1. Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham
Current Debates
Benjamin Graham
Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham

2. Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham
Today’s Plan
Today’s topics:
Automation & Employment
Shifting prospects for globalization
Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham

3. Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham
Reading Quiz (1)
When Cowen says that “Industrial revolution comparisons are not comforting,” what does he mean?
A. The industrial revolution was an important cause of both World Wars
B. The industrial revolution never lead to higher wages
C. The industrial revolution caused a spike in global food prices
D. It took around sixty years for wage gains to take hold after the industrial revolution
Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham

4. Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham
Reading Quiz (2)
Which regional group is considering a *NEW* passport that would cover most countries in the region?
A. ASEAN (SE Asia)
B. AU (African Union)
C. South America
D. LAC (Central America, South America, and the Carribean)
Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham

5. Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham
Reading Quiz (3)
In the piece about “Strong demand poor people see somehow bad for poor people” focuses on which product?
A. Quinoa
B. Coffee
C. Taro root
D. Palm oil
E. Cashews
Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham

6. Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham
Why start with supply and demand?
Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham

7. Automation & Employment
Why start with supply and demand?
Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham

8. Automation & Employment
Categories of jobs on the chopping block:
Drivers, call centers, paralegals
Shift into services puts an emphasis on “soft” skills
What can humans do that an algorithm can’t?
Why start with supply and demand?
Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham

9. Automation & Employment
What jobs are most complementary to artificial intelligence and increased computing power?
Why start with supply and demand?
Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham

10. Globalization still marching forward
We haven’t thought much about rising trade barriers in the past 25 years.
Rich countries are backing away from integration
Poor & middle income countries are steaming ahead
Why start with supply and demand?
Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham

11. The US Steps Out of the Driver’s Seat
After the US pulled out of the TPP, the other 11 countries are forging ahead without us.
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership
China is working on a deal with 16 other Asian nations
Why start with supply and demand?
Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham

12. The New Multilateral Future
What are the implications if rich countries backslide on integration while poorer countries keep pursuing it?
A. How do we expect the TPP may be revised now that the US is not a part of it?
B. How will the revised TPP affect the U.S.?
Why start with supply and demand?
Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham

13. The Research Frontier in IPE
New Questions:
How is South-South trade and FDI different from North-South trade and FDI?
Are the causes of economic closure simply the reverse of the causes of economic openness?
How do high level of economic interdependence affect security competition?
How can nation states govern multinational corporations?
Older questions:
What are “good” domestic institutions for growth?
How can international institutions shape state, firm, and individual behavior?
Why start with supply and demand?
Lecture 25: IPE and War Benjamin Graham