1. Rhine – ICPR approach towards climate adaptation
International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine
Adrian Schmid-Breton (ICPR – Coblence)
Climate Workshop – WG F 12, , Brussels

2. The Rhine catchment area
9 countries:
Italy, Austria, Liechtenstein,
Switzerland, France,
Germany, Belgium,
Luxemburg, the Netherlands
&: European Union
Within the ICPR the States are coordinating their actions and exchanging infomation regarding the implementation of FD.

3. …towards an adaptation strategy for the Rhine basin
Starting point for climate change discussions within the ICPR: Ministerial Meeting in 2007
Order: Creation of a "Study of Scenarios for the Discharge Regime of the Rhine" as basis for the development of an adaptation strategy (strategy will be taken into account in second RBMP and FRMP)
Establishment of an Expert Group (KLIMA) under the responsibility of the Working Group on Floods

4.  () …towards an adaptation strategy for the Rhine basin
Summary synthesis of available literature
(ICPR–Publication 2009 – No. 174)
Developing hydrological scenarios with the help of water discharge models: Study of Scenarios for the Discharge Regime of the Rhine
(ICPR-Publication No. 188)
Assessing scenarios in terms of impact on quality status and uses (ongoing process)
Identifying possibilities to mitigate impact in cooperation with the ICPR WGs Floods, Substances and Ecology and developing an adaptation strategy until (ongoing process) 
()
First review on available literature and findings on CC.
First basin wide study on the impacts of climate change, based for the most part on the results of the multi model and international study of the Commission for the hydrology of the Rhine: Rheinblick2050.
Based on these two reports, which are available on our internet site, we are now assessing the impacts of these scenarios and trying to define adaptation measures.

5. Impacts of climate changes on water management
Climate projections (until 2050 and 2100) show:
Rise of winter/summer air temperatures
Precipitation: wetter winters, drier summers
Possible consequences:
Winter: increase of runoff (floods)
Summer: decrease of runoff (low water)
These are the very simplified results. In reality the report consist of a first consistent study for the whole basin presenting detailed results for observed (20th) and predicted (21th, near and remote future) hydrological parameters (annual average run off, flood run offs for the three different scenarios, low water) in the form of tendencies or range of change.
First consistent study for the whole Rhine catchment
(different parameters, 20th and 21st cent., focus on ranges of change)!

6. Preparation of the 4th phase: Potential impacts of climate change
Every Working group (Ecology, Substances, Flood/Low water) are assessing the scenarios regarding their thematic.
ICPR Climate Workshop (January 2013)
Assessment and prioritization of measures (scale: Rhine basin)
All part findings will be integrated in a common strategy (interdisciplinary approach)
What are we doing now?

7. Working group H “Floods”
Winter: increasing runoff (floods)
mean discharge until 2050: 0 to +20%
mean flood discharge until 2050: -5 to +25%
Summer: decreasing runoff (low water)
mean discharge until 2050: Summer +/-10%
Aspects to consider:
What does flood protection and flood risk management in the Rhine catchment look like?
Is the existing level of protection sufficient when taking into account these developments?
Which parameters should be determined as benchmarks/ guidance values? Eg. MHQ or extreme floods?
Which assets can be more at risk in the future (vulnerability)?
How shall we deal with future low water periods? Etc.
So here you see how based on range of change for different parameters, we are trying now to detect the impacts on flood risk and low water management and define possible measures.

8. Working group H “Floods”
Fixing of „vulnerability guide values“:
Based on values (parameters: MQ, Qx, NM7Q, …) connected to % of change (ranges).
e.g. For a city on the Rhine  Q100 = 2000 m3/s + 10% to 20% change in the run-off
Does this brings problems?
Selection of adaptation measures (National and European climate change adaptation strategies/guidelines assessment; themes: flood and low water):
measures carried out (also the ones from the ICPR Action Plan on Floods since 1998)
measures foreseen by the States (also in their Flood Risk Management Plan that are being prepared)
Preparation of the Flood Risk Management Plan for the Rhine basin
ICPR Climate Workshop (January 2013)
How we do we are defining measures concretely?
We fix vulnerability guiding values and look at the effects.
We include low water management measures.
We are currently doing a review of already implemented national and international measures (see report 200 on the action plan on floods, since 1998; „climate check of existing measures“). We made a synthesis of measures which are listed in european and national guidelines or strategies. We are now defining the next FRMP for the Rhine basin. Therefore we use the different types of measures and the requirements from the FD. In the first FRMP the effects of CC will be indicated and we will pay attention not to integrate measures that can reinforced the effects of Climate change (no regret measures). Climate change measures will be part of a own strategy and be integrated in the second RBMP and second FRMP.
Based on our first review on the measures we can already say that:
- The new balance of the APF shows that we have done big efforts since 1998 to mitigate flood risk (measures are pointing in the good direction) but that we have to continue our efforts!
- A lot of measures from the APF - sometimes already planned - have to be further implemented because they have transnational effects like the creation of retention basins, dike relocation, renaturation measures, improve the flood forecast, warning and information on the Rhine and tributaries (e.g. we are currently developping a new flood hazard and risk atlas), etc.
- There is several common measures for Flood risk management and low water management: flood forecast, public information, retention basins, etc.
More connection have to be done with other ICPR thematics: water quality, ecology, …. But also shipping, agriculture, land planning, ….
The climate workshop will further help us to gain information on adaptation measures and strategies from other river commissions or stakeholders.

9. Internet: www.iksr.org Phone: 0049-(0)261-94252-0
Thank you for your attention. If you have questions feel free to ask me or write me.
Climate and Action Plan on Floods Reports are on our website and I will put them on circa.
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