1. World Steel Association (worldsteel)
Contribution to MJunction – 7 June 2018
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2. Introduction

3. Antitrust guidelines
Most nations impose constraints on the conduct of market participants through antitrust laws. Violation of these laws can result in civil and criminal penalties. Agreements to fix prices, limit production or divide markets are typical of the activities that most clearly violate antitrust laws.
worldsteel has printed antitrust guidelines and these are read before all member attending meetings reminding everyone of the rules.
worldsteel activities must not serve as an opportunity for improper conduct among two or more of its members, either during meetings or related social events.

4. worldsteel introduction

5. What are our key goals?
Act as the focal point for the steel industry providing global leadership on all major strategic issues impacting the industry, particularly focusing on economic, environmental and social sustainability
Deliver benchmarking analysis and drive global improvement initiatives in the areas of environmental protection, technology, safety and people development
Promote global market development opportunities for steel and promote steel to the world at large
Provide on a timely basis world-class economic data and analysis on the global steel industry and its value chain, as well as assessments on life cycle aspects of steel
Increase awareness, understanding and support for the steel industry amongst all external stakeholders and key target audiences worldwide
Promote market competition that is free of government interventions preventing fair trade.

6. Membership today covers every region of the world

7. Contents
Long term sustainability
The safety turnaround
The challenge of environmental sustainability
The steel use turnaround

8. Social sustainability

9. Key Industry Safety Metrics
LTIFR – consistent decline
since 2004
FFR – plateaued for much of last decade
Some evidence for improvement in last 5 year

10. Process Safety Causes of fatalities
Process safety is a blend of engineering and management skills focused on preventing catastrophic accidents and near misses, particularly structural collapse, explosions, fires and toxic releases associated with loss of containment of energy or dangerous substances such as chemicals and petroleum products.

11. Environmental sustainability

12. Ways of visualising steel’s total CO2 + others = GHG footprint
Environment
LCA analysis takes account of credits from recycling etc.
BOS/EAF Volume has increased
by 166%, emissions by 77%
Steel is now more CO2 efficient
Different ways to visualise, for example LCA takes a broader approach that gives credit for recycling and the prevention of further emission. Useful part of the story though we will be measured on actual emm to atmosphere, under current rules etc. Not all bad news, while we have increased prod by 166%, emissions gone up 77%

13. Improving performance levels – V1 S1x3 and IEA 2DS
Environment
CO2 emissions linked to best expected future demand leads to a slow but continuous growth in CO2 emissions form the industry. This includes the benefit form technology shifts in favour of EAF, as well as CCSU opportunities.
ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO EXAMPLE

14. Improving performance levels – V1 S1x3 and IEA 2DS
Environment
Super-imposing the expectation linked to the 2 degree scenario on the future path, shows that the steel industry will require breakthrough in the technology of steelmaking in order to reduce CO2 emissions. This will take time and investment.
ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO EXAMPLE

15. Improving performance levels – V1 S1x3 and IEA 2DS
Environment
However, if the industry can use existing best practice to all produce at the level of the most efficient 15%, the industry buys another 10 years or so, in which to move research to solutions of steelmaking with lower CO2 emissions.
ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO EXAMPLE

16. Improving performance levels – V1 S1x3 and IEA 2DS
Environment
Applying best practice now will (just) keep our heads above water in medium term
Participating in this approach will help the SA Steel sector to improve efficiency and competitiveness.
ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO EXAMPLE

17. The steel use turnaround

18. Steel intensity show the impact of product improvement
Circular Economy
Intensity of steel use is defined as the amount of steel required in order to generate one unit of GDP (globally). It is clear that this has come down by about 30% between 1980 and 2000, with some recovery after Even today, after the China recovery, steel use is only about 90 percent of that in We can expect this to decline again as China stabilises. IT is the result of better stronger steels, more developed economies with declining expenditure on infrastructure and improved design in using steel.
Source: worldsteel

19. Circular economy principles will impact on steel demand
Reduce
Reuse
Remanufacture
Recycle
Impact on steel demand
Lower steel intensity
Longer life of steel containing goods
Reduced demand for steel containing goods
Less scrap
Because steel as a product is so reusable and recyclable, we believe this trend is a significant trends to watch. All reuse pushes out future demand for new steel, so decision around new steel production developments need to be well considered.
Impact on raw materials
Increase scrap supply
New applications to enable the circular economy

20. Global Overview Steel demand, finished steel (SRO April 2018 and MTF March 2018)
Circular Economy
* : Growth rates based on adjusted Chinese crude steel production for 2016

21. The Indian context

22. Asia Steel demand, finished steel (SRO April 2018)
Now moving to other Asian countries.
India
The Indian economy is stabilizing from the shock of currency reform and GST implementation.
The upturn is led mostly by domestic factors with tailwind from the good performance of the global economy. The recovery was sparked by a revival in investment led by the public sector and signs of improvement in private consumption. Private investment has yet to pick up.
Extensive Infrastructure plans and affordable housing program will boost construction in However, rising fiscal deficit numbers could prove to be a constraint.
Manufacturing wise, both capital goods and consumer durables will like to show healthy growth thank to the latent demand from a low base. The automobile sector will continue its expansion trend in 2018.
ASEAN
Steel demand in the ASEAN 5 countries dipped in 2017 due to slow construction activities and heavy destocking in some countries. Indonesia and Philippines, driven by massive infrastructure projects, were the two countries that could keep positive growth in 2017.
In 2018/19, steel demand is expected to regain the strong growth momentum backed by infrastructure investment and also benefitting from the strong global economy. Steel demand in the ASEAN countries is expected to show above 6% growth in 2018 and 2019.
Japan
The Japanese economy is expected to report a moderate expansion backed by government stimulus and improving business sentiment. While steel demand is being supported by urban redevelopment programs, preparation for 2020 Olympics, up-front demand before the consumption tax implementation, at the same time, Japan’s steel demand growth is limited by structural factors like labour shortage, which constrains construction activities.
South Korea
Despite improved consumer sentiment and moderate recovery of consumption, South Korea’s steel demand is suffering from high consumer debts, weakening construction and a depressed shipbuilding sector. Uncertainty related to the North Korean nuclear issue continues to linger.
Note. ASEAN (5): Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam
* : Growth rates based on adjusted Chinese crude steel production for 2016