1. Yellow Fever Vaccine Tender 2010-2012
Pre Tender Meeting
UNICEF Supply Division
Copenhagen 10-11th December 2008
Siri Bjornstad

2. Assessment of effectiveness of vaccine procurement Principles & Objectives
1. Continued, sustainable supply
2. Quality vaccines (WHO pre-qualification)
3. Multiple manufacturers per vaccine
4. Affordable prices
Assessment ( )
1. Progress, but reliability still needs improvement & insufficient global availability
2. No major recall or vaccine-caused AEFI
3. Three manufacturers
4. Change of presentations influenced price increases. Expectation is that prices will stabilize

3. Yellow Fever supply market
Maturing, yet fragile market
3 manufacturers currently supplying WHO pre-qualified products
5, 10, 20 and 50 dose presentations WHO pre-qualified products
More manufacturers seeking WHO pre-qualification
Since mid 2007 demand has exceeded supply, and supply issues have decreased and delayed availability
In 2008 high number and size of YF outbreaks contributed to strained supply situation

4. Yellow Fever demand profile
Demand for routine and campaigns have historically been tendered separately and have been contracted under separate LTAs due to different demand drivers:
Routine:
Yellow fever belt in Africa
Country driven demand, GAVI approvals per country
5 and 10 dose presentation preferred
Stable demand with slight annual increase
Campaigns (preventive and emergency outbreak):
Preventive campaigns in 12 West African countries + annual emergency stockpile (global)
Demand supported by GAVI financed Investment Case; Programme (ICG) approves request for vaccine
10 and 20 dose presentation preferred, 50 dose presentation acceptable to certain extent
Preventive campaign demand higher than anticipated, increasing
Emergency outbreak response – urgency and need for stand-by capacity, unpredictable demand

5. YF routine: delivered and forecasted
Increase with GAVI support from 2003
Nigeria make up 45% of demand (forecast 2009)
3 largest countries (Nigeria, DRC, and Ghana) make up 70% of demand (forecast 2009)
Routine vaccine is 60% GAVI financed. Remaining 40% is government co-financing or government funded
GAVI funding approved through tender period, but co-financing introduces some uncertainty
Forecast trend shows stable demand
LTAs in place=> slight adjustment in quantity and presentation demand to be included in upcoming Yellow Fever Tender

6. YF routine: Historic forecast accuracy
Change in 1 country demand decreased qty in 2005 and 2006 (Nigeria and GAVI approval)
Supply shortage decreased quantity procured in 2007 and 2008
forecast figures based on UNICEF 2009 Country Forecasts and GAVI approvals

7. Evolution of funding for Emergency response and Preventive campaigns
: Annual emergency stockpiles
Annual GAVI financed stockpiles of 6 mio ds for outbreak response from 2003
Quantity not used for outbreaks was delivered for preventive campaigns the following year
Firm, 1 year contracts
: Emergency Stockpile and Preventive Campaigns
6 mio dose stockpile continued
Preventive campaigns for W. Africa countries begin
GAVI funded under YF Investment Case
: Emergency Stockpile and Preventive Campaigns
Extension of GAVI YF Investment Case not approved in full in October Board. Additional approved and decision for deferred.
Preventive+stockpile quantities for to be tendered for in upcoming tender (January 2009)

8. YF Stockpile and YF IC deliveries
2007:
2.1 mio ds outbreak response
14.2 mio ds preventive
2008:
9.5 mio ds outbreak response
10 mio ds preventive
(assuming no further outbreaks in 2008)
Emergency stockpile to be available per 1 January each year
Carry over unused emergency stockpile quantities from one year to preventive campaigns the following year

9. Emergency Stockpile and Preventive Campaigns demand scenario, based on current approved funding
Additional 2009 qty’s due to funding approval following GAVI Board meeting in Oct-08 to be requested under RFP => 8-9 million doses, 10 and 20 dose preferred, 50 dose acceptable
2009 emergency stockpile on contract
2009 preventive qty’s partially on contract;
GAVI has approved funding for preventive campaigns and emergency stockpiles for 2009 and 2010

10. Upcoming Tender Period
Emergency Stockpile and Preventive Campaigns demand scenario, based on current approved funding
2010 qty’s for both routine, emergency stockpile and preventive campaigns will be included in upcoming tender
Upcoming Tender Period
GAVI has approved funding for preventive campaigns and emergency stockpiles for 2009 and 2010

11. Upcoming Tender Period
Emergency Stockpiles and Preventive Campaigns demand scenario, as per programmatic plans in the GAVI Investment Case
Upcoming Tender Period
Funding for 2011 and 2012 emergency and preventive campaign quantities are not yet approved by GAVI
emergency stockpile + preventive campaign qty’s will be included in requested quantities in upcoming tender
For 2011 and 2012 qty’s, timing of award and final award qty’s will depend on funding status
2009 emergency stockpile on contract
2009 preventive qty’s partially on contract;

12. Table of tender quantities 2010-2012
Vaccine demand quantities for both Routine, Emergency, and Preventive will be included in the Yellow Fever Vaccine Tender
One set of resulting LTAs will be established with manufacturers

13. UNICEF VACCINES
Thank You!

14. Total tender quantities 2010-2012