & Scenarios Topics for the next call
Challenges
Linkages
European Policy Processes

3. What is policy?

4. Sustainable Water Policy
Todays problems are complex and have to be solved in a world with increasing uncertainty
Based on a polycentric understanding of policy making where different societal groups are involved and different measures are combined
Increasing uncertainties require innovation and flexible policy processes
Short term decisions need long term guidance

5. What is a scenario?

6. Scenarios
A scenario can be defined as an internally consistent pathway into the future.
It must be plausible within the context of the causal framework and the logic of the argumentation.
Scenarios suggest themselves as guiding principles to combine factual analysis derived from observation and modelling with the knowledge, subjective perceptions elicited from stakeholder groups.

7. Scenarios in Decision Making
Long term guidance – moving targets to guide short term decision making
Explore the possibilities of alternative futures
The policy relevance of scenarios depends on the process how they are derived

8. Scenarios as link between factual knowledge and subjective perceptions

9. Models and information in processes of social learning
Analysis Actor Network
- participatory Process
Analysis Data
“Perceptions
Mental Models"
"Facts"
Model Structure
Scenarios

10. Social Learning (HarmoniCOP – Harmonizing Collaborative Planning / www
Social Learning (HarmoniCOP – Harmonizing Collaborative Planning / www. harmonicop.info)
Explore the role of social learning (recognize individual framings, trust as base for cooperation, interdependencies) in river basin management.
Improve knowledge about and current practices in stakeholder and public participation and the use of ICT tools based on the notion of social learning.
Produce practical guidance in the form of a handbook and training courses.
COP

11. Topics in the next call Scenarios for Water Demand and Availability
Methods for Integrated Water Resources Management and Transboundary Issues
Water Stress
Complementary – at different scales in time, space, issues

12. Topics - Scales
Scenarios
MIWRM
Stress

13. Some potential Linkages

14. Water Shortage – Negotiating Integrated Solutions

15. Scenarios for Water Stress in Europe
Alcamo et al, 2001

16. Water Stress = Water Demand of a region exceeds Supply
Management
Options
Changes in
Lifestyle
Technology
Institutions
Diversion
of rivers
Agriculture
Industry
Households
Rivers
Rain

17. Case Metropolitan Area of Barcelona
The situation
Migration of the wealthy to the outer city belt
Poorer residents in city center financing development of belt.
Water comsumption per inhabitant - City 120 l/day, - Belt 200 l/day
Drought conditions increasing

18. Water supply in Ter reservoir
The solutions under consideration
Technical: Diversion of the Ebro river
Negotiated social: Formation of neighbourhood groups, new equitable pricing regimes for fair demand management (e.g. block pricing with low price for basic demand)
Integration of policies - landuse, regional planning and water management policies

19. How to cope with varying demand and supply?

20. Lake Zürich The situation
Supply capacity designed to meet maximum daily demand
One severe drought condition in 1976 caused decision to increase capacity
Demand dropped and resulted in unused capacities.
Typical situation in many parts of eastern Germany – who pays? 1 9 2 4 6 8
2000
Year
Capacity and Demand (relative)
Peak
Demand
Supply
Capacity
Average
Alternative management strategies under consideration
Negotiated social: Flexible regimes of coordinating supply management with demand management. Use pricing to manage average demand. Use information campaigns to manage peak demand.

21. Challenges for Water Resources Management
Tradition in the engineering sciences
Technical approach to problem solving
Based on the idea of prediction and control of the environment by technology (e.g. waste water treatment, flood control, water supply)
Include the “human dimension”
Develop integrated, flexible solutions

22. Urgent needs for research and implementation
In the light of increasing uncertainty adaptive and participatory management is crucial!
Requires an improved understanding of the complex dynamics of societal decision making processes and the role of information therein.
Scenario may provide guidance to “avoid undesirable future developments” and/or “avoid lock-in developments” by choosing short-term decisions that maintain maximum of degrees of freedom and flexibility in the future.

23. Scenarios - Challenges
Long-term scenarios (alternative futures) not yet used in water policy
Integration across scales
Combination of modelling and participatory approaches
Identification of potential non-linearities in future developments, increase in vulnerability

24. Water Stress Challenges
Integration of technologies, economic instruments and institutional changes for developing innovative solutions to dealing with water stress.
Development of procedures for the „fair“ allocation between competing demand.
Development of methods for the participatory assessement and implemenation of solutions.

25. Policy Processes European Water Framework Directive (WFD)
European Water Initiative (EWI)

26. WFD – Some challenges
Implementation given the current institutional structure and management styles
Extension of the EU – Candidate countries
Major investments in infrastructure
Different culture in policy and participation

27. EWI – some Challenges Not binding for the countries involved
Incentive will partly be monetary and major investments will be made
Stakeholder driven process
Huge cultural and political differences

28. Concluding remarks Water is the resource problem of the 21st century
Major investments of more required in the next decade to achieve the Johannesburg targets and to guarantee that access save access to water to a growing human population.
Who will guarantee that the investments are used to increase economic, ecologic and social sustainability?
Europe is in a unique position in bringing together expertise from science, business and politics
Europe should take a leading role in managing water resources and build new partnerships.
Research on the topics open for the next call well embedded into policy processes can make a major contribution for this to happen.