1. Presentation by: Ryan Schuetzler & Jeffrey Proudfoot November 17, 2010

2. Gianfranco approached the J
Gianfranco approached the J. Paul Getty Museum in California and offered to sell a Kouros statue from 600 B.C.
A thorough investigation of the statue proceeded, and after 14 months, its credibility was verified.
Various individuals began to take issue with the statue. The were not sure why it seemed illegitimate, but they had a hunch it was a fake.
After inspecting the paper trail, it was ultimately found to be a fraud.
Why had a scientific-approach failed to identify this statue as being fallacious?

3. The following experiment further illustrates this phenomenon.
Researchers at the University of Iowa conducted the card experiment.
4 decks are on the table, 2 blue and 2 red.
A participant turns over one card at a time, and the card displayed will either win or lose the player money.

4. The red decks are a minefield, the blue decks result in a steady gain over time.
Participants had a hunch around 50 cards.
After about 80 cards, people figure out that the red decks are loaded.
They hooked participants up to machines to monitor sweat glands, and participants showed signs of stress when selecting a red card by the 10th turn.
Why does this happen?

5. Adaptive Unconscious Strategy
Conscious strategy takes 80 cards
Subconscious strategy takes 10

6. Adaptive Unconscious
The adaptive unconscious is very good at sizing up the world, recognizing danger, setting goals, etc.

7. Students viewed a 3 10-second videos of a teacher without sound and asked them to rate this teacher.
Still effective with only 5-second clips, and not too far off with only 2-seconds.
The results were the same as students that had that professor for an entire semester.

8. Why do parents tell their kids to…
…look before you leap… …stop and think... …don’t judge a book by its cover…

9. 3 Purposes of Blink
Convince readers that decisions can be made very quickly and be every bit as good as decisions made cautiously and deliberately.
Answer the question regarding when to trust our instincts, and when to be weary of them.
Convince readers that our snap judgments and first impressions can be educated and controlled.

11. Millennium Challenge 2002
Paul Van Riper leads Red Team using tactics unforeseen by Blue Team
Burden of information & Analysis Paralysis

13. Questions
How can we relate the ideas of Blink to doing research in general?
- Pepsi is built to shine in a sip test. Reactions to the single sip are going to be different than reactions to a whole can. p
Make sure that when you operationalize your studies, you’re measuring what you want to know. “Inadequate preoperational explication of constructs.”
Be sure to look at all potential confounds (Brandy example. The packaging was a confound)
Sins of omission vs. sins of commission in the statistical sense
Be careful in designing research that you are taking into account the potential Blink judgments of subjects, and also how your design can influence those judgments

14. Questions How can we relate the ideas of Blink to your research?
“Once the shooting started, all of that information became a burden. I can understand how all the concepts that Blue was using translate into planning for an engagement. But does it make a difference in the moment? I don’t believe it does.” p. 143
“When we talk about analytic versus intuitive decision-making, neither is good or bad. What is bad is if you use either of them in inappropriate circumstances.” p. 159

15. Questions Why did we read this book?
Daily Telegraph: “Rarely have such bold claims been advanced on the basis of such flimsy evidence”
Contrast: Some very good examples of scientific research, coupled with the overbroad generalizations of the book as a whole
An example of how to make ridiculous hypotheses on the basis of sound theory

16. Questions
General comments?