1. Declaration of Conflict of Interest
Allan Davison
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*: No
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment

2. Allan Davison www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition adavison@sfu.ca
Making hunger history?
kwash; out of teens, PhD aa in urine. Weekly ward rounds. Lethal disease 1 of 4 didn’t make it. Me sick & angry. So after retirement, I was asked if I wanted to help develop SFU’s first program in Global Health.
please disturb! 2

3. Task of making hunger history-MDG1
Where are we?
Much better since the MDGs, but far from making hunger history
Where are we going?
HOW FAR? STEADY. But UNDERFUNDING MOST goals will be mostly met, close to schedule. But even if MDGHALF WAY! That’s the plan
Like SLAVERY global-scale hunger will be shameful history. After 30-50y
Does NOT ASSUME incr aid. Which 5-10 nations will be paying their share.
BETTER AID we see clearly what kinds of aid work & what doesn’t
Hunger on a global scale will disappear,
in 2 or 3 more 15y plans. New initiatives
What’s working, what’s not?
Only 5-10 nations of 23 will reach 0.7% of
GDP. None will forgo unfair trade rules

4. Aid isn’t working Trade for profit instead
Profit motive hasn’t worked - aid is needed
Trillions wasted! - 1 b still starving
V little is wasted
Population outstrips food supply
Malthus is wrong
Most aid corrupt dictators
Corrupt multinationals
diagnosis wrong, treatment .. L based on ideology R on data. Greed-driven unfettered trade is best for everyone.
Is billions starving true
Is it true about corrupt dictators?
3) Who’s giving what in aid? We ca see that US, Canada, and Japan will continue to diminish
MDGs won’t be achieved
Broken promises
Never promised 0.7% and anyway …
You did so!
… we give more than anyone!
½ what EU gives!
“Trade not aid”
Trade barriers. Fair trade & aid
2008 recession
“They” didn’t cause it 4

5. World GDP $PPP per cap (est) 1500-2100
Manifest destiny of world - wealth
China +
India ?
World GDP $PPP per cap (est)
Boy isn’t free enterprise GREAT?
TRICKLE down. KOFI Anand: FLOOD from the poorest to the richest.
“RISING TIDE lifts all ships” neglects the “poverty TRAP”.
Trap because they can’t attain self-sufficiency, to start up the ladder of development will require external help.

6. Number of malnourished world-wide
See also: WHO, UN, WB, USDA, CIA, OECD, IFPRI
UNICEF 2009
Food insufficient for sustenance
water-carrier
Here are the DATA for those caught in the property TRAP.
They remain there because effective aid hasn’t reached them
I’m going to show you 2 more views of this SAME DATA next selected for optimism

7. World % undernourished
The MDGs are to ”decrease the %” from 22-11%
When we get to 11% (before 2020) The next slide shows number fed & number hungry on the same slide
You should be able to figure out why the remaining 11% will be easier
Absolute vs relative. Let’s look at good and bad news on same slide.
22%
same data
14%

8. Number fed & under-nourished worldwide
Prediction
millions
Target
REALISTIC VIEW # fed is rocketing up # hungry isn’t changing much! => more wealth more spread out even if no fewer hungry.
33%
14%
11% 6% 8 8

9. Last 2 or 3 points are projections
Percentage stunted
60%
Africa
Asia
40%
Latin Am
If we viewed world as a whole, Asia dominates
Africa is pulled down by 5-7 nations, mostly torn by conflict
except the first data slide For the world, the absolute values are decreasing for almost all measures
This is true across 50 databases, using different measures, compiled by different agencies
The data show mostly met, most places, almost on time
Before MID CENTURY
20%
1980 & every 5 years
Last 2 or 3 points are projections

10. Paying for total strangers to eat?}
Not us, not if it goes to corrupt dictators” 
NORWEGIAN said: Our own people have homes to live in, food, health care. We still want to help people, so we have to give it to other countries.
For the bottom 9 Official development aid, partic agric aid has dropped steadily.
1010

11. “Phantom aid”, the wasted 47%
“Development aid”, not spent on poverty or development
Lost to: Inefficiency
Unfair trade
Emergency aid Refugees
Tied to benefit rich & Debt relief
Refers to
ODA, not MDGs
Real aid 53%
This shows that a lot of aid is WASTED. GOVT IS TRAPPED in inefficient processes. We know where it goes. But no significant amount goes to corrupt DICTATORS
60% of US ODA goes to Israel & Iraq

12. Corrupt? Dictators? Rich...
Accept personal & campaign “contributions” peddling influence. Could stop bribery at home & abroad by abolishing secret a/c
wikipedia
Lockheed
Swiss Air
Con you name 5 corrupt dictators in countries receiving aid? Lockheed: Paid off Leaders in Japan, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Kashoggi got $106m, Netherlands (Prince Bernard [Q Juliana] $1.1m). A former Canad PM got $75k, Karl Hans Schreiber says he paid $300k. Both impoverish people. The poorest don’t need money: seeds, ARVs, nets, fertilizers, water, drugs. Rich countries could solve it in a week: transparency in international deals and banking.
... & Poor
$10k corrupt dictators
$1000k presidents, PMs, bureaucrats
$100k bureaucrats
Billions MNCs
Accept “bribes” for trade concessions. Their people suffer, & hate them 12

13. We know what works: Paul Collier Unrealistic? Let’s see ...
Transparent & accountable , open bids
Partnerships not paternalism
Goals, objectives, timed milestones
Strategies revised annually by both partners
Externally monitored. No political pressure
Sustainable emphasis on poverty, agriculture
Serves recipient needs, not donor / ideology
Firm long-term commitments: MV, Grameen
For many people Bottom Billion is the most enlightening and convincing book on what works and doesn’t.
Paul Collier
Unrealistic? Let’s see ... 13

14. Beyond MDGs: amazing changes:
The Millennium Village project
Grameen Family of social enterprises
Billionaire philanthropists & foundations
Perfect storm of ASTONISHING developments! Raj Patel, Jeffrey Sachs, Dambisa Moyo, Muhammad Yunus, Vandana Shiva, Paul Collier, Joe Kasonde, Tom Smith, Vic Neufeld
Instant spread of innovations: agric, educ, &c
Passionate & influential voices for change
Scientists & students bring energy to future 14

15. Passionate renegades
In 2000 I didn’t know any of these faces. Now I’m guessing you know at least 7 of them. If you don’t, get reading. 2 in the CORRIDORS You are sorely out of touch of some of the most important ongoing initiatives that will determine the future. Paul Collier, Raj Patel, 15

16. The End adavison@sfu.ca www.sfu.ca/global-hunger16

17. Number stunted 200m Asia 100m Africa Latin Am 1980 & every 5 years
Asia
100m
Africa
World still looks like Asia, but Africa is going the wrong way. Pulled down by about 7 large conflict-torn states
Latin Am
1980 & every 5 years 17 17