1. Projections of EC GHG emissions 2008-2012
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Projections of EC GHG emissions
Brussels, 29 September 2006
Dr. Erasmia Kitou
DG ENV Unit C.1 ‘Climate strategy, International Negotiations and Monitoring of EU Action’

2. Outline Actual and projected emissions Sectoral trends
Role of major EU directives
Indicative greenhouse gas trends

3. 2006 Commission Progress Report
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2006 Commission Progress Report
Information submitted by June 6th, 2006
Main source of information: 4th National Communications, Reports on Demonstrable Progress
Publication of report: October 2006
PRELIMINARY findings…
Sources: primarily 4NC, DPR; no updates for MS with no new projections; in absence of 4NC/DPR: national CC programs, official submissions to EC
MS commenting round complete, comments now being incorporated as far as possible.
Comments on Country Profiles for X, X and X . General nature of comments:

4. The EU’s Kyoto challenge until 2012
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The EU’s Kyoto challenge until 2012

5. Need to strengthen domestic action
– 1.6 %
-1.6 %
-5.2 %
– 5.2 %

6. Projection weaknesses
Reasons for change:
Underestimated emission growth, particularly in the transport and energy sectors
Overestimated effectiveness of emission reduction policies
Removal of “with additional measures” scenario
Adjustment of base year
Revised emission factors

7. CO2 emissions projected for 2020

8. Sectoral trends: /

9. EU15: Need for new innovative measures
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EU15: Need for new innovative measures
CCPM: “definition…. Estimated to account for x Mt of PAM savings (X%)
e.g. Of CCPMs from CCPM matrix
Source of Oeko data
Addition of extra CCPM; no data on Energy end-use and energy services Directive yet
Compare savings to last year’s
Source: ECCP PAMs database (Oeko)

10. Energy and Transport responsible for rising CO2 emissions

11. EU-15 CH4 emissions

12. Conclusions
Transport and energy sectors continues to be the major problem in tackling GHG emissions
Despite existing and planned efforts CO2 emissions are on the rise (energy and transport main culprits)
Relatively positive trends observed in terms of other GHG emissions
Climate policies contribution to reduction of other air pollutants uncertain
Planned policies and measures cannot provide adequate reductions?
Swift and efficient implementation of existing and additional measures needed to reach Kyoto target and achieve reduction of other air pollutants
Need for uniform reporting of projected emissions

14. EU 15 / EU 25:Projected Progress
With Kyoto mechanisms
1990/base year
Mt CO2 eq.
2010
%Change
Aggregate of EU-15 MS with measures projections
4269.4
4132.9
-3.2%
Aggregate of EU-15 MS with additional measures projections
3961.1
-7.2%
Aggregate of EU-25 MS with measures projections
5294.2
4938.7
-7.0%
Aggregate of EU-25 MS with additional measures projections
4756.7
-10.2%

15. With existing measures
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With existing measures
With additional measures
With all measures and KMs
With all measures and KMs and carbon sinks
Figure 4.3 Relative gaps (over-delivery or shortfall) between greenhouse gas projections based on domestic policies and measures and 2010[1] targets for EU-15 Member States including the effects of Kyoto mechanisms and net emissions and removals from carbon sinks.
Note: All EU-15 Member States provided projections assuming existing domestic policies and measures. Several countries provided projections with additional domestic policies and measures. The effect of the Kyoto mechanisms is shown separately for the ten countries that intend to use them for reaching their target data. For more information see Chapter 7. Projections for Spain are available for CO2 only. Data on the net effect of emissions and removals from carbon sinks under Article 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol were provided by ten countries and were considered where available. Adjustments of the reduction target due to Article 3.7 were performed for Portugal, UK and the Netherlands.
Source: EEA.
[1] In the Council decision (2002/358/EC) on the approval by the EU of the Kyoto Protocol the various commitments of the Member States are expressed as percentage changes from the base-year. In 2006 the respective emission levels will be expressed in terms of tonnes of CO2-equivalents.

16. Domestic measures help curb CH4 emissions

17. EU-15: Limited effect of additional measures
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EU-15: Limited effect of additional measures
savings reported by MS. Savings from PAMs by sector in 2010 against a theoretical ‘no measures’ base line considering savings from policies and measures implemented since Only those reported are shown, therefore not comprehensive nor in line with WM or WAM projections figures.
Most savings in X and X sectors
Compared to 2005 figures for PAM savings by sector 20 less for WM and 60 less for WAM however no monitoring mechanism this year.
Data source: 4NC or latest projections as of June 6th

18. EU-10 quantified savings from PAMs
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EU-10 quantified savings from PAMs
Significant change compared to 2005 reported savings
Data source: 4NC or latest projections as of June 6th

19. EU-15 N2O emissions