1. Align Project Risk Assessment

2. Estimating Risk
There are many elements of risk
Process technical
Mechanical availability
Delivery
Environmental
Regulatory
Market
Geopolitical
Financial
Etc.
During the brainstorming phase, all potential risk areas should be considered!

3. We take a step by step approach
What can go wrong?
We take a step by step approach
What is the probability?
What is the potential impact if we do nothing?
What can we do about it?
If we act on ideas, what is the new probability?
What is the probable impact now?
What is the overall project risk profile?
Do the brainstorming by process or discipline areas

4. What is the Contribution of a unit of production?
What is our cumulative interest expense versus time?
What is our WACC?
What special costs might be incurred if we delay start-up by one week? One month? Two months?
Build the Impact Sensitivity table above in order to properly set priorities of risk.

5. Method, using the Align Risk Management Tool
Brainstorm all Risks, no numbers, just list them.
Go back, estimate the probability and impact factors of each Risk if we did nothing.
Sort, work on highest priority risks
Go back, in more detail, estimate each Risk in terms of time and money.
Go back, and develop actions that will reduce the probability and or impact of each high priority Risk.
Estimate the new lower probability and impact for each Risk if we completed all actions.

6. Tracking the Risk Profile$$
Unmitigated Risk
Mitigated Risk
Through actions we lower the risk profile
During the life of the project. The benefit of a good risk program is to develop actions to manage and lower these risks.
Time